Working Paper 89 - Come Rain or Shine - Integrating Climate Risk Management into African Development Bank Operations

Climate change is happening now, and further changes during the next decades are inevitable (IPCC, 2007a). During the last century, the global climate warmed by about 0.7°C. At the same time, there were distinct changes in rainfall patterns, an increase in both frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and a rise in sea levels. The impacts of these changes are already being felt, and will intensify as further changes take place. Another 2–4°C rise is projected for the current century, mostly as a result of greenhouse gases that have already been emitted. This means that, although aggressive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to prevent longer term, potentially catastrophic changes, most of the changes projected for the coming decades cannot be avoided.Africa is especially vulnerable. This is clear from the effects of current climate variability and weather extremes – such as floods, droughts and storms – which severely affect economic performance (AfDB, 2003; G8, 2005; Stern et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007b). The poor pay the highest price, because their livelihoods are most affected, and they have fewer resources to help them adapt to the changing climate. Box 1 describes some of the areas where climate change will have its most severe impacts in Africa.African policy-makers and stakeholders are beginning to recognize the need to address adaptation to climate change. There is growing awareness of the setbacks to development and poverty reduction that will result from climate change, threatening the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This was articulated in the multi-agency document ‘Poverty and Climate Change’ (AfDB, 2003), and more recently at the African Partnership Forum in May 2007 (APF, 2007). Climate change was placed on the agenda of the AU Heads of State Summit for the first time in January 2007, which resulted in the adoption of a Decision and Declaration on Climate Change and Development in Africa and in the endorsement of the Climate Information for Development – Africa (ClimDev Africa) Stakeholders Report and Implementation Strategy (GCOS, 2006).

Beyond the forecast: knowledge gaps to anticipate disasters in armed conflict areas with high forced displacement

Although conflict-affected populations are often exposed to and severely impacted by disasters, little is known about their perceptions and practices concerning early warning and early action (EWEA) or how EWEA strategies can protect communities affected by conflict- and climate-related disasters. This is particularly problematic as, due to the multiple challenges posed by conflict and compound crises in these contexts, early warnings of weather hazards do not often translate in early actions. This comprehensive literature review examined 384 peer reviewed papers produced between 2004 and 2022, focused on the 20 countries most affected by non-international armed conflict and exposed to climate hazards. This paper answers the question: what is the state of knowledge of EWEA for climate hazards in countries affected by armed conflict and high levels of forced displacement? Findings demonstrate that most research focuses on climate science rather than social science across six elements of the EWEA value chain: 1. hazards analysis, 2. understanding vulnerability and exposure, 3. warning communication and dissemination, 4. forecasting availability and monitoring, 5. early action planning, and 6. financing systems. In total, 75.65% of the research studies focused on hazard analysis, forecast availability, and monitoring. There has been a strong increase in academic research on EWEA in conflict-affected countries since 2004. However, we identify that most of this research has been in Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Nigeria which, although severely affected by conflict, also have a higher level of economic development and stability. In contrast, there is little research focused on EWEA in most of the remaining countries. Across all thematic areas, there is a lack of consideration of conflict dynamics in EWEA research. This paper contributes to evidence on the need to recognize people affected by conflict in disaster risk reduction, as called for in the Sendai Framework for Action midterm review, with the aim of enhancing EWEA investments to enable tailored approaches appropriate for conflict-affected states

On the causal interpretation of rate-change methods:the prior event rate ratio and rate difference

A growing number of studies use data before and after treatment initiation in groups exposed to different treatment strategies to estimate "causal effects" using a ratio measure called the prior event rate ratio (PERR). Here, we offer a causal interpretation for PERR and its additive scale analog, the prior event rate difference (PERD). We show that causal interpretation of these measures requires untestable rate-change assumptions about the relationship between (1) the change of the counterfactual ratebefore and after treatment initiation in the treated group under hypothetical intervention to implement the control treatment; and (2) the change of the factual rate before and after treatment initiation in the control group. The rate-change assumption is on the multiplicative scale for PERR, but on the additive scale for PERD; the two assumptions hold simultaneously under testable, but unlikely, conditions. Even if investigators can pick the most appropriate scale, the relevant rate-change assumption may not hold exactly, so we describe sensitivity analysis methods to examine how assumption violations of different magnitudes would affect study results. We illustrate the methods using data from a published study of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia

Planning for compound hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of climate information systems

Roundtable on Compound Hazards and COVID-19 What: An online panel with leading experts in compound hazard research, preparedness, and response, attended by over 80 online participants, met to discuss hazard response in the context of COVID-19. When: 30 June 2021 Where: Online, convened by the World Meteorological Organization and hosted by the American Geophysical UnionPeer Reviewed"Article signat per 12 autors/es: Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Judy Omumbo, Rachel Lowe, Maarten van Aalst, Liana O. Anderson, Erich Fischer, Charlotte Norman, Joanne Robbins, Rosa Barciela, Juli Trtanj, Rosa von Borries, and Jürg Luterbacher"Postprint (published version

