Determinants of household choice of breakfast cereals: healthy or unhealthy?

We studied consumer demand for more and less healthy breakfast cereals. Using ACNielsen Homescan database and USDA food nutrition data, we developed three cereal nutrition indexes for each household in the data. In addition to the standard demographic characteristics of households and prices, we included variables representing differences between private labels and national brands. We found that the structure of the industry, through its effect on the product mix produced, affects consumer choice of nutritious foods. Some households buy fewer healthy cereals simply through reluctance to trust private labels. Among all factors expected to influence consumer purchases, the prices appear to have the strongest effect on the healthiness of the choice of breakfast cereals, which is a relatively inexpensive product. Households with children and teens buy less healthy cereals, while older and more educated households make healthier choices.consumer demand, healthy and unhealthy food, breakfast cereals, Consumer/Household Economics,

Projecting Supply and Demand for Land in the Long Run

The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG emissions. For this purpose, we identify the most important drivers of supply and demand for land. On the demand side, we begin with a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model that predicts economic growth in each region of the world, based on exogenous projections of population, skilled and unskilled labor and technical change. Economy-wide growth is, in turn, translated into consumer demand for specific products using an econometrically estimated, international cross-section, demand system that permits us to predict the pattern of future consumer demands across the development spectrum. This is particularly important in the fast-growing, developing countries, where the composition of consumer demand is changing rapidly. These countries also account for an increasing share of global economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Consumer demand is translated into derived demands for land through a set of sectoral production functions that differentiate the demand for land by Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ). The paper devotes considerable attention to modeling the supply of land to different land-using activities in the economy. In order to represent the competition for land among different sectors in the model, we disaggregated the land endowment in each region into Agro-Ecological Zones, drawing on the data base of Lee et al. (2005), to reflect the fact that land is heterogeneous endowment. To further restrict land mobility across uses, land supply within an AEZ is constrained via a nested Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) frontier. In the nested structure, land owner of particular type of land (AEZ) first decides on the allocation of land between agriculture and forestry to maximize the total returns from land. Then, based on the relative returns to land in crop and livestock production, the land owner decides on the allocation of land between these two broad types of agricultural activities. A soft link between our GE model and an intertemporal forestry model is included for better representation of forestry sector in GE model. To reflect the real world fact that deforestation represents an important source of land supply in the face of high demand, we also introduce the possibility of conversion of unmanaged forest land to land used in production. This is treated as an investment decision whereby new land is accessed only when present value of returns on land in a given region is high enough to cover the costs of accessing the new land. In equilibrium, the supply of land to each land-using activity adjusts to meet the derived demand for land. A set of projections for the long run supply and demand for land obtained with this model is a useful input to improving our understanding of land-related GHG emissions in the future.land use, climate change policy, baseline, general equilibrium, agro-ecological zones, C68, R14, Q24, Land Economics/Use,

DOES RURAL JOB GROWTH LEAD THE ECONOMY OUT OF RECESSION?

This paper explores the dynamics of rural and non-rural job growth to investigate if job growth starts in rural places, making it one of the leading indicators of economic growth. Empirical results provide mixed evidence. The mixed results of the Granger non-causality tests could be sensitive to the non-rural area definition. The relationship between rural job growth and non-rural job growth is not restricted to post-recession periods. Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggests the spillover effects of non-rural growth are larger than the spillover effect of rural growth on non-rural areas. But this positive response of rural growth disappears over time and turns sharply negative. In the long run, "backwash" effects outweigh "spread" effects.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The Effect of Carbon Payments on Deforestation Rates and Carbon Sequestration: Estimates from a Global Forestry and Agricultural Model.

Environmental Economics and Policy,

Biofuel Growth: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts from Changes in Forest Carbon Stocks

There is significant policy interest in liquid biofuels with appealing prospects for energy security, farm security, poverty alleviation, and climate change. Large-scale commercial biofuel production could have far reaching implications for regional and global markets – particularly those related to energy and land use. As such, large-scale biofuels growth is likely to have significant impacts on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper utilizes a CGE model with explicit biofuel, land, and energy markets. The model is able to estimate the effects on the broad range of input and output markets potentially affected globally by biofuels policies. One of the most controversial issues within the biofuels debate is potential indirect changes in land use and, in particular, the resulting changes in forest carbon stocks. To uncover consequences of biofuel policies for forest carbon, we link our CGE model with a dynamic forward looking model of the forest sector. Within this framework, we evaluate the potential effects of US and multinational biofuels growth on changes in land use and emissions from changes in forest carbon stocks.land use change, biofuels, CGE model, forest carbon stocks, GHG emissions, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS FOR INVESTMENT IN ORGANIC WHEAT AND BARLEY PRODUCTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA USING PRECISION AGRICULTURE TECHNOLOGY

Real options theory is employed to measure the value of investing in organic wheat production using precision agriculture technology. Results reveal that an option to wait until market uncertainty is resolved is valuable. Information obtained via precision agriculture technology is also valuable to producers seeking organic certification.organic wheat production, real options theory, precision agriculture technology, Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

The Relative Role of Land in Climate Policy

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/26/09.Climate policy, land use related emissions, carbon forest sequestration, CGE, Environmental Economics and Policy,

IMPACT OF US AND EUROPEAN BIOFUEL POLICIES ON FOREST CARBON

This paper develops a dynamic, regional analysis of the effects of US and European biofuel mandates on land use, forestry stocks, and carbon emissions. The results suggest that these mandates may cause an additional 23-26 million hectares of forestland losses globally, but additional carbon emissions of 1.2 – 1.6 billion t CO2. The estimates are found to be sensitive to the elasticity parameter on the land supply function in the model, with the higher elasticity estimates associated with larger carbon losses. The regional analysis turns out to be quite important, because some regions end up gaining forestland and increasing carbon stocks. The regional and dynamic effects have been missed by most other noteworthy analyses of the induced land use effects of biofuel policies, potentially leading the authors to overstate the impacts by 3-6 times.Biofuel policy, Indirect land use effects, Forest carbon sequestration, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Manganese(II) Complexes with Schiff Bases Immobilized on Nanosilica as Catalysts of the Reaction of Ozone Decomposition

In this article, we submit the description of synthesis and identification of manganese(II) complexes with pyrogenic nanosilica-immobilized (d av = 10 nm; S sp = 290 m2/g) hydroxyaldimine ligands (Mn(L)2/Si): salicilaldiminopropyl (L1); 5-bromosalicilaldiminopropyl (L2); 2-hydroxynaphtaldiminopropyl (L3); 2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzaldiminopropyl (L4); 2-hydroxy-3,5-dichloroacetophenoniminopropyl (L5); and 4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzaldiminopropyl (L6). The ligands and complexes were characterized by UV-VIS and IR spectrometry. Nanocomposites consisting of complexes Mn(L)2/Si showed a high catalytic activity in low-temperature ozone decomposition in the range of concentrations between 2.1 × 10−6 and 8.4 × 10−6 mol/l. The number of catalytic cycles increased for isostructural pseudotetrahedral complexes Mn(L)2/Si (L1–L5) in the following order: Mn(L3)2 >> Mn(L4)2 > Mn(L1)2 > Mn(L2)2 > Mn(L5)2. In the case of pseudooctahedral complexes with L6, the change of coordination polyhedral does not influence the kinetics and stoichiometric parameters of the reaction