A heteroskedastic error covariance matrix estimator using a first-order conditional autoregressive Markov simulation for deriving asympotical efficient estimates from ecological sampled Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat covariates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autoregressive regression coefficients for <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat models are usually assessed using global error techniques and are reported as error covariance matrices. A global statistic, however, will summarize error estimates from multiple habitat locations. This makes it difficult to identify where there are clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats of acceptable prediction. It is therefore useful to conduct some form of spatial error analysis to detect clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on uncertainty residuals from individual sampled habitats. In this research, a method of error estimation for spatial simulation models was demonstrated using autocorrelation indices and eigenfunction spatial filters to distinguish among the effects of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic simulation of ecological sampled <it>Anopheles </it>aquatic habitat covariates. A test for diagnostic checking error residuals in an <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat model may enable intervention efforts targeting productive habitats clusters, based on larval/pupal productivity, by using the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates from a residual autocovariance matrix. The models considered in this research extends a normal regression analysis previously considered in the literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Field and remote-sampled data were collected during July 2006 to December 2007 in Karima rice-village complex in Mwea, Kenya. SAS 9.1.4^®was used to explore univariate statistics, correlations, distributions, and to generate global autocorrelation statistics from the ecological sampled datasets. A local autocorrelation index was also generated using spatial covariance parameters (i.e., Moran's Indices) in a SAS/GIS^®database. The Moran's statistic was decomposed into orthogonal and uncorrelated synthetic map pattern components using a Poisson model with a gamma-distributed mean (i.e. negative binomial regression). The eigenfunction values from the spatial configuration matrices were then used to define expectations for prior distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. A set of posterior means were defined in WinBUGS 1.4.3^®. After the model had converged, samples from the conditional distributions were used to summarize the posterior distribution of the parameters. Thereafter, a spatial residual trend analyses was used to evaluate variance uncertainty propagation in the model using an autocovariance error matrix.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By specifying coefficient estimates in a Bayesian framework, the covariate number of tillers was found to be a significant predictor, positively associated with <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats. The spatial filter models accounted for approximately 19% redundant locational information in the ecological sampled <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat data. In the residual error estimation model there was significant positive autocorrelation (i.e., clustering of habitats in geographic space) based on log-transformed larval/pupal data and the sampled covariate depth of habitat.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An autocorrelation error covariance matrix and a spatial filter analyses can prioritize mosquito control strategies by providing a computationally attractive and feasible description of variance uncertainty estimates for correctly identifying clusters of prolific <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on larval/pupal productivity.</p

Environmental factors associated with the malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus in Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>and <it>Anopheles funestus </it>mosquito species complexes are the primary vectors of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand the environmental factors influencing these species, the abundance, distribution and transmission data from a south-eastern Kenyan study were retrospectively analysed, and the climate, vegetation and elevation data in key locations compared.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty villages in Malindi, Kilifi and Kwale Districts with data on <it>An. gambiae sensu strict</it>, <it>Anopheles arabiensis</it> and <it>An. funestus</it> entomological inoculation rates (EIRs), were used as focal points for spatial and environmental analyses. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's <it>I </it>statistic, and for the clustering of high or low EIR values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Environmental data were derived from remote-sensed satellite sources of precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and elevation. The relationship between transmission and environmental measures was examined using bivariate correlations, and by comparing environmental means between locations of high and low clustering using the Mann-Whitney <it>U </it>test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Spatial analyses indicated positive autocorrelation of <it>An. arabiensis </it>and <it>An. funestus </it>transmission, but not of <it>An. gambiae s.s</it>., which was found to be widespread across the study region. The spatial clustering of high EIR values for <it>An. arabiensis </it>was confined to the lowland areas of Malindi, and for <it>An. funestus </it>to the southern districts of Kilifi and Kwale. Overall, <it>An. gambiae s.s</it>. and <it>An. arabiensis </it>had similar spatial and environmental trends, with higher transmission associated with higher precipitation, but lower temperature, humidity and NDVI measures than those locations with lower transmission by these species and/or in locations where transmission by <it>An. funestus </it>was high. Statistical comparisons indicated that precipitation and temperatures were significantly different between the <it>An. arabiensis </it>and <it>An. funestus </it>high and low transmission locations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These finding suggest that the abundance, distribution and malaria transmission of different malaria vectors are driven by different environmental factors. A better understanding of the specific ecological parameters of each malaria mosquito species will help define their current distributions, and how they may currently and prospectively be affected by climate change, interventions and other factors.</p

