Comparison of AOD, AAOD and column single scattering albedo from AERONET retrievals and in situ profiling measurements

Here we present new results comparing aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) and column single scattering albedo (SSA) obtained from in situ vertical profile measurements with AERONET ground-based remote sensing from two rural, continental sites in the US. The profiles are closely matched in time (within ±3 h) and space (within 15 km) with the AERONET retrievals. We have used Level 1.5 inversion retrievals when there was a valid Level 2 almucantar retrieval in order to be able to compare AAOD and column SSA below AERONET's recommended loading constraint (AOD > 0.4 at 440 nm). While there is reasonable agreement for the AOD comparisons, the direct comparisons of in situ-derived to AERONET-retrieved AAOD (or SSA) reveal that AERONET retrievals yield higher aerosol absorption than obtained from the in situ profiles for the low aerosol optical depth conditions prevalent at the two study sites. However, it should be noted that the majority of SSA comparisons for AOD440 > 0.2 are, nonetheless, within the reported SSA uncertainty bounds. The observation that, relative to in situ measurements, AERONET inversions exhibit increased absorption potential at low AOD values is generally consistent with other published AERONET–in situ comparisons across a range of locations, atmospheric conditions and AOD values. This systematic difference in the comparisons suggests a bias in one or both of the methods, but we cannot assess whether the AERONET retrievals are biased towards high absorption or the in situ measurements are biased low. Based on the discrepancy between the AERONET and in situ values, we conclude that scaling modeled black carbon concentrations upwards to match AERONET retrievals of AAOD should be approached with caution as it may lead to aerosol absorption overestimates in regions of low AOD. Both AERONET retrievals and in situ measurements suggest there is a systematic relationship between SSA and aerosol amount (AOD or aerosol light scattering) – specifically that SSA decreases at lower aerosol loading. This implies that the fairly common assumption that AERONET SSA values retrieved at high-AOD conditions can be used to obtain AAOD at low-AOD conditions may not be valid

Emerging Asian aerosol patterns

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions over Asia are changing rapidly, both in composition and spatial distribution1. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), potential narratives of development used by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in future projections, span a range of influences of aerosols on climate over the next decades. Several of these narratives project the continuation of a trend manifested in observations since 2010, with a clear dipole between South and East Asia. The patterns of radiative forcing that result from these distributions of aerosols will differ from those of the late 20th century. They may instigate large-scale atmospheric responses that could have wide ranging impacts on climate and society well beyond the aerosol source regions. South and East Asia are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of strong seasonal variations in precipitation, high average temperature, and very high population density. Therefore, any aerosol impacts on the strength or seasonal variations in monsoon rainfall, freshwater availability, or climate extremes, will incur large societal costs. We urge the scientific community to make definite progress towards understanding and quantifying the impacts of Asian aerosols and to tackle the potentially large regional and hemispheric implications of these emerging trends

Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green's function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011-2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015-2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green's functions. © 2022. The Author(s)

Atmospheric concentrations of black carbon are substantially higher in spring than summer in the Arctic

A key driving factor behind rapid Arctic climate change is black carbon, the atmospheric aerosol that most efficiently absorbs sunlight. Our knowledge about black carbon in the Arctic is scarce, mainly limited to long-term measurements of a few ground stations and snap-shots by aircraft observations. Here, we combine observations from aircraft campaigns performed over nine years, and present vertically resolved average black carbon properties. A factor of four higher black carbon mass concentration (21.6 ng m$^{–3}$ average, 14.3 ng m$^{–3}$ median) was found in spring, compared to summer (4.7 ng m$^{–3}$ average, 3.9 ng m$^{–3}$ median). In spring, much higher inter-annual and geographic variability prevailed compared to the stable situation in summer. The shape of the black carbon size distributions remained constant between seasons with an average mass mean diameter of 202 nm in spring and 210 nm in summer. Comparison between observations and concentrations simulated by a global model shows notable discrepancies, highlighting the need for further model developments and intensified measurements

Regional and seasonal radiative forcing by perturbations to aerosol and ozone precursor emissions

