Estudio de la relación entre Índice de Crecimiento e Índices de Vegetación para el género pinus durante el periodo 2000-2014

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la relación entre el índice de crecimiento obtenido a través de métodos dendrocronológicos y las diferentes variables obtenidas desde el sensor MODIS y su producto MOD13Q1 encargado de los índices de vegetación. La metodología se ha centrado en la descarga, pre-tratamiento y extracción de datos de las imágenes necesarias para el estudio y un posterior análisis estadístico de los datos obtenidos. Se ha realizado un estudio de las series temporales a través del programa "TIMESAT" permitiendo observar el comienzo y final de los periodos de crecimiento, su valor base o su valor más alto, además de su amplitud y duración. Posteriormente se ha realizado un estudio estadístico a través del análisis de correlación bivariada. Las principales conclusiones obtenidas son: a) las coníferas tienen una amplia distribución y una gran capacidad de adaptación a las condiciones climáticas y por lo tanto es complicado dar respuestas biológicas generalizadas espacialmente a los resultados estadísticos, b) a través del estudio estadístico de correlación se ha comprobado como a pesar de la complejidad antes descrita, se observa para algunas variables de las obtenidas desde el sensor correlación positiva, c) la elaboración de cartografías ha permitido mostrar alguno de los patrones de agrupación de especies con correlaciones en las variables

When Density Matters: The Spatial Balance between Early and Latewood

Understanding the influence of the current climate on the distribution, composition, and carbon storage capacity of Mediterranean tree species is key to determining future pathways under a warmer and drier climate scenario. Here, we evaluated the influence of biotic and environmental factors on earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) growth in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.). Our investigation was based on a dense dendrochronological network (71 sites), which covered the entire distribution area of the species in the Iberian Peninsula (around 119.652 km2), and a high-resolution climate dataset of the Western Mediterranean area. We used generalized linear-mixed models to determine the spatial and temporal variations of EW and LW across the species distribution. Our results showed an intense but differentiated climatic influence on both EW and LW growth components. The climatic influence explained significant variations across the environmental gradients in the study area, which suggested an important adaptation through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to varying climatic conditions. In addition, we detected a clear spatial trade-off between efficiency and safety strategy in the growth patterns across the species distribution. Additionally, in more productive areas, the trees presented a higher proportion of EW (more efficient to water transport), while, in more xeric conditions, the LW proportion increased (more safety to avoid embolisms), implying an adaptation to more frequent drought episodes and a higher capacity of carbon depletion. We therefore concluded that Mediterranean forests adapted to dryer conditions might be more efficient as carbon reservoirs than forests growing in wetter areas. Finally, we advocated for the need to consider wood density (EW/LW proportion) when modeling current and future forest carbon sequestrations

Assessing earlywood-latewood proportion influence on tree-ring stable isotopes

Tree-ring stable isotopes are typically measured in latewood cellulose to mitigate potential carry-over effects from previous year storage pools. The isotopic composition of individual tree-ring segments is thought to include considerable intra-annual variability. This sampling strategy may be complicated by steep intra-annual isotope gradients that can rival the inter-annual variability, however. Consistent sampling of latewood material may not always be possible due to low sample availability or high prevalence of narrow rings or low amounts of latewood because of species-specific changes in ring width. Therefore, years that contain samples with higher portions of non-latewood (earlywood) material may influence the final chronology of isotopic variability. Here, we analyze the potential influence that changing earlywood and latewood components of individual tree rings can have on stable carbon and oxygen records from Quercus spp. and Pinus heldreichii chronologies. Analysis of stable isotopes in oak tree rings with varying amounts of latewood show no statistically significant differences in the range of isotopic composition, nor any major differences when considering the same calendric year. Similar results were found for the pine data, when comparing stable isotope measurements with earlywood-to-latewood ratio and maximum density. We argue that this simple approach should be applied to any long-term tree-ring stable isotope record in order to provide a better understanding of the potential biases that could arise from previously recorded intra-annual variability in the wood

Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Study region: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe. Study focus: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, understanding changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July–September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. New hydrological insights for the region: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that pre-instrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends

Spatio-temporal assessment of beech growth in relation to climate extremes in Slovenia – An integrated approach using remote sensing and tree-ring data

