19,132 research outputs found

    In search of a robust inflation forecast

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    It is difficult to consistently improve upon forecasts of inflation based solely on the most recent data on inflation. In this article, we show how to do so. Our main finding is that the most robust forecasts combine information from several different forecasting models, each of which incorporates the information in the available inflation indicators in different ways.Inflation (Finance)

    What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?

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    The recent run-ups in oil and other commodity prices and their implications for inflation and monetary policy have grabbed the attention of many commentators in the media. Clearly, higher prices of food and energy end up in the broadest measures of consumer price inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index. Since the mid-1980s, however, sharp increases and decreases in commodity prices have had little, if any, impact on core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy prices.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Consumer price indexes

    Impurity in a bosonic Josephson junction: swallowtail loops, chaos, self-trapping and the poor man's Dicke model

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    We study a model describing NN identical bosonic atoms trapped in a double-well potential together with a single impurity atom, comparing and contrasting it throughout with the Dicke model. As the boson-impurity coupling strength is varied, there is a symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation which is analogous to the quantum phase transition occurring in the Dicke model. Through stability analysis around the bifurcation point, we show that the critical value of the coupling strength has the same dependence on the parameters as the critical coupling value in the Dicke model. We also show that, like the Dicke model, the mean-field dynamics go from being regular to chaotic above the bifurcation and macroscopic excitations of the bosons are observed. Overall, the boson-impurity system behaves like a poor man's version of the Dicke model.Comment: 17 pages, 16 figure

    Dicke-type phase transition in a multimode optomechanical system

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    We consider the "membrane in the middle" optomechanical model consisting of a laser pumped cavity which is divided in two by a flexible membrane that is partially transmissive to light and subject to radiation pressure. Steady state solutions at the mean-field level reveal that there is a critical strength of the light-membrane coupling above which there is a symmetry breaking bifurcation where the membrane spontaneously acquires a displacement either to the left or the right. This bifurcation bears many of the signatures of a second order phase transition and we compare and contrast it with that found in the Dicke model. In particular, by studying limiting cases and deriving dynamical critical exponents using the fidelity susceptibility method, we argue that the two models share very similar critical behaviour. For example, the obtained critical exponents indicate that they fall within the same universality class. Away from the critical regime we identify, however, some discrepancies between the two models. Our results are discussed in terms of experimentally relevant parameters and we evaluate the prospects for realizing Dicke-type physics in these systems.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

    First-time home buyers and residential investment volatility

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    Like other macroeconomic variables, residential investment has become much less volatile since the mid-1980s (recent experience notwithstanding.) This paper explores the role of structural change in this decline. Since the early 1980s there have been many changes in the underlying structure of the economy, including those in the mortgage market which have made it easier to acquire a home. We examine how these changes affect residential investment volatility in a life-cycle model consistent with micro evidence on housing choices. We find that a decline in the rate of household formation, increased delay in marriage, and an increase in the cross-sectional variance of earnings drive the decline in volatility. Our findings provide support for the view that the “Great Moderation” in aggregate fluctuations is not just due to smaller aggregate shocks, but is driven at least in part by structural change.Home ownership ; Mortgages

    Acquired Elliptocytosis as a Manifestation of Myelodysplastic Syndrome with Ring Sideroblasts and Multilineage Dysplasia.

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    Acquired elliptocytosis is a known but rarely described abnormality in the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Here we report the case of an elderly male who was admitted to the hospital with chest pain, dyspnea, and fatigue and was found to be anemic with an elliptocytosis that had only recently been noted on peripheral smears of his blood. After bone marrow biopsy he was diagnosed with MDS with ring sideroblasts and multilineage dysplasia and acquired elliptocytosis. Here we report a rare case of acquired elliptocytosis cooccurring with MDS with ring sideroblasts and multilineage dysplasia

    Direct stau production at the LHC

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    We investigate the direct production of supersymmetric scalar taus at the LHC. We present the general calculation of the dominant cross section contributions for hadronic stau pair production within the MSSM, taking into account left-right mixing of the stau eigenstates. We find that b-quark annihilation and gluon fusion can enhance the cross sections by more than one order of magnitude with respect to the Drell-Yan predictions. For long-lived staus, we consider CMSSM parameter regions with such enhanced cross sections and possible consequences from recent searches. We find that regions of exceptionally small stau yields, favoured by cosmology, are in tension with a recent CMS limit on m_stau.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Talk given at the workshop "School and Workshops on Elementary Particle Physics and Gravity" September 4-18, 2011 Corfu, Greec

    Rapid Water Reduction to H_2 Catalyzed by a Cobalt Bis(iminopyridine) Complex

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    A cobalt bis(iminopyridine) complex is a highly active electrocatalyst for water reduction, with an estimated apparent second order rate constant k_(app) ≤ 10^7 M^(–1)s^(–1) over a range of buffer/salt concentrations. Scan rate dependence data are consistent with freely diffusing electroactive species over pH 4–9 at room temperature for each of two catalytic reduction events, one of which is believed to be ligand based. Faradaic H_2 yields up to 87 ± 10% measured in constant potential electrolyses (−1.4 V vs SCE) confirm high reactivity and high fidelity in a catalyst supported by the noninnocent bis(iminopyridine) ligand. A mechanism involving initial reduction of Co^(2+) and subsequent protonation is proposed
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