Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

P2-Na<inf>2/3</inf>Mn<inf>0.8</inf>M<inf>0.1</inf>M′<inf>0.1</inf>O<inf>2</inf>(M = Zn, Fe and M′ = Cu, Al, Ti): A Detailed Crystal Structure Evolution Investigation

Incorporation of various transition metals has been shown to improve the electrochemical performance of Mn-rich Na-ion cathode materials. A greater comprehension of the role of dopant ions, particularly with regard to Mn-rich layered oxides as materials for the positive electrode of Na-ion batteries, is required for their continual development. Here two similar series of Mn-rich P2 cathode materials P2-Na2/3Mn0.8M0.1M′0.1O2 (M = Fe, Zn and M′ = Cu, Al, Ti) are explored, focusing on structural analysis using high-resolution operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction. Notably, under the cycling conditions employed, no P2 to O2 phase transitions toward the charged state were identified for any of the materials investigated. Particularly stable solid solution evolution was observed for P2-Na2/3Mn0.8Zn0.1Cu0.1O2 and P2-Na2/3Mn0.8Zn0.1Al0.1O2 when cycled at 40 mA.g-1 which reflects the electrochemical properties of the materials investigated herein and illustrates that Zn is an excellent choice of dopant for Mn-rich cathode materials. Moreover, the better cyclability of P2-Na2/3Mn0.8Zn0.1Al0.1O2 compared with P2-Na2/3Mn0.8Zn0.1Cu0.1O2 is in keeping with the minimal structural changes observed. This demonstrates that although oxidation state predictions to optimize the initial Mn oxidation state are a good way of initially selecting materials, to truly exploit Mn-rich P2-type materials it is necessary to build up an in-depth understanding of both oxidation states and the associated Jahn-Teller distortion as well as the subtle interplay of synergistic and antagonistic interactions between dopants. Overall, this study illustrates the value of structural investigations to assist in the rational design and validation of novel high-performance materials; the results highlight that the interplay between dopants in addition to the average Mn oxidation state are both crucial considerations when designing high-performance Mn-rich layered oxide materials

In search of a working notion of lex sportiva

The emergence of a lex specialis regime and its interaction with the established, governing lex generalis in their overlapping spheres of application is always an intriguing legal relationship to explore. In this article, the focus will be on the development of legal principles and rules that have been/can be collectively described as lex sportiva. However, it is notable that those involved in the consideration, usage and application of this notion have not agreed as to the scope and delimitation of the concept. It is debated whether lex sportiva exists in the first place, its legal sources and its purpose. The risk is for the concept becoming redundant when not vilified as a hidden strategy to exclude non-sports-related law from the ambit of sport. Through an examination of the different propositions to the framework of the term, this article will shed light on the existence, utility and limits of the development of this conceptualisation

Quantification of the Leydig cell compartment in testicular biopsies and association with biochemical Leydig cell dysfunction in testicular cancer survivor

A simple histological method to evaluate the Leydig cell compartment is lacking. We aimed to establish such a method and to investigate if Leydig cell hyperplasia of the biopsy contralateral to the tumour-bearing testicle in patients with testicular germ cell cancer is associated with biochemical signs of Leydig cell dysfunction after long-term follow-up. A case group of 50 long-term testicular germ cell cancer survivors without human chorionic gonadotropin elevation, 10 testicular germ cell cancer patients with elevated human chorionic gonadotropin and 10 controls without testicular malignancy were included. For each subject, 2-4 representative sections from their testicular biopsies were selected for analysis. Using the image processing program ImageJ (V.1.48, NIH), an area with a minimum of 50 tubules was selected and delineated (total selected area) and the total Leydig cell area was calculated by adding up every delineated Leydig cell group within the total selected area. Four different methods were tested for the ability to quantify the Leydig cell compartment. In the 50 testicular germ cell cancer survivors, associations between the area of the Leydig cell compartment and serum levels of testosterone and luteinising hormone were investigated using linear regression analysis. The Leydig cell compartment was best quantified by the total Leydig cell area/total selected area index, which was significantly larger in the human chorionic gonadotropin-positive patients than in controls (P = 0.00001). In the 50 human chorionic gonadotropin-negative testicular germ cell cancer survivors, increasing total Leydig cell area/total selected area was significantly associated with decreased levels of total testosterone and decreased total testosterone/luteinising hormone ratio after a median of 9-year follow-up. In conclusion, a new simple method, total Leydig cell area/total selected area, was established to estimate the Leydig cell compartment in testicular biopsies. The index identified Leydig cell hyperplasia in the contralateral biopsy in patients with testicular germ cell cancer, and it was associated with long-term biochemical Leydig cell dysfunction. Although in testicular germ cell cancer survivors, the clinical value is limited because the contralateral biopsies are not commonly available, we propose a closer andrological follow-up in any patient with an increased total Leydig cell area/total selected area index

The influence of 'significant others' on persistent back pain and work participation: a qualitative exploration of illness perceptions

Background Individual illness perceptions have been highlighted as important influences on clinical outcomes for back pain. However, the illness perceptions of 'significant others' (spouse/partner/close family member) are rarely explored, particularly in relation to persistent back pain and work participation. The aim of this study was to initiate qualitative research in this area in order to further understand these wider influences on outcome. Methods Semi-structured interviews based on the chronic pain version of the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-Revised were conducted with a convenience sample of UK disability benefit claimants, along with their significant others (n=5 dyads). Data were analysed using template analysis. Results Significant others shared, and perhaps further reinforced, claimants' unhelpful illness beliefs including fear of pain/re-injury associated with certain types of work and activity, and pessimism about the likelihood of return to work. In some cases, significant others appeared more resigned to the permanence and negative inevitable consequences of the claimant's back pain condition on work participation, and were more sceptical about the availability of suitable work and sympathy from employers. In their pursuit of authenticity, claimants were keen to stress their desire to work whilst emphasising how the severity and physical limitations of their condition prevented them from doing so. In this vein, and seemingly based on their perceptions of what makes a 'good' significant other, significant others acted as a 'witness to pain', supporting claimants' self-limiting behaviour and statements of incapacity, often responding with empathy and assistance. The beliefs and responses of significant others may also have been influenced by their own experience of chronic illness, thus participants lives were often intertwined and defined by illness. Conclusions The findings from this exploratory study reveal how others and wider social circumstances might contribute both to the propensity of persistent back pain and to its consequences. This is an area that has received little attention to date, and wider support of these findings may usefully inform the design of future intervention programmes aimed at restoring work participation

Monitoring health inequalities: life expectancy and small area deprivation in New Zealand

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in health are of great concern, and life expectancy provides a readily understood means of monitoring such inequalities. The objectives of this study are to (1) measure life expectancy by socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity, and (2) describe trends in the deprivation gradient in life expectancy since the mid-1990s. METHODS: Three years of national mortality data have been combined with mid-point population denominators to produce life tables within nationally determined levels of small area deprivation (NZDep96) for three ethnic group: European, Mäori and Pacific peoples. This process has been repeated for the periods 1995–97, 1996–98, 1997–99 and 1998–2000. RESULTS: There was a strong relationship between increasing small area deprivation and decreasing life expectancy. Through the mid- to late 1990s, males living in the most deprived small areas in New Zealand experienced life expectancies at birth approximately nine years less than their counterparts living in the least deprived areas; for females the corresponding difference was under seven years. Mäori and Pacific life expectancies at birth were lower than those of Europeans at each level of deprivation. Over the study period (1995–2000) the gradient in life expectancy across deprivation deciles remained stable. CONCLUSION: Small area deprivation analyses of life expectancy could be repeated routinely at regular intervals, which would provide a useful approach to monitoring trends in socioeconomic, geographic, ethnic and gender inequalities in mortality

