Directed acyclic graph (DAG) representing conditional independencies (by the absence of arrows) between the genetic instrument <i>Z</i>, the risk factor <i>X</i>, the outcome <i>Y</i> and the confounders <i>U</i>.

<p>Directed acyclic graph (DAG) representing conditional independencies (by the absence of arrows) between the genetic instrument <i>Z</i>, the risk factor <i>X</i>, the outcome <i>Y</i> and the confounders <i>U</i>.</p

Summary results of 2000 simulations under various situations for each of the five methods.

<p>Summary results of 2000 simulations under various situations for each of the five methods.</p

Boxplots of the log odds-ratios estimated from 2000 simulations under various situations for each of the five methods (from left to right: , , , , ).

<p>The sample size is and the proportion of compliers is . The horizontal dashed line represents the true log odds-ratio.</p

IQR of the log odds-ratios estimated from 2000 simulations under various situations for each of the five methods in function of the proportion of compliers .

<p>IQR of estimates (dashed-dotted line), (dashed line), (dotted line) and (solid line) have been divided by the IQR of estimate . The sample size is .</p

Allocation of the <i>n</i> individuals of a sample according to <i>Z</i>, <i>X</i> and <i>Y</i>.

<p>Allocation of the <i>n</i> individuals of a sample according to <i>Z</i>, <i>X</i> and <i>Y</i>.</p

Allocation of the individuals of our example according to <i>Z</i>, <i>X</i> and <i>Y</i>.

<p>Allocation of the individuals of our example according to <i>Z</i>, <i>X</i> and <i>Y</i>.</p

Flow chart of patients through the study.

<p>Flow chart of patients through the study.</p

Non-return to work: Odds ratios for the univariable, multivariable and the reduced model after random forest selection process.

<p>Odds Ratios of the different models in the development sample, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI).</p

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (upper panel) and calibration plots (lower panel).

<p>Receiver operating characteristic curves with areas under the curves (upper panel A–C) and calibration plots (lower panel, D–F). The leftmost column is from the full model in the development sample, the middle column shows the reduced model in the development sample and the right column shows the temporal external validation of the reduced model. AUC = area under the curve. N = total number of participants with complete data for the variables in the model.</p

Comparison predictive Values in the development and the validation sample.

<p>Compares diagnostic properties in the development sample with the validation sample. Threshold = Chosen cut-off for the dichotomizing in test negatives (i.e. return to work, below thresholds; non return to work, equal or above threshold).</p