Predictions of temperature and precipitation responses to changes in the anthropogenic emissions of climate forcers require the quantification of the radiative forcing exerted by those changes. This task is particularly difficult for near-term climate forcers like aerosols, methane, and ozone precursors because their short atmospheric lifetimes cause regionally and temporally inhomogeneous radiative forcings. This study quantifies specific radiative forcing, defined as the radiative forcing per unit change in mass emitted, for eight near-term climate forcers as a function of their source regions and the season of emission by using dedicated simulations by four general circulation and chemistry-transport models. Although differences in the representation of atmospheric chemistry and radiative processes in different models impede the creation of a uniform dataset, four distinct findings can be highlighted. Firstly, specific radiative forcing for sulfur dioxide and organic carbon are stronger when aerosol–cloud interactions are taken into account. Secondly, there is a lack of agreement on the sign of the specific radiative forcing of volatile organic compound perturbations, suggesting they are better avoided in climate mitigation strategies. Thirdly, the strong seasonalities of the specific radiative forcing of most forcers allow strategies to minimise positive radiative forcing based on the timing of emissions. Finally, European and shipping emissions exert stronger aerosol specific radiative forcings compared to East Asia where the baseline is more polluted. This study can therefore form the basis for further refining climate mitigation options based on regional and seasonal controls on emissions. For example, reducing summertime emissions of black carbon and wintertime emissions of sulfur dioxide in the more polluted regions is a possible way to improve air quality without weakening the negative radiative forcing of aerosols

Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019

This study focuses on implications of differences between recent global emissions inventories for simulated trends in anthropogenic aerosol abundances and radiative forcing (RF) over the 1990–2019 period. We use the ECLIPSE version 6 (ECLv6) and CEDS year 2021 release (CEDS21) as input to the chemical transport model OsloCTM3 and compare the resulting aerosol evolution to corresponding results derived with the first CEDS release, as well as to observed trends in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Using CEDS21 and ECLv6 results in a 3 % and 6 % lower global mean AOD compared to CEDS in 2014, primarily driven by differences over China and India, where the area average AOD is up to 30 % lower. These differences are considerably larger than the satellite-derived interannual variability in AOD. A negative linear trend over 2005–2017 in global AOD following changes in anthropogenic emissions is found with all three inventories but is markedly stronger with CEDS21 and ECLv6. Furthermore, we confirm that the model better captures the sign and strength of the observed AOD trend over China with CEDS21 and ECLv6 compared to using CEDS, while the opposite is the case for South Asia. We estimate a net global mean aerosol-induced RF in 2014 relative to 1990 of 0.08 W m−2 for CEDS21 and 0.12 W m−2 for ECLv6, compared to 0.03 W m−2 with CEDS. Using CEDS21, we also estimate the RF in 2019 relative to 1990 to be 0.10 W m−2, reflecting the continuing decreasing trend in aerosol loads post-2014. Our results facilitate more rigorous comparison between existing and upcoming studies of climate and health effects of aerosols using different emission inventories.</p

A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and sustainable development goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels, and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for both present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming and highlight the importance of mitigating methane emissions from agriculture, waste management, and energy production as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. We find that SLCFs are projected to play a continued role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. East Asia, North America, and Europe will remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtake Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aimed also at decision makers, to support further assessment of the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales

Centrality dependence of charged-particle pseudorapidity distributions from d+Au collisions at sqrt(s_{NN})=200 GeV

Charged-particle pseudorapidity densities are presented for the d+Au reaction at sqrt{s_{NN}}=200 GeV with -4.2 <= eta <= 4.2$. The results, from the BRAHMS experiment at RHIC, are shown for minimum-bias events and 0-30%, 30-60%, and 60-80% centrality classes. Models incorporating both soft physics and hard, perturbative QCD-based scattering physics agree well with the experimental results. The data do not support predictions based on strong-coupling, semi-classical QCD. In the deuteron-fragmentation region the central 200 GeV data show behavior similar to full-overlap d+Au results at sqrt{s_{NN}}=19.4 GeV.Comment: 4 pages, 3figures; expanded discussion of uncertainties; added 60-80% centrality range; added additional discussion on centrality selection bia