Secondary Sex Ratio among Women Exposed to Diethylstilbestrol in Utero

BACKGROUND. Diethylstilbestrol (DES), a synthetic estrogen widely prescribed to pregnant women during the mid-1900s, is a potent endocrine disruptor. Previous studies have suggested an association between endocrine-disrupting compounds and secondary sex ratio. METHODS. Data were provided by women participating in the National Cancer Institute (NCI) DES Combined Cohort Study. We used generalized estimating equations to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the relation of in utero DES exposure to sex ratio (proportion of male births). Models were adjusted for maternal age, child's birth year, parity, and cohort, and accounted for clustering among women with multiple pregnancies. RESULTS. The OR for having a male birth comparing DES-exposed to unexposed women was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.95-1.17). For exposed women with complete data on cumulative DES dose and timing (33%), those first exposed to DES earlier in gestation and to higher doses had the highest odds of having a male birth. The ORs were 0.91 (95% C, 0.65-1.27) for first exposure at ≥ 13 weeks gestation to < 5 g DES; 0.95 (95% CI, 0.71-1.27) for first exposure at ≥ 13 weeks to ≥ 5 g; 1.16 (95% CI, 0.96-1.41) for first exposure at < 13 weeks to < 5 g; and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.04-1.48) for first exposure at < 13 weeks to ≥ 5 g compared with no exposure. Results did not vary appreciably by maternal age, parity, cohort, or infertility history. CONCLUSIONS. Overall, no association was observed between in utero DES exposure and secondary sex ratio, but a significant increase in the proportion of male births was found among women first exposed to DES earlier in gestation and to a higher cumulative dose.National Cancer Institute (N01-CP-21168, N01-CP-51017, N01-CP-01289

The Leeds Evaluation of Efficacy of Detoxification Study (LEEDS) project: An open-label pragmatic randomised control trial comparing the efficacy of differing therapeutic agents for primary care detoxification from either street heroin or methadone [ISRCTN07752728]

BACKGROUND: Heroin is a synthetic opioid with an extensive illicit market leading to large numbers of people becoming addicted. Heroin users often present to community treatment services requesting detoxification and in the UK various agents are used to control symptoms of withdrawal. Dissatisfaction with methadone detoxification [8] has lead to the use of clonidine, lofexidine, buprenorphine and dihydrocodeine; however, there remains limited evaluative research. In Leeds, a city of 700,000 people in the North of England, dihydrocodeine is the detoxification agent of choice. Sublingual buprenorphine, however, is being introduced. The comparative value of these two drugs for helping people successfully and comfortably withdraw from heroin has never been compared in a randomised trial. Additionally, there is a paucity of research evaluating interventions among drug users in the primary care setting. This study seeks to address this by randomising drug users presenting in primary care to receive either dihydrocodeine or buprenorphine. METHODS/DESIGN: The Leeds Evaluation of Efficacy of Detoxification Study (LEEDS) project is a pragmatic randomised trial which will compare the open use of buprenorphine with dihydrocodeine for illicit opiate detoxification, in the UK primary care setting. The LEEDS project will involve consenting adults and will be run in specialist general practice surgeries throughout Leeds. The primary outcome will be the results of a urine opiate screening at the end of the detoxification regimen. Adverse effects and limited data to three and six months will be acquired

Recommendations for exercise adherence measures in musculoskeletal settings : a systematic review and consensus meeting (protocol)

Background: Exercise programmes are frequently advocated for the management of musculoskeletal disorders; however, adherence is an important pre-requisite for their success. The assessment of exercise adherence requires the use of relevant and appropriate measures, but guidance for appropriate assessment does not exist. This research will identify and evaluate the quality and acceptability of all measures used to assess exercise adherence within a musculoskeletal setting, seeking to reach consensus for the most relevant and appropriate measures for application in research and/or clinical practice settings. Methods/design: There are two key stages to the proposed research. First, a systematic review of the quality and acceptability of measures used to assess exercise adherence in musculoskeletal disorders; second, a consensus meeting. The systematic review will be conducted in two phases and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to ensure a robust methodology. Phase one will identify all measures that have been used to assess exercise adherence in a musculoskeletal setting. Phase two will seek to identify published and unpublished evidence of the measurement and practical properties of identified measures. Study quality will be assessed against the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) guidelines. A shortlist of best quality measures will be produced for consideration during stage two: a meeting of relevant stakeholders in the United Kingdom during which consensus on the most relevant and appropriate measures of exercise adherence for application in research and/or clinical practice settings will be sought. Discussion: This study will benefit clinicians who seek to evaluate patients’ levels of exercise adherence and those intending to undertake research, service evaluation, or audit relating to exercise adherence in the musculoskeletal field. The findings will impact upon new research studies which aim to understand the factors that predict adherence with exercise and which test different adherence-enhancing interventions. PROSPERO reference: CRD4201300621