The IPCC on a heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period

In their 2007 report, IPCC working group 1 refers to an increased heterogeneity of climate during medieval times about 1000years ago. This conclusion would be of relevance, as it implies a contrast in the spatial signature and forcing of current warmth to that during the Medieval Warm Period. Our analysis of the data displayed in the IPCC report, however, shows no indication of an increased spread between long-term proxy records. We emphasize the relevance of sample replication issues, and argue that an estimation of long-term spatial homogeneity changes is premature based on the smattering of data currently availabl

Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees

Two hundred and sixty one newly measured tree-ring width and density series from living and dry-dead conifers from two timberline sites in the Spanish Pyrenees were compiled. Application of the regional curve standardization method for tree-ring detrending allowed the preservation of inter-annual to multi-centennial scale variability. The new density record correlates at 0.53 (0.68 in the higher frequency domain) with May-September maximum temperatures over the 1944-2005 period. Reconstructed warmth in the fourteenth to fifteenth and twentieth century is separated by a prolonged cooling from ∼1450 to 1850. Six of the ten warmest decades fall into the twentieth century, whereas the remaining four are reconstructed for the 1360-1440 interval. Comparison with novel density-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Swiss Alps and northern Sweden indicates decadal to longer-term similarity between the Pyrenees and Alps, but disagreement with northern Sweden. Spatial field correlations with instrumental data support the regional differentiation of the proxy records. While twentieth century warmth is evident in the Alps and Pyrenees, recent temperatures in Scandinavia are relatively cold in comparison to earlier warmth centered around medieval times, ∼1450, and the late eighteenth century. While coldest summers in the Alps and Pyrenees were in-phase with the Maunder and Dalton solar minima, lowest temperatures in Scandinavia occurred later at the onset of the twentieth century. However, fairly cold summers at the end of the fifteenth century, between ∼1600-1700, and ∼1820 were synchronized over Europe, and larger areas of the Northern Hemispher

Seasonal changes in urban PM2.5 hotspots and sources from low-cost sensors

PM2.5 concentrations in urban areas are highly variable, both spatially and seasonally. To assess these patterns and the underlying sources, we conducted PM2.5 exposure measurements at the adult breath level (1.6 m) along three ~5 km routes in urban districts of Mainz (Germany) using portable low-cost Alphasense OPC-N3 sensors. The survey took place on five consecutive days including four runs each day (38 in total) in September 2020 and March 2021. While the between sensor accuracy was tested to be good (R2 = 0.98), the recorded PM2.5 values underestimated the official measurement station data by up to 25 µg/m3. The collected data showed no consistent PM2.5 hotspots between September and March. Whereas during the fall, the pedestrian and park areas appeared as hotspots in >60% of the runs, construction sites and a bridge with high traffic intensity stuck out in spring. We considered PM2.5/PM10 ratios to assign anthropogenic emission sources with high apportionment of PM2.5 in PM10 (>0.6), except for the parks (0.24) where fine particles likely originated from unpaved surfaces. The spatial PM2.5 apportionment in PM10 increased from September (0.56) to March (0.76) because of a pronounced cooler thermal inversion accumulating fine particles near ground. Our results showed that highly resolved low-cost measurements can help to identify PM2.5 hotspots and be used to differentiate types of particle sources via PM2.5/PM10 ratios

Diverse climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width and density

Understanding long-term environmental controls on the formation of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) is fundamental for evaluating parameter-specific growth characteristics and climate reconstruction skills. This is of particular interest for mid-latitudinal environments where future rates of climate change are expected to be most rapid. Here we present a network of 28 TRW and 21 MXD chronologies from living and relict conifers. Data cover an area from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Mediterranean Sea in the east and an altitudinal gradient from 1,000 to 2,500m asl. Age trends, spatial autocorrelation functions, carry-over effects, variance changes, and climate responses were analyzed for the individual sites and two parameter-specific regional means. Variations in warm season (May-September) temperature mainly control MXD formation (r=0.58 to 0.87 from inter-annual to decadal time-scales), whereas lower TRW sensitivity to temperature remains unstable over space and tim

Fading temperature sensitivity of Alpine tree growth at its Mediterranean margin and associated effects on large-scale climate reconstructions

