Dairy herd mastitis and reproduction: using simulation to aid interpretation of results from discrete time survival analysis

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is a simulation-based technique for evaluating the relative importance of different inputs to a complex process model. It is commonly employed in decision analysis and for evaluation of the potential impact of uncertainty in research findings on clinical practice, but has a wide variety of other possible applications. In this example, it was used to evaluate the association between herd-level udder health and reproductive performance in dairy herds. Although several recent studies have found relatively large associations between mastitis and fertility at the level of individual inseminations or lactations, the current study demonstrated that herd-level intramammary infection status is highly unlikely to have a clinically significant impact on the overall reproductive performance of a dairy herd under typical conditions. For example, a large increase in incidence rate of clinical mastitis (from 92 to 131 cases per 100 cows per year) would be expected to increase a herd's modified FERTEX score (a cost-based measure of overall reproductive performance) by just £4.501 per cow per year. The herd's background level of submission rate (proportion of eligible cows served every 21 days) and pregnancy risk (proportion of inseminations leading to a pregnancy) correlated strongly with overall reproductive performance and explained a large proportion of the between-herd variation in performance. PSA proved to be a highly useful technique to aid understanding of results from a complex statistical model, and has great potential for a wide variety of applications within the field of veterinary science

Direct and indirect effects of Johne's disease on farm and animal productivity in an Irish dairy herd

Johne's disease (JD) is caused by infection with the organism Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis, leading to chronic diarrhoea and ill thrift in adult cattle. JD is considered to adversely affect farm performance and profitability. This retrospective case study was undertaken on a single commercial dairy herd in the south west of Ireland. Animal production records were interrogated to assess the effect of JD on milk yield (total kg per lactation), somatic cell count (the geometric mean over the lactation), reasons for culling, cull price and changes in herd parity structure over time. JD groups were defined using clinical signs and test results. One control animal was matched to each case animal on parity number and year. Specific lactations (clinical, pre-clinical and test-positive only) from 1994 to 2004 were compared between JD case and control cows. A significantly lower milk yield (1259.3 kg/lactation) was noted from cows with clinical JD in comparison to their matched control group. Clinical animals had an average cull price of €516 less than animals culled without signs of clinical disease. In contrast, little effect was noted for sub-clinical infections. These direct effects of JD infections, in combination with increased culling for infertility and increasing replacement rates, had a negative impact on farm production. Results from this study provide preliminary information regarding the effects of JD status on both herd and animal-level performance in Ireland

Evaluation of two dairy herd reproductive performance indicators that are adjusted for voluntary waiting period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overall reproductive performance of dairy herds is monitored by various indicators. Most of them do not consider all eligible animals and do not consider different management strategies at farm level. This problem can be alleviated by measuring the proportion of pregnant cows by specific intervals after their calving date or after a fixed time period, such as the voluntary waiting period. The aim of this study was to evaluate two reproductive performance indicators that consider the voluntary waiting period at the herd. The two indicators were: percentage of pregnant cows in the herd after the voluntary waiting period plus 30 days (PV30) and percentage of inseminated cows in the herd after the voluntary waiting period plus 30 days (IV30). We wanted to assess how PV30 and IV30 perform in a simulation of herds with different reproductive management and physiology and to compare them to indicators of reproductive performance that do not consider the herd voluntary waiting period.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To evaluate the reproductive indicators we used the SimHerd-program, a stochastic simulation model, and 18 scenarios were simulated. The scenarios were designed by altering the reproductive management efficiency and the status of reproductive physiology of the herd. Logistic regression models, together with receiver operating characteristics (ROC), were used to examine how well the reproductive performance indicators could discriminate between herds of different levels of reproductive management efficiency or reproductive physiology.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The logistic regression models with the ROC analysis showed that IV30 was the indicator that best discriminated between different levels of management efficiency followed by PV30, calving interval, 200-days not-in calf-rate (NotIC200), in calf rate at100-days (IC100) and a fertility index. For reproductive physiology the ROC analysis showed that the fertility index was the indicator that best discriminated between different levels, followed by PV30, NotIC200, IC100 and the calving interval. IV30 could not discriminate between the two levels.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PV30 is the single best performance indicator for estimating the level of both herd management efficiency and reproductive physiology followed by NotIC200 and IC100. This indicates that PV30 could be a potential candidate for inclusion in dairy herd improvement schemes.</p

