The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel

In this paper we analyze the information content of data on inflationary expectations derived from the Israeli bond market. The results indicate that these expectations are unbiased and efficient with respect to the variables considered. In other words, we cannot reject the hypothesis that these expectations are rational. The existence of continuous data of this type, which is unique to the Israeli economy, enables us to test a number of hypotheses concerning the nature of price adjustment. The study found that expected inflation is a primary factor in the explanation of current inflation. This result is in agreement with the neo-Keynesian approach according to which the adjustment of prices is costly and as a result price increases in the present are determined primarily by expectations of future price increases. It was also found that inflation in Israel is better explained by the neo-Keynesian approach than by the Classical approach or the 'lack of information' approach according to which current inflation is determined by past, rather than current, inflationary expectations. Another issue examined in this study is whether inflationary inertia existed in Israel during the 1990s. From conventional estimation of an inflation equation (i.e. using future inflation as proxy for expectations) one can get the impression that there was strong inflationary inertia during this period. However, when data on inflationary expectations from the bond market were used in the estimation, this inertia (i.e. lagged inflation) became negative (and insignificant). This finding raise the possibility that inflationary inertia that is found elsewhere is not a structural phenomenon but an outcome of lack of reliable data on inflationary expectations.Inflation; Rational Expectations;

The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel

In this paper we analyze the information content of data on inflationary expectations derived from the Israeli bond market. The results indicate that these expectations are unbiased and efficient with respect to the variables considered. In other words, we cannot reject the hypothesis that these expectations are rational. The existence of continuous data of this type, which is unique to the Israeli economy, enables us to test a number of hypotheses concerning the nature of price adjustment. The study found that expected inflation is a primary factor in the explanation of current inflation. This result is in agreement with the neo-Keynesian approach according to which the adjustment of prices is costly and as a result price increases in the present are determined primarily by expectations of future price increases. It was also found that inflation in Israel is better explained by the neo-Keynesian approach than by the Classical approach or the 'lack of information' approach according to which current inflation is determined by past, rather than current, inflationary expectations. Another issue examined in this study is whether inflationary inertia existed in Israel during the 1990s. From conventional estimation of an inflation equation (i.e. using future inflation as proxy for expectations) one can get the impression that there was strong inflationary inertia during this period. However, when data on inflationary expectations from the bond market were used in the estimation, this inertia (i.e. lagged inflation) became negative (and insignificant). This finding raise the possibility that inflationary inertia that is found elsewhere is not a structural phenomenon but an outcome of lack of reliable data on inflationary expectations

The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel

In this paper we analyze the information content of data on inflationary expectations derived from the Israeli bond market. The results indicate that these expectations are unbiased and efficient with respect to the variables considered. In other words, we cannot reject the hypothesis that these expectations are rational. The existence of continuous data of this type, which is unique to the Israeli economy, enables us to test a number of hypotheses concerning the nature of price adjustment. The study found that expected inflation is a primary factor in the explanation of current inflation. This result is in agreement with the neo-Keynesian approach according to which the adjustment of prices is costly and as a result price increases in the present are determined primarily by expectations of future price increases. It was also found that inflation in Israel is better explained by the neo-Keynesian approach than by the Classical approach or the 'lack of information' approach according to which current inflation is determined by past, rather than current, inflationary expectations. Another issue examined in this study is whether inflationary inertia existed in Israel during the 1990s. From conventional estimation of an inflation equation (i.e. using future inflation as proxy for expectations) one can get the impression that there was strong inflationary inertia during this period. However, when data on inflationary expectations from the bond market were used in the estimation, this inertia (i.e. lagged inflation) became negative (and insignificant). This finding raise the possibility that inflationary inertia that is found elsewhere is not a structural phenomenon but an outcome of lack of reliable data on inflationary expectations

Wicksell's Classical Dichotomy: Is the natural rate of interest independent of the money rate of interest?

According to Wicksell's Classical Dichotomy the money rate of interest depends on the natural rate of interest, but the latter does not depend on the former. If this Classical Dichotomy is false monetary policy may induce hysteresis because the natural rate of interest would depend upon the money rate of interest. We use data for Israel to test Wicksell's Classical Dichotomy. We proxy the natural rate of interest by the forward yield to maturity on indexed-linked treasury bonds. If the null hypothesis is false it is difficult to suggest persuasive instruments that would identify the causal effect of the money rate on the natural rate of interest. Our identification strategy is therefore built around quasi-experimentation and event analysis. Large and seemingly orthogonal shocks to the natural rate of interest have no measurable effect on the natural rate of interest according to non-parametric and parametric tests. Therefore, Wicksell's Classical Dichotomy is empirically valid.Natural rate of interest Monetary policy Event analysis Indexed bonds Neutrality of monetary policy Identification