Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Multi-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group-based cognitive behavioural approach to managing fatigue in people with multiple sclerosis

Abstract (provisional) Background Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported and debilitating symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS); approximately two-thirds of people with MS consider it to be one of their three most troubling symptoms. It may limit or prevent participation in everyday activities, work, leisure, and social pursuits, reduce psychological well-being and is one of the key precipitants of early retirement. Energy effectiveness approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing MS-fatigue, increasing self-efficacy and improving quality of life. Cognitive behavioural approaches have been found to be effective for managing fatigue in other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, and more recently, in MS. The aim of this pragmatic trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a recently developed group-based fatigue management intervention (that blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches) compared with current local practice. Methods This is a multi-centre parallel arm block-randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a six session group-based fatigue management intervention, delivered by health professionals, compared with current local practice. 180 consenting adults with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and significant fatigue levels, recruited via secondary/primary care or newsletters/websites, will be randomised to receive the fatigue management intervention or current local practice. An economic evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Primary outcomes are fatigue severity, self-efficacy and disease-specific quality of life. Secondary outcomes include fatigue impact, general quality of life, mood, activity patterns, and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes in those receiving the fatigue management intervention will be measured 1 week prior to, and 1, 4, and 12 months after the intervention (and at equivalent times in those receiving current local practice). A qualitative component will examine what aspects of the fatigue management intervention participants found helpful/unhelpful and barriers to change. Discussion This trial is the fourth stage of a research programme that has followed the Medical Research Council guidance for developing and evaluating complex interventions. What makes the intervention unique is that it blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches. A potential strength of the intervention is that it could be integrated into existing service delivery models as it has been designed to be delivered by staff already working with people with MS. Service users will be involved throughout this research. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN7651747

The pseudogap: friend or foe of high Tc?

Although nineteen years have passed since the discovery of high temperature superconductivity, there is still no consensus on its physical origin. This is in large part because of a lack of understanding of the state of matter out of which the superconductivity arises. In optimally and underdoped materials, this state exhibits a pseudogap at temperatures large compared to the superconducting transition temperature. Although discovered only three years after the pioneering work of Bednorz and Muller, the physical origin of this pseudogap behavior and whether it constitutes a distinct phase of matter is still shrouded in mystery. In the summer of 2004, a band of physicists gathered for five weeks at the Aspen Center for Physics to discuss the pseudogap. In this perspective, we would like to summarize some of the results presented there and discuss its importance in the context of strongly correlated electron systems.Comment: expanded version, 20 pages, 11 figures, to be published, Advances in Physic

Early star-forming galaxies and the reionization of the Universe

Star forming galaxies represent a valuable tracer of cosmic history. Recent observational progress with Hubble Space Telescope has led to the discovery and study of the earliest-known galaxies corresponding to a period when the Universe was only ~800 million years old. Intense ultraviolet radiation from these early galaxies probably induced a major event in cosmic history: the reionization of intergalactic hydrogen. New techniques are being developed to understand the properties of these most distant galaxies and determine their influence on the evolution of the universe.Comment: Review article appearing in Nature. This posting reflects a submitted version of the review formatted by the authors, in accordance with Nature publication policies. For the official, published version of the review, please see http://www.nature.com/nature/archive/index.htm

Elliptic Curves over Real Quadratic Fields are Modular

We prove that all elliptic curves defined over real quadratic fields are modular.Comment: 38 pages. Magma scripts available as ancillary files with this arXiv versio

Characterisation of the bacterial and fungal communities associated with different lesion sizes of Dark Spot Syndrome occurring in the Coral Stephanocoenia intersepta

