Reference-based transitions in short-run price elasticity

Marketing literature has long recognized that price response need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on reference price type, asymmetric thresholds and sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. In this paper, we introduce smooth transition models to study reference-based price response across 25 fast moving consumer good categories. Our application to 100 brands shows that 77% demonstrate reference-based price response, of which 36% reflects historical reference prices, 31% reflects competitive reference prices, and 33% reflects both types of reference prices. This reference-based price response shows asymmetry for gains versus losses on three levels: the threshold size, the sign and the magnitude of the elasticity difference. For historical reference prices, the threshold size is larger for gains (20%) than for losses (12%) and the assimilation/contrast effects for gains (-0.41) are smaller than the saturation effects for losses (0.81). For competitive reference prices, the threshold size is smaller for gains (3%) than for losses (16%), and the saturation effects are larger for gains (0.33) than for losses (0.15). These results are moderated by both brand and category characteristics that affect reference price accessibility and diagnosticity. Historical reference prices more often play a role for national brands, for planned purchases and in inexpensive categories with low price volatility and high purchase frequency. When price discounting, high-share brands face larger latitudes of acceptance. When raising prices, saturation effects set in later for brands with high price volatility and for categories with high price spread and for planned purchases. As for competitive reference prices, saturation effects set in later for expensive brands with high price volatility and in categories with lower price volatility, higher price spread and higher concentration. Sales, revenue and margin implications are illustrated for price changes typically observed in consumer markets

Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers or Both?

While there has been strong managerial and academic interest in price promotions, much of the focus has been on the impact of such promotions on category sales, brand sales and brand choice. In contrast, little is known about the long-run impact of price promotions on manufacturer and retailer revenues and margins, although both marketing researchers and practitioners consider this a priority area (Marketing Science Institute 2000). Do promotions generate additional revenue and for whom? Which brand, category and market conditions influence promotional benefits and their allocation across manufacturers and retailers? To answer these questions, we conduct a large-scale econometric investigation of the effects of price promotions on manufacturer revenues, retailer revenues and margins. This investigation proceeds in two steps. First, persistence modeling reveals the short- and long-run effects of price promotions on these performance measures. Second, weighted least-squares analysis shows to what extent brand and promotion policies, as well as market-structure and category characteristics, influence promotional impact. A first major finding of our paper is that price promotions do not have permanent monetary effects for either party. Second, in terms of the cumulative, over-time, promotional impact on their revenues, we find significant differences between the manufacturer and retailer. Price promotions have a predominantly positive impact on manufacturer revenues, but their effects on retailer revenues are mixed. Retailer (category) margins, in contrast, are typically reduced by price promotions. Even when accounting for cross-category and store-traffic effects, we still find evidence that price promotions are typically not beneficial to the retailer. Third, our results indicate that manufacturer revenue elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands and for frequently promoted brands. Moreover, they are higher for storable products and lower in categories with a high degree of brand proliferation. Retailer revenue elasticities, in turn, are higher for brands with frequent and shallow promotions, for storable products and in categories with a low extent of brand proliferation. As such, from a revenue-generating point of view, manufacturer and retailer interests are often aligned in terms of which categories and brands to promote. Finally, retailer margin elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands and for brands with infrequent and shallow promotions. Thus, the implications with respect to the frequency of promotions depend upon the performance measure the retailer chooses to emphasize. The paper discusses the managerial implications of our results for both manufacturers and retailers and suggests various avenues for future research

Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers or Both?

While there has been strong managerial and academic interest in price promotions, much of the focus has been on the impact of such promotions on category sales, brand sales and brand choice. In contrast, little is known about the long-run impact of price promotions on manufacturer and retailer revenues and margins, although both marketing researchers and practitioners consider this a priority area (Marketing Science Institute 2000). Do promotions generate additional revenue and for whom? Which brand, category and market conditions influence promotional benefits and their allocation across manufacturers and retailers? To answer these questions, we conduct a large-scale econometric investigation of the effects of price promotions on manufacturer revenues, retailer revenues and margins. This investigation proceeds in two steps. First, persistence modeling reveals the short- and long-run effects of price promotions on these performance measures. Second, weighted least-squares analysis shows to what extent brand and promotion policies, as well as market-structure and category characteristics, influence promotional impact. A first major finding of our paper is that price promotions do not have permanent monetary effects for either party. Second, in terms of the cumulative, over-time, promotional impact on their revenues, we find significant differences between the manufacturer and retailer. Price promotions have a predominantly positive impact on manufacturer revenues, but their effects on retailer revenues are mixed. Retailer (category) margins, in contrast, are typically reduced by price promotions. Even when accounting for cross-category and store-traffic effects, we still find evidence that price promotions are typically not beneficial to the retailer. Third, our results indicate that manufacturer revenue elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands and for frequently promoted brands. Moreover, they are higher for storable products and lower in categories with a high degree of brand proliferation. Retailer revenue elasticities, in turn, are higher for brands with frequent and shallow promotions, for storable products and in categories with a low extent of brand proliferation. As such, from a revenue-generating point of view, manufacturer and retailer interests are often aligned in terms of which categories and brands to promote. Finally, retailer margin elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands and for brands with infrequent and shallow promotions. Thus, the implications with respect to the frequency of promotions depend upon the performance measure the retailer chooses to emphasize. The paper discusses the managerial implications of our results for both manufacturers and retailers and suggests various avenues for future research

When do price thresholds matter in retail categories?

Marketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This paper introduces smooth transition regression models to study threshold-based price elasticity of the top 4 brands across 20 fast-moving consumer good categories. Threshold-based price elasticity is found for 76% of all brands: 29% reflect historical benchmark prices, 16% reflect competitive benchmark prices, and 31% reflect both types of benchmarks. The authors demonstrate asymmetry for gains versus losses on three levels: the threshold size and the sign and the magnitude of the elasticity difference. Interestingly, they observe latitude of acceptance for gains compared to the historical benchmark, but saturation effects in most other cases. Moreover, category characteristics influence the extent and the nature of threshold-based price elasticity, while individual brand characteristics impact the size of the price thresholds. From a managerial perspective, the paper illustrates the sales, revenue, and margin implications for price changes typically observed in consumer markets

Consumer attitude metrics for guiding marketing mix decisions

Marketing managers often use consumer attitude metrics such as awareness, consideration, and preference as performance indicators because they represent their brand’s health and are readily connected to marketing activity. However, this does not mean that financially focused executives know how such metrics translate into sales performance, which would allow them to make beneficial marketing mix decisions. We propose four criteria – potential, responsiveness, stickiness and sales conversion – that determine the connection between marketing actions, attitudinal metrics, and sales outcomes. We test our approach with a rich dataset of four-weekly marketing actions, attitude metrics, and sales for several consumer brands in four categories over a seven-year period. The results quantify how marketing actions affect sales performance through their differential impact on attitudinal metrics, as captured by our proposed criteria. We find that marketing-attitude and attitude-sales relationships are predominantly stable over time, but differ substantially across brands and across product categories. We also establish that combining marketing and attitudinal metrics criteria improves the prediction of brand sales performance, often substantially so. Based on these insights, we provide specific recommendations on improving the marketing mix for different brands, and we validate them in a hold-out sample. For managers and researchers alike, our criteria offer a verifiable explanation for differences in marketing elasticities and an actionable connection between marketing and financial performance metrics