Ecological Meltdown in the Firth of Clyde, Scotland: Two Centuries of Change in a Coastal Marine Ecosystem

BACKGROUND: The Firth of Clyde is a large inlet of the sea that extends over 100 km into Scotland\u27s west coast. METHODS: We compiled detailed fisheries landings data for this area and combined them with historical accounts to build a picture of change due to fishing activity over the last 200 years. FINDINGS: In the early 19th century, prior to the onset of industrial fishing, the Firth of Clyde supported diverse and productive fisheries for species such as herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae), cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus, Gadidae), turbot (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae) and flounder (Platichthys flesus, Pleuronectidae). The 19th century saw increased demand for fish, which encouraged more indiscriminate methods of fishing such as bottom trawling. During the 1880s, fish landings began to decline, and upon the recommendation of local fishers and scientists, the Firth of Clyde was closed to large trawling vessels in 1889. This closure remained in place until 1962 when bottom trawling for Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus, Nephropidae) was approved in areas more than three nautical miles from the coast. During the 1960s and 1970s, landings of bottomfish increased as trawling intensified. The trawl closure within three nautical miles of the coast was repealed in 1984 under pressure from the industry. Thereafter, bottomfish landings went into terminal decline, with all species collapsing to zero or near zero landings by the early 21st century. Herring fisheries collapsed in the 1970s as more efficient mid-water trawls and fish finders were introduced, while a fishery for mid-water saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae) underwent a boom and bust shortly after discovery in the late 1960s. The only commercial fisheries that remain today are for Nephrops and scallops (Pecten maximus, Pectinidae). SIGNIFICANCE: The Firth of Clyde is a marine ecosystem nearing the endpoint of overfishing, a time when no species remain that are capable of sustaining commercial catches. The evidence suggests that trawl closures helped maintain productive fisheries through the mid-20th century, and their reopening precipitated collapse of bottomfish stocks. We argue that continued intensive bottom trawling for Nephrops with fine mesh nets will prevent the recovery of other species. This once diverse and highly productive environment will only be restored if trawl closures or other protected areas are re-introduced. The Firth of Clyde represents at a small scale a process that is occurring ocean-wide today, and its experience serves as a warning to others

Polymorphisms in the selectin gene cluster are associated with fertility and survival time in a population of Holstein Friesian cows

Selectins are adhesion molecules, which mediate attachment between leucocytes and endothelium. They aid extravasation of leucocytes from blood into inflamed tissue during the mammary gland’s response to infection. Selectins are also involved in attachment of the conceptus to the endometrium and subsequent placental development. Poor fertility and udder health are major causes for culling dairy cows. The three identified bovine selectin genes SELP, SELL and SELE are located in a gene cluster. SELP is the most polymorphic of these genes. Several SNP in SELP and SELE are associated with human vascular disease, while SELP SNP rs6127 has been associated with recurrent pregnancy loss in women. This study describes the results of a gene association study for SNP in SELP (n = 5), SELL (n = 2) and SELE (n = 1) with fertility, milk production and longevity traits in a population of 337 Holstein Friesian dairy cows. Blood samples for PCR-RFLP were collected at 6 months of age and animals were monitored until either culling or 2,340 days from birth. Three SNP in SELPEx4-6 formed a haplotype block containing a Glu/Ala substitution at rs42312260. This region was associated with poor fertility and reduced survival times. SELPEx8 (rs378218397) coded for a Val475Met variant locus in the linking region between consensus repeats 4 and 5, which may influence glycosylation. The synonymous SNP rs110045112 in SELEEx14 deviated from Hardy Weinberg equilibrium. For both this SNP and rs378218397 there were too few AA homozygotes present in the population and AG heterozygotes had significantly worse fertility than GG homozygotes. Small changes in milk production associated with some SNP could not account for the reduced fertility and only SELPEx6 showed any association with somatic cell count. These results suggest that polymorphisms in SELP and SELE are associated with the likelihood of successful pregnancy, potentially through compromised implantation and placental development