Dual theory of transmission line outages

A new graph dual formalism is presented for the analysis of line outages in electricity networks. The dual formalism is based on a consideration of the flows around closed cycles in the network. After some exposition of the theory is presented, a new formula for the computation of Line Outage Distribution Factors (LODFs) is derived, which is not only computationally faster than existing methods, but also generalizes easily for multiple line outages and arbitrary changes to line series reactance. In addition, the dual formalism provides new physical insight for how the effects of line outages propagate through the network. For example, in a planar network a single line outage can be shown to induce monotonically decreasing flow changes, which are mathematically equivalent to an electrostatic dipole field.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table; Accepted at IEEE Transactions on Power System

Analisis Postur Kerja di PT. Toba Pulp Lestari Menggunakan Metode Rapid Entire Body Assesment (REBA)

Stasiun kerja yang pekerjaannya dilakukan secara manual perlu memperhatikan postur kerja manusia agar pekerjaan dapat optimal. Gangguan muskuloskeletal merupakan bagian dari postur kerja yang mana posisi kerja yang salah dan monoton dilakukan terus - menerus akan mengakibatkan kesakitan pada sakit bagian punggung, pergelangan tangan dan kaki dikarenakan proses membungkuk, posisi kaki menyerong, gerakan berulang-ulang dan relatif lama. Pekerja di PT. Toba Pulp Lestari, TBK mengalami gejala seperti itu pada stasiun pembibitan sehingga sering mengalami keluhan. Metode REBA adalah solusi mengatasi keluhan dengan menilai postur kerja saat bekerja dengan menghitung skor pada tabel A dan tabel B. Hasil kedua tabel tersebut akan dimasukkan ke dalam tabel C untuk menentukan kategori tindakan. Terdapat 2 pekerja kategori tinggi dan 1 pekerja kategori sedang yang harus diberikan tindakan segera. Mendesain ulang media pembibitan agar sesuai dengan postur tubuh para pekerja pembibitan dan relaksasi dapat membantu tubuh untuk beristirahat

Edukasi Pembuatan Handsanitizer yang Tepat pada Masa Pandemi Covid -19 oleh Mahasiswa KKN UMRI Kelompok 14-A kepada Masyarakat RW 14 Kelurahan Rejosari Kecamatan Tenayan Raya

Pandemi Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) menyerang seluruh dunia dimulai pada Desember 2019 hingga sekarang.Pemerintah telah melakukan berbagai upaya dalam penanggulangan penyebaran Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19).Hand sanitizer adalah  suatu produk sediaan cair yang bisa di bawa kemana-mana, produk ini berguna membunuh kuman dan bakteri yang ada di tangan manusia. Bahan-bahan yang digunakan dalam pembuatan Hand sanitizer tetap merujuk pada anjuran WHO yaitu alkohol 96%, gliserol 98%, hidrogen peroksida 3 % dan aquadest.Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kualitatif, Teknik pengumpulan data utama untuk jurnal ini adalah wawancara, praktek, cacatan dan dokumentasi.Tujuan dilaksanakannya pengabdian masyarakat ini adalah untuk memberikan edukasi atau ilmu kepada masyarakat dalam pembuatan Hand Sanitizer yang baik dan benar sesuai dengan anjuran WHO.Kegiatan ini dilakukan dengan mematuhi protokol kesehatan dan seluruh peserta ikut dalam praktik pembuatan Hand Sanitizer

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : A modelling study

Publisher Copyright: © 2017 Elsevier LtdBackground The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.publishersversionPeer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A brain atlas of axonal and synaptic delays based on modelling of cortico-cortical evoked potentials

International audienceAbstract Epilepsy presurgical investigation may include focal intracortical single-pulse electrical stimulations with depth electrodes, which induce cortico-cortical evoked potentials at distant sites because of white matter connectivity. Cortico-cortical evoked potentials provide a unique window on functional brain networks because they contain sufficient information to infer dynamical properties of large-scale brain connectivity, such as preferred directionality and propagation latencies. Here, we developed a biologically informed modelling approach to estimate the neural physiological parameters of brain functional networks from the cortico-cortical evoked potentials recorded in a large multicentric database. Specifically, we considered each cortico-cortical evoked potential as the output of a transient stimulus entering the stimulated region, which directly propagated to the recording region. Both regions were modelled as coupled neural mass models, the parameters of which were estimated from the first cortico-cortical evoked potential component, occurring before 80 ms, using dynamic causal modelling and Bayesian model inversion. This methodology was applied to the data of 780 patients with epilepsy from the F-TRACT database, providing a total of 34 354 bipolar stimulations and 774 445 cortico-cortical evoked potentials. The cortical mapping of the local excitatory and inhibitory synaptic time constants and of the axonal conduction delays between cortical regions was obtained at the population level using anatomy-based averaging procedures, based on the Lausanne2008 and the HCP-MMP1 parcellation schemes, containing 130 and 360 parcels, respectively. To rule out brain maturation effects, a separate analysis was performed for older (>15 years) and younger patients (<15 years). In the group of older subjects, we found that the cortico-cortical axonal conduction delays between parcels were globally short (median = 10.2 ms) and only 16% were larger than 20 ms. This was associated to a median velocity of 3.9 m/s. Although a general lengthening of these delays with the distance between the stimulating and recording contacts was observed across the cortex, some regions were less affected by this rule, such as the insula for which almost all efferent and afferent connections were faster than 10 ms. Synaptic time constants were found to be shorter in the sensorimotor, medial occipital and latero-temporal regions, than in other cortical areas. Finally, we found that axonal conduction delays were significantly larger in the group of subjects younger than 15 years, which corroborates that brain maturation increases the speed of brain dynamics. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide a local estimation of axonal conduction delays and synaptic time constants across the whole human cortex in vivo, based on intracerebral electrophysiological recordings

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (73.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol