A new tunnel assessment procedure integrating smoke dispersion and evacuation models

International audienceThis paper focuses on a new risk assessment procedure for tunnel. This procedure is based on the coupling between smoke dispersion models and evacuation models. It has been developed inside the UPGRADE procedure put in place in the UPTUN project. The method is based on two heat and mass flow (HMF) models for the calculation of tenability conditions due to a fire event: NewVendis for the 1D calculation and the global equilibrium of the tunnel network and FASIT for the calculation in the vicinity of the fire. Tenability conditions are used as input data for the evacuation calculation carried out by the evacuation model CRISP . All results (smoke dispersion and evacuation) are then combined in tenability diagrams which are a superposition of HMF tenability conditions and users' location in the tunnel. This kind of presentation can then be used to help understand injuries or people casualties and to take efficient safety measures to increase safety level in tunnel

Sensor-steered fire simulation

A sensor-linked modelling tool for live prediction of uncontrolled compartment fires, K-CRISP, has been developed in order to facilitate emergency response via novel systems such as FireGrid. The modelling strategy is an extension of the Monte-Carlo fire model, CRISP, linking simulations to sensor inputs which controls evolution of the parametric space in which new scenarios are generated, thereby representing real-time “learning” about the fire. CRISP itself is based on a zone model representation of the fire, with linked capabilities for egress modelling and failure prediction for structural members, thus providing a major advantage over more detailed approaches in terms of flexibility and practicality, though with the conventional limitations of zone models. Large numbers of scenarios are required, but computational demands are mitigated to some extent by various procedures to limit the parameters which need to be varied. HPC (high performance computing) resources are exploited in “urgent computing” mode. The approach adopted for steering is shown to be effective in directing the evolution of the fire parameters, thereby driving the fire predictions towards the measurements. Moreover, the availability of probabilistic information in the output assists in providing potential end users with an indication of the likelihood of various hazard scenarios. The best forecasts are those for the immediate future, or for relatively simple fires, with progressively less confidence at longer lead times and in more complex scenarios. Given the uncertainties in real fire development the benefits of more detailed model representations may be marginal and the system developed thus far is considered to be an appropriate engineering approach to the problem, providing information of potential benefit in emergency response

Sensor-Linked Simulation for Emergency Response

The FireGrid project defines a vision whereby computational fire simulation tools are linked to real-time information derived from sensors in a building, providing potentially valuable information to an end user in terms of the current fire conditions, and, via steered models, their possible evolution. This paper outlines the “steering” of the simulation by the sensor data, and demonstrates the potential to provide responders with more information than that available solely from the sensor measurements. A hypothetical example is described, with a coupled model of fire development and human evacuation behaviour used to predict the locations in the building where casualties are most likely to occur

Sensor-linked fire simulation using a Monte-Carlo approach

Peer-reviewed article published in the Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Karlsruhe, 2008.This study is aimed at developing a predictive capability for uncontrolled compartment fires which can be “steered” by real-time measurements. This capability is an essential step towards facilitating emergency response via systems such as FireGrid, which seek to provide fire and rescue services with information on the possible evolution of fire incidents on the scene. The strategy proposed to achieve this is a novel coupled simulation tool, based on the Monte-Carlo-based fire model, CRISP, with scenario selection achieved via comparison with (pseudo) sensor inputs. Here, some key aspects of such a system are illustrated and discussed in the context of the detailed measurements obtained in the full-scale fire test undertaken in a furnished apartment at Dalmarnock. The capability of CRISP in reproducing the fire conditions – given knowledge of the approximate heat release rate in the fire – was first verified. It is then shown that continuous selection from amongst a multiplicity of scenarios generated in Monte-Carlo fashion can be achieved, so that the predictions evolve in a way that closely follows the real fire conditions. Whilst the benefits of sensor-steering are already clearly apparent, further improvements will be possible by establishing an appropriate feedback loop between the results assessment and the parametric space in which new fires are generated, perhaps using Bayesian methods. Nevertheless, true predictive capability remains crucially dependent on the sufficient representation in the model of the mechanisms of fire growth, and this must be the focus in achieving better forecasting ability

InterPro in 2011: new developments in the family and domain prediction database

InterPro (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro/) is a database that integrates diverse information about protein families, domains and functional sites, and makes it freely available to the public via Web-based interfaces and services. Central to the database are diagnostic models, known as signatures, against which protein sequences can be searched to determine their potential function. InterPro has utility in the large-scale analysis of whole genomes and meta-genomes, as well as in characterizing individual protein sequences. Herein we give an overview of new developments in the database and its associated software since 2009, including updates to database content, curation processes and Web and programmatic interface

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked