Impact of the major SSWs of February 2018 and January 2019 on the middle atmospheric nitric oxide abundance

The Arctic middle atmosphere was affected by major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) in February 2018 and January 2019, respectively. In this article, we report for the first time the impact of these two events on the middle atmospheric nitric oxide (NO) abundance. The study is based on measurements obtained during two dedicated observation campaigns, using the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) aboard the Odin satellite, measuring NO globally since 2003. The SSW of February 2018 was similar to other, more dynamically quiet, Arctic winters in term of NO downward transport from the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere to lower altitudes (referred to as energetic particle precipitation indirect effect EPP-IE). On the contrary, the event of January 2019 led to one of the strongest EPP-IE cases observed within the Odin operational period. Important positive NO anomalies were indeed observed in the lower mesosphere–upper stratosphere during the three months following the SSW onset, corresponding to NO volume mixing ratios more than 50 times higher than the climatological values. These different consequences on the middle atmospheric composition are explained by very different dynamical characteristics of these two SSW events

Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study

The characteristics and driving mechanisms of Elevated Stratopause Events (ESEs) are examined in simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model under present and projected climate conditions. ESEs develop after sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in boreal winter. While the stratopause descends during SSWs, it is reformed at higher altitudes after the SSWs, leading to ESEs in years with a particularly high new stratopause. EMAC reproduces well the frequency and main characteristics of observed ESEs. ESEs occur in 24% of the winters, mostly after major SSWs. They develop in stable polar vortices due to a persistent tropospheric wave forcing leading to a prolonged zonal wind reversal in the lower stratosphere. By wave filtering, this enables a faster re-establishment of the mesospheric westerly jet, polar downwelling and a higher stratopause. We find the presence of a westward-propagating wavenumber-1 planetary wave in the mesosphere following the onset, consistent with in-situ generation by large-scale instability. By the end of the 21st century, the number of ESEs is projected to increase, mainly due to a sinking of the original stratopause after strong tropospheric wave forcing and planetary wave dissipation at lower levels. Future ESEs develop preferably in more intense and cold polar vortices, and tend to be shorter. While in the current climate, planetary wavenumber-2 contributes to the forcing of ESEs, future wave forcing is dominated by wavenumber-1 activity as a result of climate change. Hence, a persistent wave forcing seems to be more relevant for the development of an ESE than the wavenumber decomposition of the forcing

Arctic summer storm track in CMIP3/5 climate models

第4回極域科学シンポジウム横断セッション：[IA] 「急変する北極気候システム及びその全球的な影響の総合的解明」―GRENE北極気候変動研究事業研究成果報告2013―11月12日（火） 国立極地研究所 ２階大会議

Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw and its surface impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw (AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during late winter (February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO (AMO|−), a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO (AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low (AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|− displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe, but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|−, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+. The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|− on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|− weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.acceptedVersio

Impact of late spring Siberian snow on summer rainfall in South-Central China

Located in the Yangtze River Valley and surrounded by mountains, South-Central China (SCC) frequently suffered from natural disasters such as torrential precipitation, landslide and debris flow. Here we provide corroborative evidence for a link between the late spring (May) snow water equivalent (SWE) over Siberia and the summer (July–August, abbr. JA) rainfall in SCC. We show that, in May, anomalously low SWE over Siberia is robustly related to a large warming from the surface to the mid-troposphere, and to a stationary Rossby wave train from Siberia eastward toward the North Atlantic. On the one hand, over the North Atlantic there exhibits a tripole pattern response of sea surface temperature anomalies in May. It persists to some extent in JA and in turn triggers a wave train propagating downstream across Eurasia and along the Asian jet, as the so-called Silk Road pattern (SRP). On the other hand, over northern Siberia the drier soil occurs in JA, accompanied by an overlying anomalous anticyclone through the positive feedback. This anomalous anticyclone favors the tropospheric cooling over southern Siberia, and the meridional (northward) displacement of the Asian jet (JMD) due to the change in the meridional temperature gradient. The combination of the SRP and the JMD facilitates less water vapor transport from the tropical oceans and anomalous descending motion over SCC, and thus suppresses the precipitation. These findings indicate that May Siberian SWE can be exploited for seasonal predictability of SCC precipitation.acceptedVersio

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability phase-dependence of teleconnection between the North Atlantic Oscillation in February and the Tibetan Plateau in March

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), referred to as the “Asian water tower,” contains one of the largest land ice masses on Earth. The local glacier shrinkage and frozen-water storage are strongly affected by variations in surface air temperature over the TP (TPSAT), especially in springtime. This study reveals that the relationship between the February North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and March TPSAT is unstable with time and regulated by the phase of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The significant out-of-phase connection occurs only during the warm phase of AMV (AMV+). The results show that during the AMV+, the negative phase of the NAO persists from February to March, and is accompanied by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train trapped along a northward-shifted subtropical westerly jet stream across Eurasia, inducing an anomalous adiabatic descent that warms the TP. However, during the cold phase of the AMV, the negative NAO cannot persist into March. The Rossby wave train propagates along the well-separated polar and subtropical westerly jets, and the NAO–TPSAT connection is broken. Further investigation suggests that the enhanced synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) interaction over the North Atlantic in February and March during the AMV+, caused by the southward-shifted storm track, helps maintain the NAO pattern via positive eddy feedback. This study provides a new detailed perspective on the decadal variability of the North Atlantic–TP connection in late winter to early spring.publishedVersio

Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4$^{\circ}$N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days

Nighttime mesospheric ozone enhancements during the 2002 southern hemispheric major stratospheric warming

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) affect the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Major warmings occur roughly every second winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), but has only been observed once in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), during the Antarctic winter of 2002. Observations by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS, an instrument on board Envisat) during this rare event, show a 40% increase of ozone in the nighttime secondary ozone layer at subpolar latitudes compared to non-SSW years. This study investigates the cause of the mesospheric nighttime ozone increase, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM). The 2002 SH winter was characterized by several reductions of the strength of the polar night jet in the upper stratosphere before the jet reversed completely, marking the onset of the major SSW. At the time of these wind reductions, corresponding episodic increases can be seen in the modelled nighttime secondary ozone layer. This ozone increase is attributed largely to enhanced upwelling and the associated cooling of the altitude region in conjunction with the wind reversal. This is in correspondence to similar studies of SSW induced ozone enhancements in NH. But unlike its NH counterpart, the SH secondary ozone layer appeared to be impacted less by episodic variations in atomic hydrogen. Seasonally decreasing atomic hydrogen plays however a larger role in SH compared to NH