Climate change is predicted to affect tree growth due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme events such as ice storms, droughts and heatwaves. Yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty on how trees respond to an increase in frequency of extreme events. Use of both ground-based wood increment (i.e. ring width) and remotely sensed data (i.e. vegetation indices) can be used to scale-up ground measurements, where there is a link between the two, but this has only been demonstrated in a few studies. We used tree-ring data together with crown features derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to assess the effect of extreme climate events on the growth of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Slovenia. We found evidence that years with climate extremes during the growing season (drought, high temperatures) had a lower ring width index (RWI) but we could not find such evidence for the remotely sensed EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index). However, when assessing specific events where leaf burning or wilting has been reported (e.g. August 2011) we did see large EVI anomalies. This implies that the impact of drought or heatwave events cannot be captured by EVI anomalies until physical damage on the canopy is caused. This also means that upscaling the effect of climate extremes on RWI by using EVI anomalies is not straightforward. An exception is the 2014 ice storm that caused a large decline in both RWI and EVI. Extreme climatic parameters explained just a small part of the variation in both RWI and EVI by, which could indicate an effect of other climate variables (e.g. late frost) or biotic stressors such as insect outbreaks. Furthermore, we found that RWI was lower in the year after a climate extreme occurred in the late summer. Most likely due to the gradual increase in temperature and more frequent drought we found negative trends in RWI and EVI. EVI maps could indicate where beech is sensitive to climate changes and could be used for planning mitigation interventions. Logical next steps should focus on a tree-based understanding of the short -and long-term effects of climate extremes on tree growth and survival, taking into account differential carbon allocation to the crown (EVI) and to wood-based variables. This research highlights the value of an integrated approach for upscaling tree-based knowledge to the forest level

Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests

The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.Additional co-authors: Ernst van der Maaten, Sjepan Mikac, Bat-Enerel Banzragch, Wolfgang Beck, Hugues Claessens, Vojtěch Čada, Katarina Čufar, Choimaa Dulamsuren, Jozica Gričar, Eustaquio Gil-Pelegrín, Pavel Janda, Marko Kazimirovic, Juergen Kreyling, Nicolas Latte, Christoph Leuschner, Luis Alberto Longares, Annette Menzel, Maks Merela, Renzo Motta, Lena Muffler, Paola Nola, Any Mary Petritan, Ion Catalin Petritan, Peter Prislan, Álvaro Rubio-Cuadrado, Miloš Rydval, Branko Stajić, Miroslav Svoboda, Elvin Toromani, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Martin Wilmking, Tzvetan Zlatanov & Martin de Lui

Partial asynchrony of coniferous forest carbon sources and sinks at the intra-annual time scale.

As major terrestrial carbon sinks, forests play an important role in mitigating climate change. The relationship between the seasonal uptake of carbon and its allocation to woody biomass remains poorly understood, leaving a significant gap in our capacity to predict carbon sequestration by forests. Here, we compare the intra-annual dynamics of carbon fluxes and wood formation across the Northern hemisphere, from carbon assimilation and the formation of non-structural carbon compounds to their incorporation in woody tissues. We show temporally coupled seasonal peaks of carbon assimilation (GPP) and wood cell differentiation, while the two processes are substantially decoupled during off-peak periods. Peaks of cambial activity occur substantially earlier compared to GPP, suggesting the buffer role of non-structural carbohydrates between the processes of carbon assimilation and allocation to wood. Our findings suggest that high-resolution seasonal data of ecosystem carbon fluxes, wood formation and the associated physiological processes may reduce uncertainties in carbon source-sink relationships at different spatial scales, from stand to ecosystem levels

Woody biomass production lags stem-girth increase by over one month in coniferous forests

Wood is the main terrestrial biotic reservoir for long-term carbon sequestration1, and its formation in trees consumes around 15% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions each year2. However, the seasonal dynamics of woody biomass production cannot be quantified from eddy covariance or satellite observations. As such, our understanding of this key carbon cycle component, and its sensitivity to climate, remains limited. Here, we present high-resolution cellular based measurements of wood formation dynamics in three coniferous forest sites in northeastern France, performed over a period of 3 years. We show that stem woody biomass production lags behind stem-girth increase by over 1 month. We also analyse more general phenological observations of xylem tissue formation in Northern Hemisphere forests and find similar time lags in boreal, temperate, subalpine and Mediterranean forests. These time lags question the extension of the equivalence between stem size increase and woody biomass production to intra-annual time scales3–6. They also suggest that these two growth processes exhibit differential sensitivities to local environmental conditions. Indeed, in the wellwatered French sites the seasonal dynamics of stem-girth increase matched the photoperiod cycle, whereas those of woody biomass production closely followed the seasonal course of temperature. We suggest that forecasted changes in the annual cycle of climatic factors7 may shift the phase timing of stem size increase and woody biomass production in the future

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech.

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change

No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation.

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability