Circular Regression Trees and Forests with an Application to Probabilistic Wind Direction Forecasting

While circular data occur in a wide range of scientific fields, the methodology for distributional modeling and probabilistic forecasting of circular response variables is rather limited. Most of the existing methods are built on the framework of generalized linear and additive models, which are often challenging to optimize and to interpret. Therefore, we suggest circular regression trees and random forests as an intuitive alternative approach that is relatively easy to fit. Building on previous ideas for trees modeling circular means, we suggest a distributional approach for both trees and forests yielding probabilistic forecasts based on the von Mises distribution. The resulting tree-based models simplify the estimation process by using the available covariates for partitioning the data into sufficiently homogeneous subgroups so that a simple von Mises distribution without further covariates can be fitted to the circular response in each subgroup. These circular regression trees are straightforward to interpret, can capture nonlinear effects and interactions, and automatically select the relevant covariates that are associated with either location and/or scale changes in the von Mises distribution. Combining an ensemble of circular regression trees to a circular regression forest yields a local adaptive likelihood estimator for the von Mises distribution that can regularize and smooth the covariate effects. The new methods are evaluated in a case study on probabilistic wind direction forecasting at two Austrian airports, considering other common approaches as a benchmark

Remember the past: a comparison of time-adaptive training schemes for non-homogeneous regression

Non-homogeneous regression is a frequently used post-processing method for increasing the predictive skill of probabilistic ensemble weather forecasts. To adjust for seasonally varying error characteristics between ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations, different timeadaptive training schemes, including the classical sliding training window, have been developed for non-homogeneous regression. This study compares three such training approaches with the sliding-window approach for the application of post-processing near-surface air temperature forecasts across central Europe. The predictive performance is evaluated conditional on three different groups of stations located in plains, in mountain foreland, and within mountainous terrain, as well as on a specific change in the ensemble forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) used as input for the post-processing. The results show that time-adaptive training schemes using data over multiple years stabilize the temporal evolution of the coefficient estimates, yielding an increased predictive performance for all station types tested compared to the classical sliding-window approach based on the most recent days only. While this may not be surprising under fully stable model conditions, it is shown that “remembering the past” from multiple years of training data is typically also superior to the classical sliding-window approach when the ensemble prediction system is affected by certain model changes. Thus, reducing the variance of the non-homogeneous regression estimates due to increased training data appears to be more important than reducing its bias by adapting rapidly to the most current training data only

Clinical implications of AGR2 in primary prostate cancer: Results from a large-scale study

Human anterior gradient-2 (AGR2) has been implicated in carcinogenesis of various solid tumours, but the expression data in prostate cancer are contradictory regarding its prognostic value. The objective of this study is to evaluate the expression of AGR2 in a large prostate cancer cohort and to correlate it with clinicopathological data. AGR2 protein expression was analysed immunohistochemically in 1023 well-characterized prostate cancer samples with a validated antibody. AGR2 expression levels in carcinomas were compared with matched tissue samples of adjacent normal glands. AGR2 expression levels were dichotomized and tested for statistical significance. Increased AGR2 expression was found in 93.5% of prostate cancer cases. AGR2 levels were significantly higher in prostate cancer compared with normal prostate tissue. A gradual loss of AGR2 expression was associated with increasing tumour grade (ISUP), and AGR2 expression is inversely related to patient survival, however, multivariable significance is not achieved. AGR2 is clearly upregulated in the majority of prostate cancer cases, yet a true diagnostic value appears unlikely. In spite of the negative correlation of AGR2 expression with increasing tumour grade, no independent prognostic significance was found in this large-scale study

The Loop Tenodesis Procedure—From Biomechanics to First Clinical Results

(1) Introduction: Several surgical therapy options for the treatment of pathologies of the long biceps tendon (LHB) have been established. However, tenotomy, as well as established tenodesis techniques, has disadvantages, such as cosmetic deformities, functional impairments and residual shoulder pain. This study presents the first clinical and structural results of the recently introduced loop tenodesis procedure for the LHB, developed to overcome these issues. (2) Methods: 37 patients (11 women, 26 men, mean age 52 years), who underwent loop tenodesis of the LHB were examined six months after surgery. For the clinical evaluation the Constant score, as well as the LHB score, were used, complemented by elbow flexion and supination strength measurements. The integrity of the tenodesis construct was evaluated indirectly by sonographic detection of the LHB in the bicipital groove. (3) Results: Both, the overall Constant score as well as the LHB score showed significant improvements six months postoperatively, as compared to the preoperative value. Fourteen patients (38%) presented an examiner-dependent upper arm deformity, although only five patients (13%) reported subjective cosmetic deformities. Both, flexion and supination strength were preserved compared to the preoperative level. In 35 patients (95%), the tenodesis in the bicipital groove was proofed sonographically. (4) Conclusion: The loop tenodesis of the LHB provides good-to-excellent overall clinical results after a short-term follow-up of six month. The incidence of cosmetic deformities was inferior compared to conventional therapy options (tenotomy and anchor tenodesis)

