The Changing Trade and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Asian and Latin American Manufacture Exports

Changes in comparative advantage should reflect changes in factor endowment, but increasingly, changes in trade policies also affect a region's trade performance. Based on the arguments in Balassa's stages of comparative advantage thesis, this paper looks at the performance of manufacture exports in a number of Asian and Latin American economies over the period 1981-1997 and examines the revealed comparative advantage indices between economies in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Although the RCA measurement may not distinguish between the factor endowment effects from the trade policy effect, we argue that RCA measures provide indication on the movement in a region's comparative advantage. The evidence strongly suggests that despite the strong export performance experienced by East Asian economies, they are losing their comparative advantage to the lower-tier economies in Southeast Asia and Latin America.International Trade; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Manufacture Exports

A EMENDA DA REELEIÇÃO E A LEI DE RESPONSABILIDADE FISCAL: IMPACTOS SOBRE CICLOS POLÍTICOS E PERFORMANCE FISCAL DOS ESTADOS (1986-2002)

This paper analyses the effects of two recent institutional changes, the "Reelection Amendment" and the Law of Fiscal Responsibility, on political budget cycles and fiscal performance of Brazilian federal states. The empirical evidence shows that (1) contrarily to previous results, the Reelection increased public spending and debt level of states in electoral years; (2) the Law of Fiscal Responsibility significantly decreased the functionalism spending and capital revenue, and, on the other hand, increased the tax revenue of states.

Conflitos e convergências na ALCA numa perspectiva de vantagens comparativas reveladas de países das Américas

In this paper the industry sectors' revealed comparative advantages for 12 Americas' countries were calculated from 1981 to 1999. The countries' revealed comparative advantage patterns are then used to establish the similarity degree among these 12 countries. This similarity degree gives us both an indication of the economic costs in a commercial integration and also some insights about incentives that sub-groups of countries have to act as a group in a negotiation for commercial integration. The results show that these 12 countries can be grouped in three subsets of countries distinct to each other subset, that the economic costs of commercial integration among these 12 countries (ALCA) is relatively high, and that there is a sub-group of South American countries that are similar among them, which therefore have a natural incentive to negotiate as a group in a commercial integration process like ALCA.Neste artigo calculamos o padrão de vantagens comparativas reveladas de 12 países das Américas no período de 1981 a 1999. A partir desse padrão de vantagens comparativas reveladas averiguamos a similaridade existente entre esses países. O grau de similaridade entre países permite inferir sobre o custo econômico de ajustamentos setoriais resultantes de uma integração comercial entre eles, assim como possibilita fazer conjeturas sobre os incentivos que subgrupos de países têm para atuar conjunta e sistematicamente numa negociação comercial. Os resultados alcançados mostram que os países das Américas podem ser agrupados em três grupos distintos entre si, que o custo econômico de integração comercial entre o conjunto desses países (ALCA) é relativamente elevado e que entre os países sul-americanos há um grupo de países similares entre si, ou bloco natural. Esse grupo de países, portanto, possui um incentivo natural, pela conjugação dos interesses comerciais, para atuar conjuntamente em negociações comerciais, como a de integração regional de comércio da ALCA

Implicações da unificação europeia sobre o sistema bancario na Alemanha

Using the modern financial intermediation theory the structure and institutional characteristics of the German banking system are analysed to evaluate some of the consequences of the European unification and integration offinancial markets to the German banking system. With this purpose we describe the distinctive institutional characteristics and structure of the banking system. More over we analyse how they may be changed and what consequences they can engender under the financial intermediation theory

A emenda da reeleição e a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal: impactos sobre ciclos políticos e performance fiscal dos Estados (1986-2002)

O presente trabalho estuda o comportamento fiscal dos Estados brasileiros no período 1986-2002, analisando, em particular, o impacto de duas mudanças institucionais recentes, a Emenda da Reeleição e a Lei de Res-ponsabilidade Fiscal, sobre os ciclos políticos orçamentários e sobre a performance fiscal dos Estados. Os resultados obtidos apontam que a Emenda da Reeleição implicou a intensificação dos ciclos políticos, estimulando manipulações oportunistas durante o período eleitoral; a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, por sua vez, constituiu um instrumento efetivo para o controle do endividamento e para a redução das despesas de custeio dos Estados. Constatou-se também que a amplitude dos ciclos políticos tem diminuído ao longo do tempo, fato que poderia ser atribuído ao aprendizado do eleitorado e à experiência adquirida com eleições sucessivas, que contribuem para elevar o nível de controle político, reduzindo, assim, a intensidade dos ciclos.This paper studies the fiscal behavior of Brazilian Federal States in the period 1986-2002, focusing, in particular, on the effects of two recent institutional changes, the "Reelection Amendment" and the "Fiscal Responsibility Law", on political budget cycles and on fiscal performance. The results provide evidence that the Reelection Amendment caused intensification in political cycles, stimulating opportunistic manipulations during the electoral period; and the Fiscal Responsibility Law constituted an effective instrument to control indebtedness and to reduce functionalism spending in States. The evidence also shows that the magnitude of the political cycles has been decreasing in time, a fact that could be attributed to the electorates learning and experience in successive elections, which contribute to increase the level of political control, so reducing the intensity of the cycles

Urban Climate Under Change [UC]2 – A National Research Programme for Developing a Building-Resolving Atmospheric Model for Entire City Regions

Large cities and urban regions are confronted with rising pressure by environmental pollution, impacts of climate change, as well as natural and health hazards. They are characterised by heterogeneous mosaics of urban structures, causing modifications of atmospheric processes on different temporal and spatial scales. Planning authorities need reliable, locally relevant information on urban atmospheric processes, providing fine spatial resolutions in city quarters or street canyons, as well as projections of future climates, specifically downscaled to individual cities. Therefore, building-resolving urban climate models for entire city regions are required as tool for urban development and planning, air quality control, as well as for design of actions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. To date, building-resolving atmospheric models covering entire large cities are mostly missing. The German research programme “Urban Climate Under Change” ([UC]2) aims at developing a new urban climate model, to acquire three-dimensional observational data for model testing and validation, and to test its practicability and usability in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to provide a scientifically sound and practicable instrument to address the above mentioned challenges. This article provides an outline of the collaborative activities of the [UC]2 research programme