Anopheles larval abundance and diversity in three rice agro-village complexes Mwea irrigation scheme, central Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The diversity and abundance of <it>Anopheles </it>larvae has significant influence on the resulting adult mosquito population and hence the dynamics of malaria transmission. Studies were conducted to examine larval habitat dynamics and ecological factors affecting survivorship of aquatic stages of malaria vectors in three agro-ecological settings in Mwea, Kenya.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three villages were selected based on rice husbandry and water management practices. Aquatic habitats in the 3 villages representing planned rice cultivation (Mbui Njeru), unplanned rice cultivation (Kiamachiri) and non-irrigated (Murinduko) agro-ecosystems were sampled every 2 weeks to generate stage-specific estimates of mosquito larval densities, relative abundance and diversity. Records of distance to the nearest homestead, vegetation coverage, surface debris, turbidity, habitat stability, habitat type, rice growth stage, number of rice tillers and percent <it>Azolla </it>cover were taken for each habitat.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Captures of early, late instars and pupae accounted for 78.2%, 10.9% and 10.8% of the total <it>Anopheles </it>immatures sampled (n = 29,252), respectively. There were significant differences in larval abundance between 3 agro-ecosystems. The village with 'planned' rice cultivation had relatively lower <it>Anopheles </it>larval densities compared to the villages where 'unplanned' or non-irrigated. Similarly, species composition and richness was higher in the two villages with either 'unplanned' or limited rice cultivation, an indication of the importance of land use patterns on diversity of larval habitat types. Rice fields and associated canals were the most productive habitat types while water pools and puddles were important for short periods during the rainy season. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that presence of other invertebrates, percentage <it>Azolla </it>cover, distance to nearest homestead, depth and water turbidity were the best predictors for <it>Anopheles </it>mosquito larval abundance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that agricultural practices have significant influence on mosquito species diversity and abundance and that certain habitat characteristics favor production of malaria vectors. These factors should be considered when implementing larval control strategies which should be targeted based on habitat productivity and water management.</p

Plasmodium falciparum transmission and aridity: a Kenyan experience from the dry lands of Baringo and its implications for Anopheles arabiensis control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ecology of malaria vectors particularly in semi-arid areas of Africa is poorly understood. Accurate knowledge on this subject will boost current efforts to reduce the burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to describe the dynamics of malaria transmission in two model semi-arid sites (Kamarimar and Tirion) in Baringo in Kenya.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adult mosquitoes were collected indoors by pyrethrum spray collections (PSC) and outdoors by Centers for Disease Control (CDC) light traps and identified to species by morphological characteristics. Sibling species of <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>complex were further characterized by rDNA. PCR and enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assays (ELISA) were used to test for <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>circumsporozoite proteins and host blood meal sources respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>was not only the most dominant mosquito species in both study sites but also the only sibling species of <it>An. gambiae s.l. </it>present in the area. Other species identified in the study area were <it>Anopheles funestus</it>, <it>Anopheles pharoensis </it>and <it>Anopheles coustani</it>. For Kamarimar but not Tirion, the human blood index (HBI) for light trap samples was significantly higher than for PSC samples (Kamarimar, 0.63 and 0.11, Tirion, 0.48 and 0.43). The HBI for light trap samples was significantly higher in Kamarimar than in Tirion while that of PSC samples was significantly higher in Tirion than in Kamarimar. Entomological inoculation rates (EIR) were only detected for one month in Kamarimar and 3 months in Tirion. The number of houses in a homestead, number of people sleeping in the house, quality of the house, presence or absence of domestic animals, and distance to the animal shelter and the nearest larval habitat were significant predictors of <it>An. arabiensis </it>occurrence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Malaria transmission in the study area is seasonal with <it>An. arabiensis </it>as the dominant vector. The fact this species feeds readily on humans and domestic animals suggest that zooprophylaxis may be a plausible malaria control strategy in semi-arid areas of Africa. The results also suggest that certain household characteristics may increase the risk of malaria transmission.</p