Introgression and dispersal among spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) subspecies

Population genetics plays an increasingly important role in the conservation and management of declining species, particularly for defining taxonomic units. Subspecies are recognized by several conservation organizations and countries and receive legal protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). Two subspecies of spotted owls, northern (Strix occidentalis caurina) and Mexican (S. o. lucida) spotted owls, are ESA-listed as threatened, but the California (S. o. occidentalis) spotted owl is not listed. Thus, determining the boundaries of these subspecies is critical for effective enforcement of the ESA. We tested the validity of previously recognized spotted owl subspecies by analysing 394 spotted owls at 10 microsatellite loci. We also tested whether northern and California spotted owls hybridize as suggested by previous mitochondrial DNA studies. Our results supported current recognition of three subspecies. We also found bi-directional hybridization and dispersal between northern and California spotted owls centered in southern Oregon and northern California. Surprisingly, we also detected introgression of Mexican spotted owls into the range of northern spotted owls, primarily in the northern part of the subspecies’ range in Washington, indicating long-distance dispersal of Mexican spotted owls. We conclude with a discussion of the conservation implications of our study

A Passerine Bird's Evolution Corroborates the Geologic History of the Island of New Guinea

New Guinea is a biologically diverse island, with a unique geologic history and topography that has likely played a role in the evolution of species. Few island-wide studies, however, have examined the phylogeographic history of lowland species. The objective of this study was to examine patterns of phylogeographic variation of a common and widespread New Guinean bird species (Colluricincla megarhyncha). Specifically, we test the mechanisms hypothesized to cause geographic and genetic variation (e.g., vicariance, isolation by distance and founder-effect with dispersal). To accomplish this, we surveyed three regions of the mitochondrial genome and a nuclear intron and assessed differences among 23 of the 30 described subspecies from throughout their range. We found support for eight highly divergent lineages within C. megarhyncha. Genetic lineages were found within continuous lowland habitat or on smaller islands, but all individuals within clades were not necessarily structured by predicted biogeographic barriers. There was some evidence of isolation by distance and potential founder-effects. Mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence among lineages was at a level often observed among different species or even genera of birds (5–11%), suggesting lineages within regions have been isolated for long periods of time. When topographical barriers were associated with divergence patterns, the estimated divergence date for the clade coincided with the estimated time of barrier formation. We also found that dispersal distance and range size are positively correlated across lineages. Evidence from this research suggests that different phylogeographic mechanisms concurrently structure lineages of C. megarhyncha and are not mutually exclusive. These lineages are a result of evolutionary forces acting at different temporal and spatial scales concordant with New Guinea's geological history

Resolving taxonomic uncertainty in vulnerable elasmobranchs : are the Madeira skate (Raja maderensis) and the thornback ray (Raja clavata) distinct species?

Skates and rays constitute the most speciose group of chondrichthyan fishes, yet are characterised by remarkable levels of morphological and ecological conservatism. They can be challenging to identify, which makes monitoring species compositions for fisheries management purposes problematic. Owing to their slow growth and low fecundity, skates are vulnerable to exploitation and species exhibiting endemism or limited ranges are considered to be the most at risk. The Madeira skate Raja maderensis is endemic and classified as ‘Data Deficient’ by the IUCN, yet its taxonomic distinctiveness from the morphologically similar and more wide-ranging thornback ray Raja clavate is unresolved. This study evaluated the sequence divergence of both the variable control region and cytochrome oxidase I ‘DNA barcode’ gene of the mitochondrial genome to elucidate the genetic differentiation of specimens identified as R. maderensis and R. clavate collected across much of their geographic ranges. Genetic evidence was insufficient to support the different species designations. However regardless of putative species identification, individuals occupying waters around the Azores and North African Seamounts represent an evolutionarily significant unit worthy of special consideration for conservation management

Suppression of intratumoral CCL22 by type I interferon inhibits migration of regulatory T cells and blocks cancer progression

The chemokine CCL22 is abundantly expressed in many types of cancer and is instrumental for intratumoral recruitment of regulatory T cells (Treg), an important subset of immunosuppressive and tumor-promoting lymphocytes. In this study, we offer evidence for a generalized strategy to blunt Treg activity that can limit immune escape and promote tumor rejection. Activation of innate immunity with Toll-like receptor (TLR) or RIG-I-like receptor (RLR) ligands prevented accumulation of Treg in tumors by blocking their immigration. Mechanistic investigations indicated Treg blockade was a consequence of reduced intratumoral CCL22 levels caused by type I interferon. Notably, stable expression of CCL22 abrogated the antitumor effects of treatment with RLR or TLR ligands. Taken together, our findings argue that type I interferon blocks the Treg-attracting chemokine CCL22 and thus helps limit the recruitment of Treg to tumors, a finding with implications for cancer immunotherapy