Assessing Progress on Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Development Processes

Climate change threatens development and the progress needed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. In managing such risks to development, there is a significant overlap of concepts and shared goals between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) coordinating mechanisms. Since 2008, the momentum toward convergence has grown and analysis in this 2010 assessment indicates pockets and trajectories of integration that promise improved development outcomes. However, it also demonstrates continued separation of DRR, CCA and development in some geographic areas and significant structural barriers to convergence in critical institutions at different scale

Overstromingen in Malawi en Mozambique

In mid-January, Malawi and Mozambique were hit by heavy rainfall that caused major impact with hundreds dead and more than three hundred thousand displaced. A major international aid operation was set up by the United Nations and the International Red Cross to help the most affected. The question arises again and again how rare this extreme rainfall is and whether this is (partly) caused by climate change. We are working with an international group, including KNMI and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, to set up a system that can answer these kinds of questions. We will use the parts that have already been completed here to provide a partial answer to the above question and to provide insight into problems that we encounter in practice. (translated

A better climate for disaster risk management

Climate-related disasters are by far the most frequent natural disasters, exacting a heavy toll on people and economies. Their frequency and economic losses have steadily increased over the past few decades, stretching the response capacities of governments and humanitarian organizations. One of the many ways this challenge can be addressed is by making more effective use of the increasing wealth of climate information and tailoring it to the needs of those who could use it, to better predict and prepare for such disasters before they occur. Written in partnership with a range of humanitarian organizations, A Better Climate for Disaster Risk Management is the third in the Climate and Society Publication series. This issue highlights recent advances in the use of climate information to manage risks and improve livelihoods, such as new partnerships and user-designed information platforms. It draws together and analyzes experiences from 17 case studies that capture the current state of knowledge. It also highlights research innovations in technical boxes throughout the publication. A problem-solving framework is used to demonstrate the challenges and opportunities facing disaster risk managers in using climate science with a three step approach: identifying the problem, developing tools, and taking action, reflected in the chapter titles. The case studies and experiences presented in this book draw on a wealth of practical experience from within the humanitarian community. They acknowledge the enormous effort and investment by very many national and local governments, international organizations, and an increasing range of other actors in the field of climate information for disaster risk management. This publication adds to the growing body of knowledge, focusing on the experiences of a number of mostly non-governmental actors, especially the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and how through partnerships, they have helped to integrate state of the art climate science and information into improved decision-making. Exploring the use of climate information for disaster risk management, it identifies both the achievements and the obstacles associated with this endeavour. From them are distilled the lessons learned, and a series of recommendations. Of these, effective partnership is highlighted as the single most critical ingredient for success. Climate information that can be acted upon is best created in dialogue between the users and providers, and partnerships between climate scientists and disaster risk managers should promote knowledge sharing, trust, and the development of innovative solutions. Efforts to better apply climate information in disaster risk management should first focus on immediate opportunities and potential ‘quick wins’. Practical engagements can be fostered by initially concentrating on countries and regions with relatively good seasonal forecast skills, and where humanitarian decisions can be influenced to provide large and immediate returns on investment. Disaster risk managers must, however, improve their understanding of the potential as well as the limitations of climate information, as the development of realistic expectations is vital to maintaining trust in the information and those who provide it. Cases demonstrate that when climate information can be integrated into existing decision-making support tools or systems, it becomes an important piece of the information that is considered and taken up in the routine activities of disaster risk managers. The relative contribution that seasonal, decadal, and long-term trends make to current and future climate also needs to be better understood. To achieve the goal of providing relevant climate services to support disaster risk management, climate information providers such as national meteorological services must tailor their information to the problem at hand, either by refining products through iterative interaction with partners or by simplifying the presentation. Although there have been many achievements and advances, much potential remains to be realized. Herein lies the opportunity: to build trust and improve the sharing of knowledge between the providers of climate services, and those who can use those services to enhance disaster risk management, jointly reducing human suffering and achieving more sustainable development

Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems

Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social protection’s role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than on anticipation and prevention. This article argues that social protection can support more effective resilience building at scale by integrating early action and preparedness. We propose a concrete solution, namely linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to a social protection system to enable anticipatory actions based on forecast triggers and guaranteed funding ahead of a shock. Such a system may enhance scalability, timeliness, predictability and adequacy of social protection benefits. Key considerations for success of this emerging approach include sound analysis of forecast, risks, cost and benefits, and ring-fenced funding