National Climate Assessment Indicators: Background, Development, and Examples

This paper establishes a rationale for developing a system of indicators for an ongoing national climate assessment process. It lays out a framework for a set of climate-related indicators that have an end-to-end character, e.g. they will provide information on greenhouse gases, variability and change in the climate system, status and trends of important sectors that are known to be sensitive to climate variability, and response strategies. Examples of potential indicators are shown in each category. These are by no means a final set of indicators, because an overall process for selection with participation from important stakeholders has not yet been undertaken. But even this initial set of possibilities reveals both where there is a substantial amount of well-documented information, and where there are important gaps that must be filled by subsequent research

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

Land-Use Change and Earth System Dynamics: Advancing the Science

Quantifying the effects of land-use changes on Earth system dynamics requires adequate information on both past and future land-use activities in a format appropriate for models capable of tracking relevant impacts. This presentation will review past approaches to understanding the role of land-use change on the Earth system dynamics, and summarize new work involving ‘land-use harmonization’ (Hurtt et al. 2009) to advance the understanding for IPCC-AR5 and beyond. Emphasis will be placed on the importance and accuracy of historical maps, uncertainties in future projections, and key challenges for the future

Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment

This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and presents a long-term research program research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional intercomparisons. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate

Human Visual Search Does Not Maximize the Post-Saccadic Probability of Identifying Targets

Researchers have conjectured that eye movements during visual search are selected to minimize the number of saccades. The optimal Bayesian eye movement strategy minimizing saccades does not simply direct the eye to whichever location is judged most likely to contain the target but makes use of the entire retina as an information gathering device during each fixation. Here we show that human observers do not minimize the expected number of saccades in planning saccades in a simple visual search task composed of three tokens. In this task, the optimal eye movement strategy varied, depending on the spacing between tokens (in the first experiment) or the size of tokens (in the second experiment), and changed abruptly once the separation or size surpassed a critical value. None of our observers changed strategy as a function of separation or size. Human performance fell far short of ideal, both qualitatively and quantitatively

Grand Challenges for Biological and Environmental Research: A Long-Term Vision

The interactions and feedbacks among plants, animals, microbes, humans, and the environment ultimately form the world in which we live. This world is now facing challenges from a growing and increasingly affluent human population whose numbers and lifestyles are driving ever greater energy demand and impacting climate. These and other contributing factors will make energy and climate sustainability extremely difficult to achieve over the 20-year time horizon that is the focus of this report. Despite these severe challenges, there is optimism that deeper understanding of our environment will enable us to mitigate detrimental effects, while also harnessing biological and climate systems to ensure a sustainable energy future. This effort is advanced by scientific inquiries in the fields of atmospheric chemistry and physics, biology, ecology, and subsurface science - all made possible by computing. The Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) within the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Science has a long history of bringing together researchers from different disciplines to address critical national needs in determining the biological and environmental impacts of energy production and use, characterizing the interplay of climate and energy, and collaborating with other agencies and DOE programs to improve the world's most powerful climate models. BER science focuses on three distinct areas: (1) What are the roles of Earth system components (atmosphere, land, oceans, sea ice, and the biosphere) in determining climate? (2) How is the information stored in a genome translated into microbial, plant, and ecosystem processes that influence biofuel production, climate feedbacks, and the natural cycling of carbon? (3) What are the biological, geochemical, and physical forces that govern the behavior of Earth's subsurface environment? Ultimately, the goal of BER science is to support experimentation and modeling that can reliably predict the outcomes and behaviors of complex biological and environmental systems, leading to robust solutions for DOE missions and strategic goals. In March 2010, the Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee held the Grand Challenges for Biological and Environmental Research: A Long-Term Vision workshop to identify scientific opportunities and grand challenges for BER science in the coming decades and to develop an overall strategy for drafting a long-term vision for BER. Key workshop goals included: (1) Identifying the greatest scientific challenges in biology, climate, and the environment that DOE will face over a 20-year time horizon. (2) Describing how BER should be positioned to address those challenges. (3) Determining the new and innovative tools needed to advance BER science. (4) Suggesting how the workforce of the future should be trained in integrative system science. This report lays out grand research challenges for BER - in biological systems, climate, energy sustainability, computing, and education and workforce training - that can put society on a path to achieve the scientific evidence and predictive understanding needed to inform decision making and planning to address future energy needs, climate change, water availability, and land use