Comparison of marginal model, and full-shared, partial-shared and partial-equal random effects models, all without or with common intercept and common slope for HIV prevalence and wealth index for the models for <i>π</i>_<i>F</i> and <i>π</i>_<i>M</i>.

<p>The column ‘-2ll’ shows the values of -2×log-likelihood; the column ‘#Par’ shows the number of parameters and the columns ‘Rank’ refers to the ranking of the models according to the AIC and BIC criterion.</p

INSIDA survey: basic description of variables used in the final model.

<p>INSIDA survey: basic description of variables used in the final model.</p

Parameters estimates and standard error estimates for the CE-PE model.

<p>Parameters estimates and standard error estimates for the CE-PE model.</p

Spatial and temporal trend of the BTV-8 outbreak in Belgium for 2006.

<p>Figures are based on the weekly data with (A) giving the spatial trend of the cumulative number of infected farms and (B) giving the temporal trend of the weekly new infections and cumulative number of infected farms. The onset of infection was the date that disease symptoms were first observed, assumed 3 to 4 weeks before confirmation of report.</p

One-week and two-weeks-ahead prediction and the predicted final size of the 2007 BTV-8 outbreak in Belgium based on the model fitted to various time points.

<p>The weekly cumulative number of infected cases in (A) is the prediction at while (B) is the predicted cases at , (C) on the other hand, is the predicted final outbreak size. Predictions are based on the model fitted to the 2006 outbreak data until week t of 2007. It was assumed that at the beginning of the 2007 outbreak, all farms are susceptible again.</p

Final outbreak size as a function of movement restriction radius.

<p>Restriction 1 denotes movement restriction within the zone, while in restriction 2, movement within the zone is allowed. Values were based on 1000 stochastic simulations from the reduced spatio-temporal model. Data until week 6 of the 2006 outbreak was used and the model was allowed to predict the rest of the outbreak period.</p

Parameter Estimates for the reduced spatio-temporal model fitted to the 2006 BTV-8 outbreak data.

<p> Log-ratio transformed Number of cattle and sheep farms per municipality.</p

Spatial structure of the background odds in acquiring BTV.

<p>The map gives the odds of transmission during the start of the outbreak which is computed using .</p

Spatial and temporal trend of the BTV-8 outbreak in Belgium for 2007.

<p>Figures are based on the weekly data with (A) giving the spatial trend of the cumulative number of infected farms and (B) giving the temporal trend of the weekly new infections and cumulative number of infected farms.</p

Comparison of the AIC for different model component choices.

<p>The spatio-temporal model is fitted to the 2006 BTV-8 outbreak data.</p><p> Infection status in neighbourhood and movement components.</p