The foreign exchange market: return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and Epps effect

We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all the pairs considered are well described by the nonextensive statistics in terms of q-Gaussians. There exist some small quantitative variations in the nonextensivity q-parameter values for different exchange rates and this can be related to the importance of a given exchange rate in the world's currency trade. Temporal correlations organize the series of returns such that they develop the multifractal characteristics for all the exchange rates with a varying degree of symmetry of the singularity spectrum f(alpha) however. The most symmetric spectrum is identified for the GBP/USD. We also form time series of triangular residual returns and find that the distributions of their fluctuations develop disproportionately heavier tails as compared to small fluctuations which excludes description in terms of q-Gaussians. The multifractal characteristics for these residual returns reveal such anomalous properties like negative singularity exponents and even negative singularity spectra. Such anomalous multifractal measures have so far been considered in the literature in connection with the diffusion limited aggregation and with turbulence. We find that market inefficiency on short time scales leads to the occurrence of the Epps effect on much longer time scales. Although the currency market is much more liquid than the stock markets and it has much larger transaction frequency, the building-up of correlations takes up to several hours - time that does not differ much from what is observed in the stock markets. This may suggest that non-synchronicity of transactions is not the unique source of the observed effect

Complex network analysis of literary and scientific texts

We present results from our quantitative study of statistical and network properties of literary and scientific texts written in two languages: English and Polish. We show that Polish texts are described by the Zipf law with the scaling exponent smaller than the one for the English language. We also show that the scientific texts are typically characterized by the rank-frequency plots with relatively short range of power-law behavior as compared to the literary texts. We then transform the texts into their word-adjacency network representations and find another difference between the languages. For the majority of the literary texts in both languages, the corresponding networks revealed the scale-free structure, while this was not always the case for the scientific texts. However, all the network representations of texts were hierarchical. We do not observe any qualitative and quantitative difference between the languages. However, if we look at other network statistics like the clustering coefficient and the average shortest path length, the English texts occur to possess more clustered structure than do the Polish ones. This result was attributed to differences in grammar of both languages, which was also indicated in the Zipf plots. All the texts, however, show network structure that differs from any of the Watts-Strogatz, the Barabasi-Albert, and the Erdos-Renyi architectures

The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns

We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as an example. The temporal structure and fat-tailed distribution of the returns are considered as possible influence factors. The multifractal spectrum of the original return series is compared with those of four kinds of surrogate data: (1) shuffled data that contain no temporal correlation but have the same distribution, (2) surrogate data in which any nonlinear correlation is removed but the distribution and linear correlation are preserved, (3) surrogate data in which large positive and negative returns are replaced with small values, and (4) surrogate data generated from alternative fat-tailed distributions with the temporal correlation preserved. We find that all these factors have influence on the multifractal spectrum. We also find that the temporal structure (linear or nonlinear) has minor impact on the singularity width $\Delta\alpha$ of the multifractal spectrum while the fat tails have major impact on $\Delta\alpha$, which confirms the earlier results. In addition, the linear correlation is found to have only a horizontal translation effect on the multifractal spectrum in which the distance is approximately equal to the difference between its DFA scaling exponent and 0.5. Our method can also be applied to other financial or physical variables and other multifractal formalisms.Comment: 6 epl page

Quantitative features of multifractal subtleties in time series

Based on the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and on the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) methods we investigate the origin of multifractality in the time series. Series fluctuating according to a qGaussian distribution, both uncorrelated and correlated in time, are used. For the uncorrelated series at the border (q=5/3) between the Gaussian and the Levy basins of attraction asymptotically we find a phase-like transition between monofractal and bifractal characteristics. This indicates that these may solely be the specific nonlinear temporal correlations that organize the series into a genuine multifractal hierarchy. For analyzing various features of multifractality due to such correlations, we use the model series generated from the binomial cascade as well as empirical series. Then, within the temporal ranges of well developed power-law correlations we find a fast convergence in all multifractal measures. Besides of its practical significance this fact may reflect another manifestation of a conjectured q-generalized Central Limit Theorem

Regularity of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by a L{\'e}vy white noise

The paper is concerned with spatial and time regularity of solutions to linear stochastic evolution equation perturbed by L\'evy white noise "obtained by subordination of a Gaussian white noise". Sufficient conditions for spatial continuity are derived. It is also shown that solutions do not have in general \cadlag modifications. General results are applied to equations with fractional Laplacian. Applications to Burgers stochastic equations are considered as well.Comment: This is an updated version of the same paper. In fact, it has already been publishe

A Multifractal Analysis of Asian Foreign Exchange Markets

We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we also estimate the multifractal spectra of limited series before and after the crisis. We find that the Korean and Thai foreign exchange markets experienced a significant increase in multifractality compared to Hong-Kong and Japan. We also show that the multifractality is stronge related to the presence of high values of returns in the series

The rate of convergence of estimate for Hurst index of fractional Brownian motion involved into stochastic differential equation

We consider stochastic differential equation involving pathwise integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion. The estimates for the Hurst parameter are constructed according to first- and second-order quadratic variations of observed values of the solution. The rate of convergence of these estimates to the true value of a parameter is established.Comment: 20 page

The ℓs\ell^s-boundedness of a family of integral operators on UMD Banach function spaces

We prove the $\ell^s$-boundedness of a family of integral operators with an operator-valued kernel on UMD Banach function spaces. This generalizes and simplifies earlier work by Gallarati, Veraar and the author, where the $\ell^s$-boundedness of this family of integral operators was shown on Lebesgue spaces. The proof is based on a characterization of $\ell^s$-boundedness as weighted boundedness by Rubio de Francia.Comment: 13 pages. Generalization of arXiv:1410.665

Quantum Iterated Function Systems

Iterated functions system (IFS) is defined by specifying a set of functions in a classical phase space, which act randomly on an initial point. In an analogous way, we define a quantum iterated functions system (QIFS), where functions act randomly with prescribed probabilities in the Hilbert space. In a more general setting a QIFS consists of completely positive maps acting in the space of density operators. We present exemplary classical IFSs, the invariant measure of which exhibits fractal structure, and study properties of the corresponding QIFSs and their invariant states.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure include

Integrable structure of Ginibre's ensemble of real random matrices and a Pfaffian integration theorem

In the recent publication [E. Kanzieper and G. Akemann, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 230201 (2005)], an exact solution was reported for the probability p_{n,k} to find exactly k real eigenvalues in the spectrum of an nxn real asymmetric matrix drawn at random from Ginibre's Orthogonal Ensemble (GinOE). In the present paper, we offer a detailed derivation of the above result by concentrating on the proof of the Pfaffian integration theorem, the key ingredient of our analysis of the statistics of real eigenvalues in the GinOE. We also initiate a study of the correlations of complex eigenvalues and derive a formula for the joint probability density function of all complex eigenvalues of a GinOE matrix restricted to have exactly k real eigenvalues. In the particular case of k=0, all correlation functions of complex eigenvalues are determined