A Markov state modelling approach to characterizing the punctuated equilibrium dynamics of stochastic evolutionary games

Stochastic evolutionary games often share a dynamic property called punctuated equilibrium; this means that their sample paths exhibit long periods of stasis near one population state which are infrequently interrupted by switching events after which the sample paths stay close to a different population state, again for a long period of time. This has been described in the literature as a favorable property of stochastic evolutionary games. The methods used so far in stochastic evolutionary game theory, however, do not fully characterize these dynamics. We present an approach that aims at exposing the punctuated equilibrium dynamics by constructing Markov models on a reduced state space which approximate well this dynamic behavior. Besides having good approximation properties, the approach allows a simulation-based algorithm, which is appealing in the case of complex games

Constructing Markov State Models of Reduced Complexity from Agent-Based Simulation Data

Agent-based models usually are very complex so that models of re- duced complexity are needed, not only to see the wood for the trees but also to allow the application of advanced analytic methods. We show how to construct so-called Markov state models that approximate the origi- nal Markov process by a Markov chain on a small finite state space and represent well the longest time scales of the original model. More specif- ically, a Markov state model is defined as a Markov chain whose state space consists of sets of population states near which the sample paths of the original Markov process reside for a long time and whose transition rates between these macrostates are given by the aggregate statistics of jumps between those sets of population states. An advantage of this ap- proach in the context of complex models with large state spaces is that the macrostates as well as transition probabilities can be estimated on the basis of simulated short-term trajectory data

Investigation of the association of Apgar score with maternal socio-economic and biological factors: an analysis of German perinatal statistics

PURPOSE: To examine the relationship of 5-min Apgar score with maternal socio-economic and biological factors. METHODS: We analyzed data from 465,964 singleton pregnancies (37–41 weeks’ gestation) from the German perinatal statistics of 1998–2000. Using a logistic regression model we analyzed the incidence of low (0–6) 5-min Apgar scores in relation to these maternal factors: body mass index (BMI), age, previous live births, country of origin, occupation, single mother status, working during pregnancy, and smoking. RESULTS: A low Apgar score was more common in overweight [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.40; P < 0.001] and obese [OR 1.92 (95% CI 1.67–2.20); P < 0.001] compared to normal weight women. A low Apgar score was also more common for women aged >35 years compared to those aged 20–35 years [OR 1.35 (95% CI 1.16–1.58); P < 0.001]. Furthermore, odds of a low Apgar score were higher for women with no previous live births compared to those with one or more previous live births [OR 1.52 (95% CI 1.37–1.70); P < 0.001]. Socio-economic factors did not convincingly influence Apgar scores. CONCLUSIONS: There was an influence of the biological maternal factors age, BMI, and parity on the 5-min Apgar score. There was no convincing effect of socio-economic factors on Apgar score in our study population. Possible reasons for this are discussed

A systematic review of contamination (aerosol, splatter and droplet generation) associated with oral surgery and its relevance to COVID-19

IntroductionThe current COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has impacted the delivery of dental care globally and has led to re-evaluation of infection control standards. However, lack of clarity around what is known and unknown regarding droplet and aerosol generation in dentistry (including oral surgery and extractions), and their relative risk to patients and the dental team, necessitates a review of evidence relating to specific dental procedures. This review is part of a wider body of research exploring the evidence on bioaerosols in dentistry and involves detailed consideration of the risk of contamination in relation to oral surgery.MethodsA comprehensive search of Medline (OVID), Embase (OVID), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Scopus, Web of Science, LILACS and ClinicalTrials.Gov was conducted using key terms and MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) words relating to the review questions. Methodological quality including sensitivity was assessed using a schema developed to measure quality aspects of studies using a traffic light system to allow inter- and intra-study overview and comparison. A narrative synthesis was conducted for assessment of the included studies and for the synthesis of results.ResultsEleven studies on oral surgery (including extractions) were included in the review. They explored microbiological (bacterial and fungal) and blood (visible and/or imperceptible) contamination at the person level (patients, operators and assistants) and/or at a wider environmental level, using settle plates, chemiluminescence reagents or air samplers; all within 1 m of the surgical site. Studies were of generally low to medium quality and highlighted an overall risk of contaminated aerosol, droplet and splatter generation during oral surgery procedures, most notably during removal of impacted teeth using rotatory handpieces. Risk of contamination and spread was increased by factors, including proximity to the operatory site, longer duration of treatment, higher procedural complexity, non-use of an extraoral evacuator and areas involving more frequent contact during treatment.ConclusionA risk of contamination (microbiological, visible and imperceptible blood) to patients, dental team members and the clinical environment is present during oral surgery procedures, including routine extractions. However, the extent of contamination has not been explored fully in relation to time and distance. Variability across studies with regards to the analysis methods used and outcome measures makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions. Further studies with improved methodologies, including higher test sensitivity and consideration of viruses, are required to validate these findings

The Effect That Project Management Certification Has on Employability: Agent's Perceptions from Spain

This study analyses the effects that the project management certification has on employability. This analysis started with a participative process in which various groups of experts who are involved in the certification of people were consulted. A personal interview was carried out amongst 106 professionals —certifying bodies, training institutions, the civil service, and international organisations— and amongst professional who are certified in project management by the International Project Management Association in Spain. The results show that the certification emerges as a powerful tool for improving employability. The effects are demonstrated across two complementary aspects: internal company aspects and external aspects relating to the labour market. Finally, by compiling the different agents’ opinions, a series of measures emerge for improving the accreditation processes as an employability tool and increasing the mutual learning between public and private actors

Inventory of long and short term future needs of food chain users for future functions of internet

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Trends in Occupational Exposure to Styrene in the European Glass Fibre-Reinforced Plastics Industry

Aim: This study presents temporal trends of styrene exposure for workers in the European glass fibre-reinforced plastics (GRP) industry during the period 1966–2002