Predicting the effects of climate change on future freshwater fish diversity at global scale

The aim of the present study was to predict future changes in biodiversity attributes (richness, rarity, heterogeneity, evenness, functional diversity and taxonomic diversity) of freshwater fish species in river basins around the world, under different climate scenarios. To do this, we use a new methodological approach implemented within the ModestR software (NOO3D) which allows estimating simple species distribution predictions for future climatic scenarios. Data from 16,825 freshwater fish species were used, representing a total of 1,464,232 occurrence records. WorldClim 1.4 variables representing average climate variables for the 1960-1990 period, together with elevation measurements, were used as predictors in these distribution models, as well as in the selection of the most important variables that account for species distribution changes in two scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 6.0). The predictions produced suggest the extinction of almost half of current freshwater fish species in the coming decades, with a pronounced decline in tropical regions and a greater extinction likelihood for species with smaller body size and/or limited geographical ranges

Global diversity patterns of freshwater fishes - Potential victims of their own success

Aim To examine the pattern and cumulative curve of descriptions of freshwater fishes world-wide, the geographical biases in the available information on that fauna, the relationship between species richness and geographical rarity of such fishes, as well as to assess the relative contributions of different environmental factors on these variables. Location Global. Methods MODESTR was used to summarize the geographical distribution of freshwater fish species using information available from data-based geographical records. The first-order jackknife richness estimator was used to estimate the completeness of such data in all terrestrial 1-degree cells world-wide. An a-shape procedure was used to build range maps capable of providing relatively accurate species richness and geographical rarity values for each grid cell. We also examined the explanatory capacity of a high number of environmental variables using multiple regressions and Support Vector Machine. Results Cumulative species description curves show that a high number of species of freshwater fishes remain to be discovered. Completeness values indicate that only 199 one-degree grid cells, mainly located in eastern North America and Europe, could be considered as having relatively accurate inventories. Range maps provide species richness values that are positively and significantly related to those resulting from the first-order jackknife richness estimator. The relationship between species richness and geographical rarity is triangular, so that these species-rich cells are those with a higher proportion of distributionally rare species. Species richness is predicted by climatic and/or productivity variables but geographical rarity is not. Main conclusions In general, species-rich tropical areas harbour a higher number of narrowly distributed species although comparatively species-poor subtropical cells may also contain narrowly distributed species. Historical factors may help to explain the faunistic composition of these latter areas; a supposition also supported by the low predictive capacity of climatic and productivity variables on geographical rarity values

Predicting the effects of climate change on future freshwater fish diversity at global scale

The aim of the present study was to predict future changes in biodiversity attributes (richness, rarity, heterogeneity, evenness, functional diversity and taxonomic diversity) of freshwater fish species in river basins around the world, under different climate scenarios. To do this, we use a new methodological approach implemented within the ModestR software (NOO3D) which allows estimating simple species distribution predictions for future climatic scenarios. Data from 16,825 freshwater fish species were used, representing a total of 1,464,232 occurrence records. WorldClim 1.4 variables representing average climate variables for the 1960¿1990 period, together with elevation measurements, were used as predictors in these distribution models, as well as in the selection of the most important variables that account for species distribution changes in two scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 6.0). The predictions produced suggest the extinction of almost half of current freshwater fish species in the coming decades, with a pronounced decline in tropical regions and a greater extinction likelihood for species with smaller body size and/or limited geographical ranges.We acknowledge institutional support from the Unit of Information Resources for Research at the Unit of Information Resources for Research at the "Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas" (CSIC) for the article-processing charges contribution

A procedure to assess the spatial variability in the importance of abiotic factors affecting distributions: the case of world freshwater fishes

Understanding the factors shaping species' distributions is a key longstanding topic in ecology with unresolved issues. The aims were to test whether the relative contribution of abiotic factors that set the geographical range of freshwater fish species may vary spatially and/or may depend on the geographical extent that is being considered. The relative contribution of factors, to discriminate between the conditions prevailing in the area where the species is present and those existing in the considered extent, was estimated with the instability index included in the R package SPEDInstabR. We used 3 different extent sizes: 1) each river basin where the species is present (local); 2) all river basins where the species is present (regional); and 3) the whole Earth (global). We used a data set of 16,543 freshwater fish species with a total of 845,764 geographical records, together with bioclimatic and topographic variables. Factors associated with temperature and altitude show the highest relative contribution to explain the distribution of freshwater fishes at the smaller considered extent. Altitude and a mix of factors associated with temperature and precipitation were more important when using the regional extent. Factors associated with precipitation show the highest contribution when using the global extent. There was also spatial variability in the importance of factors, both between species and within species and from region to region. Factors associated with precipitation show a clear latitudinal trend of decreasing in importance toward the equator

Alterations of perineuronal nets in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex of neuropsychiatric patients

Background: Alterations in the structure and physiology of interneurons in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) are important factors in the etiopathology of different psychiatric disorders. Among the interneuronal subpopulations, parvalbumin (PV) expressing cells appear to be specially affected. Interestingly, during development and adulthood the connectivity of these interneurons is regulated by the presence of perineuronal nets (PNNs), specialized regions of the extracellular matrix, which are frequently surrounding PV expressing neurons. Previous reports have found anomalies in the density of PNNs in the PFC of schizophrenic patients. However, although some studies have described alterations in PNNs in some extracortical regions of bipolar disorder patients, there are no studies focusing on the prefrontocortical PNNs of bipolar or major depression patients. For this reason, we have analyzed the density of PNNs in post-mortem sections of the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) from the Stanley Neuropathology Consortium, which includes controls, schizophrenia, bipolar and major depression patients. Results: We have not observed differences in the distribution of PV+ cells or PNNs, or in the percentage of PV+ interneurons surrounded by PNNs. The density of PV+ interneurons was similar in all the experimental groups, but there was a significantly lower density of PNNs in the DLPFC of bipolar disorder patients and a tendency towards a decrease in schizophrenic patients. No differences were found when evaluating the density of PV+ cells surrounded by PNNs. Interestingly, when assessing the influence of demographic data, we found an inverse correlation between the density of PNNs and the presence of psychosis. Conclusions: The present results point to prefrontocortical PNNs and their role in the regulation of neuronal plasticity as putative players in the etiopathology of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. Our findings also suggest a link between these specialized regions of the extracellular matrix and the presence of psychosis

Modestr : a software tool for studying of colombian aquatic ecosystems

ABSTRACT: The aim of this manuscript is to show the usefulness of the software package ModestR in studies of distribution of Colombian marine and freshwater species. This software is free available at the Website: . To show and test the potential of ModestR, here an exemplar assessment is presented of a database using all valid species of freshwater shes of the orders Characiformes and Siluriformes, and their geographical records available in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, 2012), and of the order Carcharhiniformes as representatives of marine species. ModestR includes, in its initial phase, two applications: DataManager and MapMaker. The application DataManager is designed for an integrated taxonomic information and maps of the distribution of any species group. The application MapMaker has been designed to generate species distribution maps in four different ways: 1) by importing a CSV le with the name of the species and their geographical coordinates, 2) importing the geographical records automatically from GBIF, 3) importing geographical coordinates generated by distribution models, and 4) making expert maps by selecting distribution areas, according to the types of habitats occupied by the species. The possibility of working with habitats is one of the most important contributions of ModestR and, in particular, that are mapped small lotic ecosystems (creeks, streams, etc.), large lotic ecosystems (rivers) and lentic ecosystems (ponds, lakes, reservoirs, swamps, etc.). Moreover, it is also possible to select marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, although the manuscript has been focused on species of aquatic ecosystems, ModestR also allows the same type of studies with terrestrial species.RESUMEN: El objetivo de este trabajo es mostrar las utilidades del programa informático ModestR, en estudios sobre distribución de especies en ecosistemas marinos y de agua dulce de Colombia. Este programa se encuentra disponible en la Web de manera gratuita: . Para enseñar y probar el funcionamiento de ModestR se trabajó con los datos disponibles en el Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, 2012) de los órdenes Characiformes y Siluriformes, como ejemplo de especies de peces dulciacuícolas, y del orden Carcharhiniformes de especies marinas. ModestR incluye en su fase inicial, dos aplicaciones: DataManager y MapMaker. La aplicación DataManager está diseñada para realizar manejo integrado de información taxonómica y mapas de distribución de cualquier grupo de especies. La aplicación MapMaker permite generar mapas de distribución de especies de cuatro formas diferentes: 1) importando un archivo CSV con el nombre de las especies y las coordenadas geográ cas, 2) importando los datos automáticamente del GBIF, 3) importando las coordenadas geográ cas generadas de modelos de distribución y 4) realizando mapas expertos, lo cual consiste en seleccionar las áreas de distribución, de acuerdo a los tipos de hábitats en que ocurre la o las especies en estudio. La posibilidad de trabajar con hábitats es una de las contribuciones más importantes de ModestR y, en particular, la de que los hábitats lóticos pequeños (quebradas, arroyos, etc.), los lóticos grandes (ríos) y los lenticos (lagunas, lagos, embalses, ciénagas, etc.) están cartogra ados con muy alta resolución. Además, también se diferencian los ecosistemas marino y terrestre. A pesar de que este estudio se enfocó en especies de ecosistemas acuáticos, ModestR permite también realizar el mismo tipo de ejercicios con especies terrestres