Host choice and multiple blood feeding behaviour of malaria vectors and other anophelines in Mwea rice scheme, Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies were conducted between April 2004 and February 2006 to determine the blood-feeding pattern of <it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes in Mwea Kenya.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Samples were collected indoors by pyrethrum spay catch and outdoors by Centers for Disease Control light traps and processed for blood meal analysis by an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 3,333 blood-fed <it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes representing four <it>Anopheles </it>species were collected and 2,796 of the samples were assayed, with <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>comprising 76.2% (n = 2,542) followed in decreasing order by <it>Anopheles coustani </it>8.9% (n = 297), <it>Anopheles pharoensis </it>8.2% (n = 272) and <it>Anopheles funestus </it>6.7% (n = 222). All mosquito species had a high preference for bovine (range 56.3–71.4%) over human (range 1.1–23.9%) or goat (0.1–2.2%) blood meals. Some individuals from all the four species were found to contain mixed blood meals. The bovine blood index (BBI) for <it>An. arabiensis </it>was significantly higher for populations collected indoors (71.8%), than populations collected outdoors (41.3%), but the human blood index (HBI) did not differ significantly between the two populations. In contrast, BBI for indoor collected <it>An. funestus </it>(51.4%) was significantly lower than for outdoor collected populations (78.0%) and the HBI was significantly higher indoors (28.7%) than outdoors (2.4%). Anthropophily of <it>An. funestus </it>was lowest within the rice scheme, moderate in unplanned rice agro-ecosystem, and highest within the non-irrigated agro-ecosystem. Anthropophily of <it>An. arabiensis </it>was significantly higher in the non-irrigated agro-ecosystem than in the other agro-ecosystems.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that rice cultivation has an effect on host choice by <it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes. The study further indicate that zooprophylaxis may be a potential strategy for malaria control, but there is need to assess how domestic animals may influence arboviruses epidemiology before adapting the strategy.</p

Effects of co-habitation between Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Culex quinquefasciatus aquatic stages on life history traits

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effective measures for the control of malaria and filariasis vectors can be achieved by targeting immature stages of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes in productive habitat. To design this strategy, the mechanisms (like biotic interactions with conspecifc and heterospecific larvae) regulating mosquito aquatic stages survivorship, development time and the size of emerging adults should be understood. This study explored the effect of co-habitation between <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>on different life history traits of both species under different densities and constant food supply in the habitats of the same size under semi-natural conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Experiments were set up with three combinations; <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>alone (single species treatment), <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. alone (single species treatment); and <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. with <it>Cx. quiquefasciatus </it>(co-habitation treatment) in different densities in semi field situation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The effect of co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>was found to principally affect three parameters. The wing-lengths (a proxy measure of body size) of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. in co-habitation treatments were significantly shorter in both females and males than in <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s single species treatments. In <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus</it>, no significant differences in wing-length were observed between the single species and co-habitation treatments. Daily survival rates were not significantly different between co-habitation and single species treatments for both <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus</it>. Developmental time was found to be significantly different with single species treatments developing better than co-habitation treatments. Sex ratio was found to be significantly different from the proportion of 0.5 among single and co-habitation treatments species at different densities. Single species treatments had more males than females emerging while in co-habitation treatments more females emerged than males. In this study, there was no significant competitive survival advantage in co-habitation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>in semi-natural conditions affect mostly <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. body size. Hence, more has to be understood on the effects of co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>in a natural ecology and its possible consequences in malaria and filariasis epidemiology.</p

Malaria vectors and transmission dynamics in Goulmoun, a rural city in south-western Chad

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Knowledge of some baseline entomological data such as Entomological Inoculation Rates (EIR) is crucially needed to assess the epidemiological impact of malaria control activities directed either against parasites or vectors. In Chad, most published surveys date back to the 1960's. In this study, anopheline species composition and their relation to malaria transmission were investigated in a dry Sudanian savannas area of Chad.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 12-month longitudinal survey was conducted in the irrigated rice-fields area of Goulmoun in south western Chad. Human landing catches were performed each month from July 2006 to June 2007 in three compounds (indoors and outdoors) and pyrethrum spray collections were conducted in July, August and October 2006 in 10 randomly selected rooms. Mosquitoes belonging to the <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>complex and to the <it>An. funestus </it>group were identified by molecular diagnostic tools. <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection and blood meal sources were detected by ELISA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nine anopheline species were collected by the two sampling methods. The most aggressive species were <it>An. arabiensis </it>(51 bites/human/night), <it>An. pharoensis </it>(12.5 b/h/n), <it>An. funestus </it>(1.5 b/h/n) and <it>An. ziemanni </it>(1.3 b/h/n). The circumsporozoite protein rate was 1.4% for <it>An. arabiensis</it>, 1.4% for <it>An. funestus</it>, 0.8% for <it>An. pharoensis </it>and 0.5% for <it>An. ziemanni</it>. Malaria transmission is seasonal, lasting from April to December. However, more than 80% of the total EIR was concentrated in the period from August to October. The overall annual EIR was estimated at 311 bites of infected anophelines/human/year, contributed mostly by <it>An. arabiensis </it>(84.5%) and <it>An. pharoensis </it>(12.2%). <it>Anopheles funestus </it>and <it>An. ziemanni </it>played a minor role. Parasite inoculation occurred mostly after 22:00 hours but around 20% of bites of infected anophelines were distributed earlier in the evening.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study revealed the implication of <it>An. pharoensis </it>in malaria transmission in the irrigated rice fields of Goulmoun, complementing the major role played by <it>An. arabiensis</it>. The transmission period did not depend upon irrigation. Correct use of insecticide treated nets in this area may be effective for vector control although additional protective measures are needed to prevent pre-bedtime exposure to the bites of infected anophelines.</p