The number and prevalence of coral diseases/syndromes are increasing worldwide. Dark Spot Syndrome (DSS) afflicts numerous coral species and is widespread throughout the Caribbean, yet there are no known causal agents. In this study we aimed to characterise the microbial communities (bacteria and fungi) associated with DSS lesions affecting the coral Stephanocoenia intersepta using nonculture molecular techniques. Bacterial diversity of healthy tissues (H), those in advance of the lesion interface (apparently healthy AH), and three sizes of disease lesions (small, medium, and large) varied significantly (ANOSIM R = 0.052 p,0.001), apart from the medium and large lesions, which were similar in their community profile. Four bacteria fitted into the pattern expected from potential pathogens; namely absent from H, increasing in abundance within AH, and dominant in the lesions themselves. These included ribotypes related to Corynebacterium (KC190237), Acinetobacter (KC190251), Parvularculaceae (KC19027), and Oscillatoria (KC190271). Furthermore, two Vibrio species, a genus including many proposed coral pathogens, dominated the disease lesion and were absent from H and AH tissues, making them candidates as potential pathogens for DSS. In contrast, other members of bacteria from the same genus, such as V. harveyii were present throughout all sample types, supporting previous studies where potential coral pathogens exist in healthy tissues. Fungal diversity varied significantly as well, however the main difference between diseased and healthy tissues was the dominance of one ribotype, closely related to the plant pathogen, Rhytisma acerinum, a known causal agent of tar spot on tree leaves. As the corals’ symbiotic algae have been shown to turn to a darker pigmented state in DSS (giving rise to the syndromes name), the two most likely pathogens are R. acerinum and the bacterium Oscillatoria, which has been identified as the causal agent of the colouration in Black Band Disease, another widespread coral disease

Higher serum vitamin D3 levels are associated with better cognitive test performance in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Background/Aims: Recent studies suggest that vitamin D metabolites may be important for preserving cognitive function via specific neuroprotective effects. No large studies have examined the association between vitamin D status and cognition. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we analyzed the serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3levels and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) test scores of 225 older outpatients who were diagnosed as having probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). In addition to the 25-hydroxyvitamin D3levels, we analyzed the serum vitamin B1, B6and B12levels. Results: An association was found between MMSE test scores and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3levels, with a β-coefficient of 0.05 (p = 0.01). Vitamin-D-sufficient patients had significantly higher MMSE scores as compared to vitamin-D-insufficient ones. No association was found with the other serum vitamin levels. Conclusions: These data support the idea that a relationship exists between vitamin D status and cognition in patients with probable AD. However, given the cross-sectional design of this study, no causality can be concluded. Further prospective studies are needed to specify the contribution of vitamin D status to the onset and course of cognitive decline and AD. Copyrigh

Two Energy Scales and two Quasiparticle Dynamics in the Superconducting State of Underdoped Cuprates

The superconducting state of underdoped cuprates is often described in terms of a single energy-scale, associated with the maximum of the (d-wave) gap. Here, we report on electronic Raman scattering results, which show that the gap function in the underdoped regime is characterized by two energy scales, depending on doping in opposite manners. Their ratios to the maximum critical temperature are found to be universal in cuprates. Our experimental results also reveal two different quasiparticle dynamics in the underdoped superconducting state, associated with two regions of momentum space: nodal regions near the zeros of the superconducting gap and antinodal regions. While antinodal quasiparticles quickly loose coherence as doping is reduced, coherent nodal quasiparticles persist down to low doping levels. A theoretical analysis using a new sum-rule allows us to relate the low-frequency-dependence of the Raman response to the temperature-dependence of the superfluid density, both controlled by nodal excitations.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Can sacrificial feeding areas protect aquatic plants from herbivore grazing? Using behavioural ecology to inform wildlife management

Effective wildlife management is needed for conservation, economic and human well-being objectives. However, traditional population control methods are frequently ineffective, unpopular with stakeholders, may affect non-target species, and can be both expensive and impractical to implement. New methods which address these issues and offer effective wildlife management are required. We used an individual-based model to predict the efficacy of a sacrificial feeding area in preventing grazing damage by mute swans (Cygnus olor) to adjacent river vegetation of high conservation and economic value. The accuracy of model predictions was assessed by a comparison with observed field data, whilst prediction robustness was evaluated using a sensitivity analysis. We used repeated simulations to evaluate how the efficacy of the sacrificial feeding area was regulated by (i) food quantity, (ii) food quality, and (iii) the functional response of the forager. Our model gave accurate predictions of aquatic plant biomass, carrying capacity, swan mortality, swan foraging effort, and river use. Our model predicted that increased sacrificial feeding area food quantity and quality would prevent the depletion of aquatic plant biomass by swans. When the functional response for vegetation in the sacrificial feeding area was increased, the food quantity and quality in the sacrificial feeding area required to protect adjacent aquatic plants were reduced. Our study demonstrates how the insights of behavioural ecology can be used to inform wildlife management. The principles that underpin our model predictions are likely to be valid across a range of different resource-consumer interactions, emphasising the generality of our approach to the evaluation of strategies for resolving wildlife management problems