The endowment effect

The divergence between the willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) has resulted in two explanations. First, that this may be due to the manifestation of the endowment effect (Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler, 1991). Second, the difference between WTA and WTP is directly related with the substitutability of the goods (Haneman, 1991). In this paper we show that one can observe undertrading in markets even if the WTA-WTP discrepancy is negligible. Due to underrevelation of intramarginal units very flat reported inverse supply and demand curves are obtained. As a result very small deviations in reported WTA and WTP can lead to undertrading

Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics

When we leave our closet, and engage in the common affairs of life, (reason's) conclusions seem to vanish, like the phantoms of the night on the appearance of the morning; and 'tis difficult for us to retain even that conviction, which we had attained with difficulty (Hume, 1739/, p 507). we must constantly adjust our lives, our thoughts and our emotions, in order to live simultaneously within different kinds of orders according to different rules. If we were to apply the unmodified, uncurbed rules (of caring intervention to do visible 'good') of the small band or troop, or our families to the (extended order of cooperation through markets), as our instincts and sentimental yearnings often make us wish to do, we would destroy it. Yet if we were to always apply the (noncooperative) rules of the extended order to our more intimate groupings, we would crush them. (Hayek, 1988, p 18). (Italics are his, parenthetical reductions are mine).behavioral economics; experimental economics

FAIRNESS AND SHORT RUN PRICE ADJUSTMENT IN POSTED OFFER MARKETS

Questionnaire studies show that perceptions of fairness cause people to resist price increases following abrupt changes in conditions with no cost justification. We examine this hypothesis in posted-offer markets extending previous work. Consistent with the hypothesis, in the profit disclosure (fairness) treatment prices are initially below those in the cost and the no disclosure treatments. Over time prices converge in all treatments to the competitive surplus maximizing equilibrium. Fairness is thus interpreted as being a result of expectations that are not sustainable. Expectations adapt as the market converges to the predicted competitive equilibrium.

Gross domestic product and its components in recessions

The recent economic crisis – already deservedly labeled the ‘great recession’ – continues to plague the health of the economy as a whole and has motivated us to probe its characteristic features and compare it to the typical economic downturn. Events during the boom and crash have been sharply delineated, progressing from (1) an unprecedented housing price bubble from 1997 to 2006, (2) rapid house price decline beginning early in 2007, (3) freezing of credit markets in August 2007, (4) rapid declines in equities prices and economic output by the middle of 2008, and (5) deterioration of the financial system in 2008 and an aggressive and unprecedented Federal Reserve intervention in the fall of 2008. This sequence of events has provided a fresh perspective with which to examine past economic cycles, and, we believe, is likely to change how economists, policy makers, investors, and others think about monetary policy, housing cycles, and business cycles. We find that eleven of the most recent fourteen economic downturns in the U.S. – from the great depression that began in 1929 to the great recession starting in late 2007 – were led by declines in housing investment. In these eleven downturns, housing investment declined before any other major component of GDP and its total decline before and during the recession was larger in percentage terms than the decline in any other major sector. In the 1945 recession – one of the three recessions in which housing was not implicated – national defense expenditures fell while all major components of private expenditure rose. The other two – in 1937-38 and 2001 – resulted primarily from declines in non-residential fixed investment that preceded and exceeded declines in any other major component of GDP. Figure 1 shows the percentage of GDP contributed by housing expenditures over the past 81 years. Although housing is not a large component of GDP – which may explain its limited role in accounts of recessions – it is volatile, it has declined before almost every recession, it has rarely declined substantially without a recession following soon afterward, and the extent of its decline emerges as a good predictor of the depth and duration of the recession that follows.2 In addition to its role as a leading indicator, and its volatility over the business cycle, housing investment has recovered faster than any other sector of the economy in every recession since 1921, with the single exception of the 1980 recession, which lasted only 12 months.

Managing Medicaid Pharmacy Benefits: Current Issues and Options

Examines issues and considerations for state reforms of Medicaid prescription drug reimbursement, pharmacy management, and cost sharing and other best practices for realizing savings

Status Report on the Low-Energy Demonstration Accelerator (LEDA)

The 75-keV injector and 6.7-MeV RFQ that comprise the first portion of the cw, 100-mA proton linac for the accelerator production of tritium (APT) project have been built and operated. The LEDA RFQ has been extensively tested for pulsed and cw output-beam currents <=100 mA. Up to 2.2 MW of cw rf power from the 350-MHz rf system is coupled into the RFQ, including 670 kW for the cw proton beam. The emittance for a 93-mA pulsed RFQ output beam, as determined from quadrupole-magnet-scan measurements, is ex x ey = 0.25 x 0.31 (pi mm mrad)2 [rms normalized]. A follow-on experiment, to intentionally introduce and measure beam halo on the RFQ output beam, is now being installed.Comment: Paper TUD14 for the XX International Linac Conference (LINAC2000), 3 pages, 10 figure

Sustaining Cooperation in trust Games

It is well-known in evolutionary game theory that population clustering in Prisoner Dilemma games allows some cooperative strategies to invade populations of stable defecting strategies. We adapt this idea of population clustering to a two-person trust game. Players are typed based on their recent track record as whether or not they are trusting (Players 1) and whether or not they are trustworthy (Players 2). They are then paired according to those types: trustors with trustworthy types, and similarly non-trustors with untrustworthy types. The empirical question we address is whether this adaptation of clustering to bargaining environments sustains cooperative play analogous to the situation in finitely repeated PD games.exchange, trust, reciprocity, cooperation, clustering, bargaining, experimental economics

Sustaining cooperation in trust games

It is well-known in evolutionary game theory that population clustering in Prisoner's Dilemma games allows some cooperative strategies to invade populations of stable defecting strategies. We adapt this idea of population clustering to a two-person trust game. Without knowing it, players are typed based on their recent track record as to whether or not they are trusting (Players 1) and whether or not they are trustworthy (Players 2). They are then paired according to those types: trustors with trustworthy types, and similarly non-trustors with untrustworthy types. In the control comparisons, Players 1 are randomly repaired with Players 2 without regard to type. We ask: are there natural tendencies for people to cooperate more frequently in environments in which they experience more cooperation in comparison with controls?exchange; trust; reciprocity; cooperation; clustering; bargaining; experimental economics

A Profile of Medicaid Managed Care Programs in 2010: Findings From a 50-State Survey

Examines types of Medicaid managed care organizations and contracts by state, including managed care organizations and primary care case management programs; issues for measuring, monitoring, and improving quality; and implications of health reform