A millennium-long tree-ring width chronology of living and dead larch (Larix decidua Mill.) specimens from the Maritime French Alps was introduced 35years ago. This record has been included in various large-scale temperature reconstructions, though recent analyses revealed only weak associations with regional summer temperatures. Calibration and verification trials against instrumental measurements were, however, limited by the original record's early ending in 1974. Here we introduce an update of this widely considered chronology until 2007 and back into medieval times. A total of 297 new larch samples from high-elevation settings in the southern French Alps were included, and the combined 398 measurement series allowed effects of tree-ring detrending and chronology development to be explored. Comparisons with meteorological temperature, precipitation and drought indices revealed weak and temporally inconsistent climate sensitivity. To further place these local findings in a biogeographic context, we used >3,000 larch trees from 61 locations across the Alpine arc. This unique network approach confirmed fading temperature sensitivity with decreasing latitude, and thus questioned the overall reliability of ring width-based temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean region. Our results further emphasize the pending need to develop chronologies from maximum latewood densities and stable isotope ratios across the lower latitudes, and to carefully evaluate ecological site conditions and methodological data restrictions prior to compiling local data into global network

RAVEN: Reinforcement Learning for Generating Verifiable Run-Time Requirement Enforcers for MPSoCs

In embedded systems, applications frequently have to meet non-functional requirements regarding, e.g., real-time or energy consumption constraints, when executing on a given MPSoC target platform. Feedback-based controllers have been proposed that react to transient environmental factors by adapting the DVFS settings or degree of parallelism following some predefined control strategy. However, it is, in general, not possible to give formal guarantees for the obtained controllers to satisfy a given set of non-functional requirements. Run-time requirement enforcement has emerged as a field of research for the enforcement of non-functional requirements at run-time, allowing to define and formally verify properties on respective control strategies specified by automata. However, techniques for the automatic generation of such controllers have not yet been established. In this paper, we propose a technique using reinforcement learning to automatically generate verifiable feedback-based enforcers. For that, we train a control policy based on a representative input sequence at design time. The learned control strategy is then transformed into a verifiable enforcement automaton which constitutes our run-time control model that can handle unseen input data. As a case study, we apply the approach to generate controllers that are able to increase the probability of satisfying a given set of requirement verification goals compared to multiple state-of-the-art approaches, as can be verified by model checkers

Uniform growth trends among central Asian low- and high-elevation juniper tree sites

We present an analysis of 28 juniper tree-ring sites sampled over the last decades by several research teams in the Tien Shan and Karakorum mountains of western central Asia. Ring-width chronologies were developed on a site-by-site basis, using a detrending technique designed to retain low-frequency climate variations. Site chronologies were grouped according to their distance from the upper timberline in the Tien Shan (∼3,400ma.s.l.) and Karakorum (∼4,000m), and low- and high-elevation composite chronologies combining data from both mountain systems developed. Comparison of these elevational subsets revealed significant coherence (r=0.72) over the 1438-1995 common period, which is inconsistent with the concept of differing environmental signals captured in tree-ring data along elevational gradients. It is hypothesized that the uniform growth behavior in central Asian juniper trees has been forced by solar radiation variations controlled via cloud cover changes, but verification of this assumption requires further fieldwork. The high-elevation composite chronology was further compared with existing temperature reconstructions from the Karakorum and Tien Shan, and long-term trend differences discussed. We concluded that the extent of warmth during medieval times cannot be precisely estimated based on ring-width data currently availabl

A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer temperatures

A June-August Alpine temperature proxy series is developed back to AD 951 using 1,527 ring-width measurements from living trees and relict wood. The reconstruction is composed of larch data from four Alpine valleys in Switzerland and pine data from the western Austrian Alps. These regions are situated in high elevation Alpine environments where a spatially homogenous summer temperature signal exists. In an attempt to capture the full frequency range of summer temperatures over the past millennium, from inter-annual to multi-centennial scales, the regional curve standardization technique is applied to the ring width measurements. Correlations of 0.65 and 0.86 after decadal smoothing, with high elevation meteorological stations since 1864 indicate an optimal response of the RCS chronology to June-August mean temperatures. The proxy record reveals warm conditions from before AD 1000 into the thirteenth century, followed by a prolonged cool period, reaching minimum values in the 1820s, and a warming trend into the twentieth century. This latter trend and the higher frequency variations compare well with the actual high elevation temperature record. The new central Alpine proxy suggests that summer temperatures during the last decade are unprecedented over the past millennium. It also reveals significant similarities at inter-decadal to multi-centennial frequencies with large-scale temperature reconstructions, however, deviating during certain periods from H.H. Lamb‘s European/North Atlantic temperature histor