Dietary α‐Linolenic Acid, Marine ω‐3 Fatty Acids, and Mortality in a Population With High Fish Consumption: Findings From the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) Study

Background: Epidemiological evidence suggests a cardioprotective role of α‐linolenic acid (ALA), a plant‐derived ω‐3 fatty acid. It is unclear whether ALA is beneficial in a background of high marine ω‐3 fatty acids (long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) intake. In persons at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a country in which fish consumption is customarily high, we investigated whether meeting the International Society for the Study of Fatty Acids and Lipids recommendation for dietary ALA (0.7% of total energy) at baseline was related to all‐cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. We also examined the effect of meeting the society's recommendation for long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (≥500 mg/day). Methods and Results: We longitudinally evaluated 7202 participants in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) trial. Multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios. ALA intake correlated to walnut consumption (r=0.94). During a 5.9‐y follow‐up, 431 deaths occurred (104 cardiovascular disease, 55 coronary heart disease, 32 sudden cardiac death, 25 stroke). The hazard ratios for meeting ALA recommendation (n=1615, 22.4%) were 0.72 (95% CI 0.56–0.92) for all‐cause mortality and 0.95 (95% CI 0.58–1.57) for fatal cardiovascular disease. The hazard ratios for meeting the recommendation for long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n=5452, 75.7%) were 0.84 (95% CI 0.67–1.05) for all‐cause mortality, 0.61 (95% CI 0.39–0.96) for fatal cardiovascular disease, 0.54 (95% CI 0.29–0.99) for fatal coronary heart disease, and 0.49 (95% CI 0.22–1.01) for sudden cardiac death. The highest reduction in all‐cause mortality occurred in participants meeting both recommendations (hazard ratio 0.63 [95% CI 0.45–0.87]). Conclusions: In participants without prior cardiovascular disease and high fish consumption, dietary ALA, supplied mainly by walnuts and olive oil, relates inversely to all‐cause mortality, whereas protection from cardiac mortality is limited to fish‐derived long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.Controlled-trials.com/. Unique identifier: ISRCTN35739639

Can we derive macroecological patterns from primary Global Biodiversity Information Facility data?

Emilio García-Roselló [et al.]Aim To determine whether the method used to build distributional maps from raw data influences the representation of two principal macroecological patterns: the latitudinal gradient in species richness and the latitudinal variation in range sizes (Rapoport’s rule).Location World-wide.Methods All available distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) for those fish species that are members of orders of fishes with only marine representatives in each order were extracted and cleaned so as to compare four different procedures: point-to-grid (GBIF maps), range maps applying an α -shape [GBIF-extent of occurrence (EOO) maps], the MaxEnt method of species distribution modelling (GBIF-MaxEnt maps) and the MaxEnt method but restricted to the area delimited by the α-shape (GBIF-MaxEnt-restricted maps).Results The location of hotspots and the latitudinal gradient in species richness or range sizes are relatively similar in the four procedures. GBIF-EOO maps and most GBIF-MaxEnt-maps provide overestimations of species richness when compared with those present in a priori well-surveyed cells. GBIF-EOO maps seem to provide more reasonable world macroecological patterns. MaxEnt can erroneously predict the presence of species in environmentally similar cells of another hemisphere or in other regions that lie outside the range of the species. Limiting this overpredictive capacity, as in the case of GBIF-MaxEnt-restricted maps, seems to mimic the frequency of observations derived from a simple point-to-grid procedure, with the utility of this procedure consequently being limited.Main conclusions In studies of macroecological patterns at a global scale, the simple α-shape method seems to be a more parsimonious option for extrapolating species distributions from primary data than are distribution models performed indiscriminately and automatically with MaxEnt. GBIF data may be used in macroecological patterns if original data are cleaned, autocorrelation is corrected and species richness figures do not constitute obvious underestimations. Efforts therefore should focus on improving the number and quality of records that can serve as the source of primary data in macroecological studies.Peer reviewe