Adaptive regression modeling of biomarkers of potential harm in a population of U.S. adult cigarette smokers and nonsmokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This article describes the data mining analysis of a clinical exposure study of 3585 adult smokers and 1077 nonsmokers. The analysis focused on developing models for four biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH): white blood cell count (WBC), 24 h urine 8-epi-prostaglandin F_2α(EPI8), 24 h urine 11-dehydro-thromboxane B₂(DEH11), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Random Forest was used for initial variable selection and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline was used for developing the final statistical models</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis resulted in the generation of models that predict each of the BOPH as function of selected variables from the smokers and nonsmokers. The statistically significant variables in the models were: platelet count, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, triglycerides, race and biomarkers of exposure to cigarette smoke for WBC (R-squared = 0.29); creatinine clearance, liver enzymes, weight, vitamin use and biomarkers of exposure for EPI8 (R-squared = 0.41); creatinine clearance, urine creatinine excretion, liver enzymes, use of Non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs, vitamins and biomarkers of exposure for DEH11 (R-squared = 0.29); and triglycerides, weight, age, sex, alcohol consumption and biomarkers of exposure for HDL (R-squared = 0.39).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Levels of WBC, EPI8, DEH11 and HDL were statistically associated with biomarkers of exposure to cigarette smoking and demographics and life style factors. All of the predictors togather explain 29%-41% of the variability in the BOPH.</p

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage

Smokeless tobacco mortality risks: an analysis of two contemporary nationally representative longitudinal mortality studies

Abstract Background Assessments supporting smokeless tobacco (SLT) disease risk are generally decades old. Newer epidemiological data may more accurately represent the health risks associated with contemporary US-based SLT products, many of which contain lower levels of hazardous and potentially hazardous chemicals compared to previously available SLT products. Methods Data from two longitudinal datasets (National Longitudinal Mortality Study—NLMS, and the National Health Interview Survey—NHIS) were analyzed to determine potential associations between SLT use and/or cigarette smoking and all-cause and disease-specific mortality. Mortality hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model applied to various groups, including never users of any tobacco or SLT product, and current and former SLT users and/or cigarette smokers. Results The two datasets yielded consistent findings with similar patterns evident for the specific causes of death measured. All-cause mortality risk for exclusive SLT users was significantly lower than that observed for exclusive cigarette smokers and dual SLT/cigarette users. Similar trends were found for mortality from diseases of the heart, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and malignant neoplasms. Mortality risk for lung cancer in exclusive cigarette smokers was increased by about 12-fold over never-tobacco users but was rarely present in exclusive SLT users in either survey (NHIS, < 5 cases/1,563 observations; NLMS, 3 cases/1,863 observations). While the data in the surveys are limited, SLT use by former cigarette smokers was not associated with an increase in the lung cancer risk HR compared to that by former cigarette smokers who never used SLT. Conclusions Emerging epidemiological data provides a new perspective on the health risks of SLT use compared to risks associated with cigarette smoking. HR estimates derived from two current US datasets, which include data on contemporary tobacco products, demonstrate a clear mortality risk differential between modern SLT products and cigarettes. Cigarette smokers had an increased overall mortality risk and risk for several disease-specific causes of death, while SLT users consistently had lower mortality risks

A Well-Mixed Computational Model for Estimating Room Air Levels of Selected Constituents from E-Vapor Product Use

Concerns have been raised in the literature for the potential of secondhand exposure from e-vapor product (EVP) use. It would be difficult to experimentally determine the impact of various factors on secondhand exposure including, but not limited to, room characteristics (indoor space size, ventilation rate), device specifications (aerosol mass delivery, e-liquid composition), and use behavior (number of users and usage frequency). Therefore, a well-mixed computational model was developed to estimate the indoor levels of constituents from EVPs under a variety of conditions. The model is based on physical and thermodynamic interactions between aerosol, vapor, and air, similar to indoor air models referred to by the Environmental Protection Agency. The model results agree well with measured indoor air levels of nicotine from two sources: smoking machine-generated aerosol and aerosol exhaled from EVP use. Sensitivity analysis indicated that increasing air exchange rate reduces room air level of constituents, as more material is carried away. The effect of the amount of aerosol released into the space due to variability in exhalation was also evaluated. The model can estimate the room air level of constituents as a function of time, which may be used to assess the level of non-user exposure over time

Determination of Selected Chemical Levels in Room Air and on Surfaces after the Use of Cartridge- and Tank-Based E-Vapor Products or Conventional Cigarettes

There is an ongoing debate regarding the potential of secondhand exposure of non-users to various chemicals from use of e-vapor products (EVPs). Room air levels of 34 chemicals (nicotine, propylene glycol (PG), glycerol, 15 carbonyl chemicals, 12 volatile organic chemicals (VOCs), and four selected trace elements) were measured where EVPs and cigarettes were used by n = 37 healthy adult tobacco users in an exposure chamber. The products used were MarkTen® 2.5% Classic (Group I), a Prototype GreenSmoke® 2.4% (Group II), Ego-T® Tank with subjects’ own e-liquids (Group III) and subjects’ own conventional cigarettes (Group IV). Products were used under controlled conditions and 4-h ad libitum use. Background (without subjects) and baseline levels (with subjects) were measured. Cumulative 4-h. levels of nicotine, PG and glycerol measured were several-fold below the time-weighted average limits used in workplace exposure evaluation. Most the other chemicals (&gt;75%) were at or below the limit of quantification during EVP use. Significant levels of chemicals (17 out of 34) were observed in Group IV. Overall, our results indicate that under the study conditions with the products tested, cumulative room air levels of the selected chemicals measured over 4-h were relatively small and were several-fold below the current occupational regulatory and consensus limits

A Computational Model for Assessing the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Claim on an Existing Smokeless Tobacco Product

Computational models are valuable tools for predicting the population effects prior to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorization of a modified risk claim on a tobacco product. We have developed and validated a population model using best modeling practices. Our model consists of a Markov compartmental model based on cohorts starting at a defined age and followed up to a specific age accounting for 29 tobacco-use states based on a cohort members transition pathway. The Markov model is coupled with statistical mortality models and excess relative risk ratio estimates to determine survival probabilities from use of smokeless tobacco. Our model estimates the difference in premature deaths prevented by comparing Base Case (&#8220;world-as-is&#8222;) and Modified Case (the most likely outcome given that a modified risk claim is authorized) scenarios. Nationally representative transition probabilities were used for the Base Case. Probabilities of key transitions for the Modified Case were estimated based on a behavioral intentions study in users and nonusers. Our model predicts an estimated 93,000 premature deaths would be avoided over a 60-year period upon authorization of a modified risk claim. Our sensitivity analyses using various reasonable ranges of input parameters do not indicate any scenario under which the net benefit could be offset entirely