Renminbi Internationalisation: Precedents and Implications

While it is commonly assumed that there are no known precedents against which to benchmark the internationalisation of the Renminbi (RMB), this paper argues that the PRCs own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. In particular it indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s developed financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise receipts from foreign trade as well as minimise the risks of undue swings in capital flows. The paper shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions and as such Hong Kong’s role in mitigating the risk of undue capital swings remains

Soviet industrial production, 1928 to 1955 : real growth and hidden inflation

The mechanism of hidden inflation in Soviet industrial growth statistics between 1928 and 1950 is described. Hidden inflation arose when new products were substituted for old ones. Substitution biases in Soviet and Western growth estimates are compared; the extent of hidden inflation in the Soviet figures is estimated. The view that all Soviet growth series were exaggerated is qualified; the presumption that the lower a figure, the more reliable it must be, is overturned. The Moorsteen paradox, hidden inflation in industry as a whole, but none in machinebuilding where product innovation was most rapid, is explained

Bank Financing for SMEs – Lessons from the Literature

This paper surveys the recent literature on the relationship between SMEs, financial deepening and economic development. While a large SME sector is not associated with faster economic growth or poverty alleviation, financial deepening can have a pro-growth and pro-poor impact by alleviating SMEs’ financing constraints, enabling firm entry and entrepreneurship, and better resource allocation. It is important to differentiate between different segments of the SME population, most critically between subsistence micro entrepreneurs and transformational entrepreneurs. This paper also discusses the importance of market structure, competition and regulations for SMEs and their access to finance over the business cycle and during crises

Vaccine innovation, translational research and the management of knowledge accumulation

What does it take to translate research into socially beneficial technologies like vaccines? Current policy that focuses on expanding research or strengthening incentives overlooks how the supply and demand of innovation is mediated by problem-solving processes that generate knowledge which is often fragmented and only locally valid. This paper details some of the conditions that allow fragmented, local knowledge to accumulate through a series of structured steps from the artificial simplicity of the laboratory to the complexity of real world application. Poliomyelitis is used as an illustrative case to highlight the importance of experimental animal models and the extent of co-ordination that can be required if they are missing. Implications for the governance and management of current attempts to produce vaccines for HIV, TB and Malaria are discussed. Article Outlin

Economic Backwardness and Social Tension

We propose that relative economic backwardness contributes to the build-up of social tension and non-violent and violent conflict. We test our hypothesis using data on organized mass movements and armed civil conflict. The findings show that greater economic backwardness is consistently linked to a higher probability of onset of violent and especially non-violent forms of civil unrest. We provide evidence that the relationship is causal in instrumental variables estimations using new instruments, including mailing speeds and telegram charges around 1900. The magnitude of the effect of backwardness on social tension increases in the two-stage least-squares estimations

Industrial Structure and Political Outcomes: The Case of the 2016 US Presidential Election

This paper analyzes the US presidential election of 2016, examining the patterns of industrial structure and party competition in both the major party primaries and the general election. It attempts to identify the new, historically specific factors that led to the upheavals, especially the steady growth of a “dual economy” that locks more and more Americans out of the middle class. It draws extensively on a newly assembled, more comprehensive database to identify the specific political forces that coalesced around each candidate, including the various stages of the Trump campaign

Managing financial constraints: Undercapitalization and underwriting capacity in spanish fire insurance

Reinsurance is a vital financial device for enhancing underwriting capacity, ceding risks and mitigating financial distress. By supplying financial resources and services, reinsurance can facilitate growth and expansion in the insurance business. Focusing on the insurance sector in the emerging Spanish economy and using a novel dataset on fire insurance companies, this paper examines the role of fire insurance in the capital formation, the importance of reinsurance as a vehicle for expanding the country’s domestic underwriting capacity, and how the capital import impacted on the balance of payment, from the introduction of the first comprehensive legislation regarding insurance in 1908 to the outbreak of the Civil War in 1936. Considering the situation of undercapitalization, the singularities of the insurance market, and the changes in regulatory schemes, we find that foreign reinsurance became a key financial vehicle for increasing the underwriting capacity in Spain. We also show the struggle for an emerging market to find ways to keep balance of current accounts and raise capital when the financial infrastructure is underdeveloped. The diffusion of reinsurance networks from the core of industrial Western countries towards emerging economies was one of the mechanisms for financial modernization on a global scale

Use of prediction methods for patent and trademark applications in Spain

Patent and trademark offices which run according to principles of new management have an inherent need for dependable forecasting data in planning capacity and service levels. The ability of the Spanish Office of Patents and Trademarks to carry out efficient planning of its resource needs requires the use of methods which allow it to predict the changes in the number of patent and trademark applications at different time horizons. The approach for the prediction of time series of Spanish patents and trademarks applications (1979e2009) was based on the use of different techniques of time series prediction in a short-term horizon. The methods used can be grouped into two specifics areas: regression models of trends and time series models. The results of this study show that it is possible to model the series of patents and trademarks applications with different models, especially ARIMA, with satisfactory model adjustment and relatively low error