Sea turtle nesting activity along Eglin Air Force Base on Cape San Blas and Santa Rosa Island, Florida from 1994 to 1997.

Along EAFB on Cape San BIas, the only sea turtle species nest observed has been the loggerhead turtle. The first green turtle nest documented along the Florida panhandle coast was observed on EAFB property, however (D. Atencio, EAFB, pers. comm). Santa Rosa Island, located approximately 150 miles west of Cape San BIas supports a small but consistent, group of nesting green turtles (Fig. 2). Although erosion is not as severe along Santa Rosa Island as it is on Cape San BIas, and vehicular traffic is not permitted, sea turtles nesting on this barrier island must survive severe tropical storms, predation, and artificial lighting to be successful. Because this area supports a rare group of nesting green turtles and is disturbed by intense artificial lighting from Air Force missions and adjacent resort towns, continued monitoring is necessary. The sea turtle species that nest along this barrier island, and the human activities that disturb those sea turtles present unique circumstances for management ofthis area. Protection ofthe significant nesting populations of sea turtles on EAFB properties on Cape San BIas and Santa Rosa Island requires yearly monitoring of the nesting activity and the natural and human disturbances influencing the nesting females. The objectives ofthis study were to monitor sea turtle nesting along EAFB on Cape San BIas to determine number of nests and hatching success, assess disturbances, and determine proper management to ensure successful nesting and hatching.(56 page document

The Cape San Blas Ecological Study

Eglin AFB on Cape San Blas consists of approximately 250 acres located about 180 miles east of the main Eglin reservation. This area lies on the S1. Joseph peninsula, part of a dynamic barrier island chain that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Due to the natural forces that formed Cape San Blas and those that maintain this area, St. Joseph Peninsula has experienced severe land form change over time (see GIS land form change maps). These changes allow for fluctuations in habitat types along Cape San Blas (see GIS land cover change maps)that influence the floral and faunal species using this area. The dynamic environment along Cape San Blasincludes flatwoods, interdunal swale, rosemary scrub, and beachfront. These habitats support a wide array of species, including several threatened and endangered species such as the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta), PipingPlover (Charadnus melodus), Least Tern (Sterna antillarum), and Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Proper management of these species and their habitats require knowledge of their abundance and distribution, and the effects disturbances have on their survival. In addition to threatened and endangered flora and fauna, Cape San Blas also supports tourists and recreationists. Although Gulf County is sparsely populated, with approximately 13,000 inhabitants throughout 578 square miles, summer tourism and heavy recreational use of beaches for fishing, crabbing, and shelling place continued and increasing pressure on the natural resources of these areas (Rupert 1991). Gulf County is also one of the few remaining counties in Florida that permits vehicular traffic on its beaches, including Cape San Blas. In addition to recreational use of these habitats;EAFB also uses the area for military missions. Air Force property on Cape San Blas is primarily used for radar tracking of flying missions over the Gulf of Mexico, although in recent years it has been used for missile launchings and other various military activities. To allow continued military and public use of Air Force property while also protecting the unique flora and fauna of the area,EAFB proposed a characterization of the resources found along Cape San Blas. A complete inventory of the physical features of the area included investigating topography, soil chemistry, hydrology, archeology, and the dynamics of land mass and land cover change over time. Various thematic layers within a geographic information system (GIS) were used to spatially portray georeferenced data. Large scale changes over time were assessed using stereo aerial photography. Vegetation transects, soil samples, elevation transects, an archeological survey, freshwater wells, and a tidal monitor were used to investigate the remaining features. (247 page document

AERIAL DIGITAL IMAGERY By LEONARD G. PEARLSTINE

xv CHAPTERS

Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models

Using Scenario Planning to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Populations and Communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise