Distribution of establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI) and activity index (AI) of <i>A</i>. <i>thunbergii</i> on Kilimanjaro elevation transect calculated from the temperature dependent-development models under current (2013) and future (2055) temperature conditions.

<p>(A) ERI, (B) GI and (C) AI under current temperature; (D) ERI, (E) GI and (F) AI under future temperature projections; (G) ERI, (H) GI and (I) AI absolute difference between future and current temperature conditions.</p

Location of the study transect over an elevation gradient on the south-eastern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro, in Moshi district, Tanzania.

<p>The transect delimited in pink is approximately 11 km-long and 2 km-wide with a total surface area of around 22.2 km².</p

Effect of different constant temperature on the pre-oviposition, oviposition, post-oviposition periods (days), fecundity and longevity of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.

<p>Effect of different constant temperature on the pre-oviposition, oviposition, post-oviposition periods (days), fecundity and longevity of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.</p

Validation of the developed phenology model through comparison of observed and simulated developmental and mortality rates of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i> life stages.

<p>Validation of the developed phenology model through comparison of observed and simulated developmental and mortality rates of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i> life stages.</p

Change in risk indices for <i>A</i>. <i>thunbergii</i> populations of Kilimanjaro transect between current (2013) and future (2055) temperature conditions, plotted against elevations.

<p>(A) Establishment risk index (ERI), (B) generation index (GI), (C) activity index (AI). * = <i>P</i> < 0.05, ** = <i>P</i> < 0.001, *** = <i>P</i> < 0.0001.</p

Validation of the developed phenology model through comparison of observed and simulated population growth parameters of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.

<p>Validation of the developed phenology model through comparison of observed and simulated population growth parameters of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.</p

Change in minimum and maximum temperatures (mean ± SD) between current (2013) and future (2055) climatic conditions on selected locations along the Kilimanjaro transect.

<p>The current temperatures were recorded using iButtons Hygrochron data loggers in the selected locations and future temperatures obtained from AFRICLIM 3.0 climatic projections of RCP 4.5 scenario.</p

Distribution of <i>Antestiopsis thunbergii</i> populations (mean density per tree) over the elevation transect on Kilimanjaro, for the different evaluation periods.

<p>(A) June 2014, cool dry season, (B) October 2014, short rainy season, (C) January 2015, warm dry season, (D) June 2015, cool dry season.</p

Life table parameters of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i> estimated at different constant temperature regimes.

<p>Life table parameters of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i> estimated at different constant temperature regimes.</p

Estimated parameters (mean ± SE) of the exponential function: <i>r</i>(<i>T</i>) = <i>b</i>1.<i>exp</i>(<i>b</i>2.<i>T</i>); fitted to the mean senescence rates for adult life stages of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.

<p>Estimated parameters (mean ± SE) of the exponential function: <i>r</i>(<i>T</i>) = <i>b</i>1.<i>exp</i>(<i>b</i>2.<i>T</i>); fitted to the mean senescence rates for adult life stages of <i>Ceratitis rosa</i> and <i>Ceratitis quilicii</i>.</p