Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Global Assemblages, Resilience, and Earth Stewardship in the Anthropocene

In this paper, we argue that the Anthropocene is an epoch characterized not only by the anthropogenic dominance of the Earth\u27s ecosystems but also by new forms of environmental governance and institutions. Echoing the literature in political ecology, we call these new forms of environmental governance “global assemblages”. Socioecological changes associated with global assemblages disproportionately impact poorer nations and communities along the development continuum, or the “Global South”, and others who depend on natural resources for subsistence. Although global assemblages are powerful mechanisms of socioecological change, we show how transnational networks of grassroots organizations are able to resist their negative social and environmental impacts, and thus foster socioecological resilience

The Main Belt Comets and ice in the Solar System

We review the evidence for buried ice in the asteroid belt; specifically the questions around the so-called Main Belt Comets (MBCs). We summarise the evidence for water throughout the Solar System, and describe the various methods for detecting it, including remote sensing from ultraviolet to radio wavelengths. We review progress in the first decade of study of MBCs, including observations, modelling of ice survival, and discussion on their origins. We then look at which methods will likely be most effective for further progress, including the key challenge of direct detection of (escaping) water in these bodies

Rac1 and Rac3 isoform activation is involved in the invasive and metastatic phenotype of human breast cancer cells

INTRODUCTION: The metastatic progression of cancer is a direct result of the disregulation of numerous cellular signaling pathways, including those associated with adhesion, migration, and invasion. Members of the Rac family of small GTPases are known to act as regulators of actin cytoskeletal structures and strongly influence the cellular processes of integrin-mediated adhesion and migration. Even though hyperactivated Rac proteins have been shown to influence metastatic processes, these proteins have never been directly linked to metastatic progression. METHODS: To investigate a role for Rac and Cdc42 in metastatic breast cancer cell invasion and migration, relative endogenous Rac or Cdc42 activity was determined in a panel of metastatic variants of the MDA-MB-435 metastatic human breast cancer cell line using a p21-binding domain-PAK pull down assay. To investigate the migratory and invasive potential of the Rac isoforms in human breast cancer, namely Rac1 and the subsequently cloned Rac3, we stably expressed either dominant active Rac1 or dominant active Rac3 into the least metastatic cell variant. Dominant negative Rac1 or dominant negative Rac3 were stably expressed in the most metastatic cell variant. Cell lines expressing mutant Rac1 or Rac3 were analyzed using in vitro adhesion, migration and invasion assays. RESULTS: We show that increased activation of Rac proteins directly correlates with increasing metastatic potential in a panel of cell variants derived from a single metastatic breast cancer cell line (MDA-MB-435). The same correlation could not be found with activated Cdc42. Expression of a dominant active Rac1 or a dominant active Rac3 resulted in a more invasive and motile phenotype. Moreover, expression of either dominant negative Rac1 or dominant negative Rac3 into the most metastatic cell variant resulted in decreased invasive and motile properties. CONCLUSION: This study correlates endogenous Rac activity with high metastatic potential and implicates Rac in the regulation of cell migration and invasion in metastatic breast cancer cells. Taken together, these results suggest a role for both the Rac1 and Rac3 GTPases in human breast cancer progression

Temporal trends in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dioxins, furans, and PCBs among adult women living in Chapaevsk, Russia: a longitudinal study from 2000 to 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The present study assessed the temporal trend in serum concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-<it>p</it>-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls (PCBs) among residents of a Russian town where levels of these chemicals are elevated due to prior industrial activity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two serum samples were collected from eight adult women (in 2000 and 2009), and analyzed with gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average total toxic equivalency (TEQ) decreased by 30% (from 36 to 25 pg/g lipid), and the average sum of PCB congeners decreased by 19% (from 291 to 211 ng/g lipid). Total TEQs decreased for seven of the eight women, and the sum of PCBs decreased for six of eight women. During this nine year period, larger decreases in serum TEQs and PCBs were found in women with greater increases in body mass index.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides suggestive evidence that average serum concentrations of dioxins, furans, and PCBs are decreasing over time among residents of this town.</p

Natural Variation in Decision-Making Behavior in Drosophila melanogaster

There has been considerable recent interest in using Drosophila melanogaster to investigate the molecular basis of decision-making behavior. Deciding where to place eggs is likely one of the most important decisions for a female fly, as eggs are vulnerable and larvae have limited motility. Here, we show that many natural genotypes of D. melanogaster prefer to lay eggs near nutritious substrate, rather than in nutritious substrate. These preferences are highly polymorphic in both degree and direction, with considerable heritability (0.488) and evolvability

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Search for the neutral Higgs bosons of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for neutral Higgs bosons of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is reported. The analysis is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data were recorded in 2011 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb-1 to 4.8 fb-1. Higgs boson decays into oppositely-charged muon or τ lepton pairs are considered for final states requiring either the presence or absence of b-jets. No statistically significant excess over the expected background is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived. The exclusion limits are for the production cross-section of a generic neutral Higgs boson, φ, as a function of the Higgs boson mass and for h/A/H production in the MSSM as a function of the parameters mA and tan β in the mhmax scenario for mA in the range of 90GeV to 500 GeV. Copyright CERN