Use of Integrated Malaria Management Reduces Malaria in Kenya

BACKGROUND: During an entomological survey in preparation for malaria control interventions in Mwea division, the number of malaria cases at the Kimbimbi sub-district hospital was in a steady decline. The underlying factors for this reduction were unknown and needed to be identified before any malaria intervention tools were deployed in the area. We therefore set out to investigate the potential factors that could have contributed to the decline of malaria cases in the hospital by analyzing the malaria control knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) that the residents in Mwea applied in an integrated fashion, also known as integrated malaria management (IMM). METHODS: Integrated Malaria Management was assessed among community members of Mwea division, central Kenya using KAP survey. The KAP study evaluated community members' malaria disease management practices at the home and hospitals, personal protection measures used at the household level and malaria transmission prevention methods relating to vector control. Concurrently, we also passively examined the prevalence of malaria parasite infection via outpatient admission records at the major referral hospital in the area. In addition we studied the mosquito vector population dynamics, the malaria sporozoite infection status and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) over an 8 month period in 6 villages to determine the risk of malaria transmission in the entire division. RESULTS: A total of 389 households in Mwea division were interviewed in the KAP study while 90 houses were surveyed in the entomological study. Ninety eight percent of the households knew about malaria disease while approximately 70% of households knew its symptoms and methods to manage it. Ninety seven percent of the interviewed households went to a health center for malaria diagnosis and treatment. Similarly a higher proportion (81%) used anti-malarial medicines bought from local pharmacies. Almost 90% of households reported owning and using an insecticide treated bed net and 81% reported buying the nets within the last 5 years. The community also used mosquito reduction measures including, in order of preference, environmental management (35%), mosquito repellent and smoke (31%) insecticide canister sprays (11%), and window and door screens (6%). These methods used by the community comprise an integrated malaria management (IMM) package. Over the last 4 years prior to this study, the malaria cases in the community hospital reduced from about 40% in 2000 to less than 10% by 2004 and by the year 2007 malaria cases decreased to zero. In addition, a one time cross-sectional malaria parasite survey detected no Plasmodium infection in 300 primary school children in the area. Mosquito vector populations were variable in the six villages but were generally lower in villages that did not engage in irrigation activities. The malaria risk as estimated by EIR remained low and varied by village and proximity to irrigation areas. The average EIR in the area was estimated at 0.011 infectious bites per person per day. CONCLUSIONS: The usage of a combination of malaria control tools in an integrated fashion by residents of Mwea division might have influenced the decreased malaria cases in the district hospital and in the school children. A vigorous campaign emphasizing IMM should be adopted and expanded in Mwea division and in other areas with different eco-epidemiological patterns of malaria transmission. With sustained implementation and support from community members integrated malaria management can reduce malaria significantly in affected communities in Africa

Geographical and environmental approaches to urban malaria in Antananarivo (Madagascar)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies, conducted in the urban of Antananarivo, showed low rate of confirmed malaria cases. We used a geographical and environmental approach to investigate the contribution of environmental factors to urban malaria in Antananarivo.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Remote sensing data were used to locate rice fields, which were considered to be the principal mosquito breeding sites. We carried out supervised classification by the maximum likelihood method. Entomological study allowed vector species determination from collected larval and adult mosquitoes. Mosquito infectivity was studied, to assess the risk of transmission, and the type of mosquito breeding site was determined. Epidemiological data were collected from November 2006 to December 2007, from public health centres, to determine malaria incidence. Polymerase chain reaction was carried out on dried blood spots from patients, to detect cases of malaria. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm malaria cases among febrile school children in a school survey.</p> <p>A geographical information system was constructed for data integration. Altitude, temperature, rainfall, population density and rice field surface area were analysed and the effects of these factors on the occurrence of confirmed malaria cases were studied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Polymerase chain reaction confirmed malaria in 5.1% of the presumed cases. Entomological studies showed <it>An. arabiensis </it>as potential vector. Rice fields remained to be the principal breeding sites. Travel report was considered as related to the occurrence of <it>P. falciparum </it>malaria cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Geographical and environmental factors did not show direct relationship with malaria incidence but they seem ensuring suitability of vector development. Absence of relationship may be due to a lack of statistical power. Despite the presence of <it>An. arabiensis</it>, scarce parasitic reservoir and rapid access to health care do not constitute optimal conditions to a threatening malaria transmission. However, imported malaria case is suggestive to sustain the pocket transmission in Antananarivo.</p