Illusion of Control in a Brownian Game

Both single-player Parrondo games (SPPG) and multi-player Parrondo games (MPPG) display the Parrondo Effect (PE) wherein two or more individually fair (or Llosing) games yield a net winning outcome if alternated periodically or randomly. (There is a more formal, less restrictive definition of the PE.) We illustrate that, when subject to an elementary optimization rule, the PG displays degraded rather than enhanced returns. Optimization provides only the illusion of control, when low-entropy strategies (i.e. which use more information) under-perform random strategies (with maximal entropy). This illusion is unfortuntately widespread in many human attempts to manage or predict complex systems. For the PG, the illusion is especially striking in that the optimization rule reverses an already paradoxical-seeming positive gain - the Parrondo effect proper - and turns it negative. While this phenomenon has been previously demonstrated using somewhat artificial conditions in the MPPG (L. Dinios and J.M.R. Parrondo. Europhysics Letters 63, 319 (2003); J.M.R. Parrondo et al. Advances in Condensed Matter and Statistical Mechanics, eds. E. Korutcheva and R. Cuerno, Nova Science Publishers, 2003), we demonstrate it in the natural setting of a history-dependent SPPG.Comment: 8 page with 1 tabl

The impact of an insider and short-selling on bubble formation in experimental financial market

This study extends the institutional design of the existing literature focusing solely on short selling by introducing an insider who is informed of the dividend distribution and experienced outsiders who gain information via trading experience. Our findings show that introducing short selling and an insider does reduce the bubble duration and size. At the same time, volatility is significantly reduced. Furthermore, the presence of the single insider reduces the large undervaluation and overall turnover in pure short selling treatment and generates small positive bubbles. Once the outsiders gain information via trading experience, there are small positive bubbles with reduced volatility

Response modes and coordination in a traffic context, an experimental comparison of Chinese and German participants

This paper reports results of laboratory experiments about traffic behavior of participants with different cultural backgrounds. We conducted the minority game as an elementary traffic scenario in which human participants of a German and Chinese subject pool had to choose over 100 periods between a road A and a road B. In each period, the road which was chosen by the minority of players won, these participants got a payoff. The payoff in the majority group was 0. An important observation is that the number of road changes of a participant is negatively correlated with her cumulative payoff. The Chinese participants reacted differently to the payoffs of preceding periods than the German participants

The relationship between successional vascular plant assemblages and associated microbial communities on coal mine spoil heaps

The aim of the study was to investigate the relationships between the vascular plant species and the associated soil microbial properties at various stages of vegetation development on unclaimed hard coal mine spoil heaps in Upper Silesia (south Poland). The spontaneous vegetation, soil chemistry as well as the activity and structure of microbial communities were recorded on this specific habitat. The colliery heaps were divided into four age classes and the plant species composition and cover abundance were recorded on established plots (2 m × 2 m). The soil microbial activity under the vegetation patches was assessed using fluorescein diacetate hydrolytic activity (FDHA) and the soil microbial biomass and community composition were determined by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) biomarkers. Total microbial biomass in soils from the older vegetation plots was significantly higher than those in soils from the younger plots. In all studied samples, microbial communities consisted primarily of bacteria with the dominance of Gram negative bacteria over Gram positive and aerobic microorganisms were more dominant than anaerobic ones. Statistical analysis revealed a correlation between the type of vegetation and microbial community structure

Vegetation diversity on coal mine spoil heaps-how important is the texture of the soil substrate?

© 2019, The Author(s). The relationship between the size of the particle fractions of the soil substrate and the diversity of the spontaneously developing vegetation was investigated on coal mine spoil heaps in Upper Silesia (Southern Poland). The analyses were based on 2567 research plots of developed spontaneous vegetation and their associated soil substrate samples collected from 112 coal mine spoil heaps. For each research plot the prevailing particle size fraction was determined (stones, gravel, sand, silt), the species composition and abundance was recorded and the species richness (S), Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H′), Simpson (C) and Evenness (E) indices were used to determine species diversity. From a total of 119 research plots (in all particle size fraction categories), the values of 15 physicochemical properties (pH, electrical conductivity, water holding capacity, moisture, carbon content, total N, available P, Mg and exchange cations Ca, Mg, K, Na, fine particles (%), gravel (%), stone (%)) were obtained to asses their impact on the floristic composition of vegetation patches using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Additionally, functional traits of the dominant species of each vegetation patch (life forms, life strategies and socio-ecological groups), were selected to analyse their relation to substrate texture. It was shown that the highest species richness and the highest values for Shannon-Wiener diversity index, as well as Simpson and Evenness indices, were obtained in plots formed on stones. Moreover, the greatest variation in the participation of species representing different habitats, life forms, and life strategies was found on gravelly substrates. Contrary to our expectations, the vegetation diversity (in terms of both species and their functional traits) was not highest in habitats with a high composition of fine size particles.Published versio

Wild animal and zoonotic disease risk management and regulation in China : examining gaps and One Health opportunities in scope, mandates, and monitoring systems

Emerging diseases of zoonotic origin such as COVID-19 are a continuing public health threat in China that lead to a significant socioeconomic burden. This study reviewed the current laws and regulations, government reports and policy documents, and existing literature on zoonotic disease preparedness and prevention across the forestry, agriculture, and public health authorities in China, to articulate the current landscape of potential risks, existing mandates, and gaps. A total of 55 known zoonotic diseases (59 pathogens) are routinely monitored under a multi-sectoral system among humans and domestic and wild animals in China. These diseases have been detected in wild mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish or other aquatic animals, the majority of which are transmitted between humans and animals via direct or indirect contact and vectors. However, this current monitoring system covers a limited scope of disease threats and animal host species, warranting expanded review for sources of disease and pathogen with zoonotic potential. In addition, the governance of wild animal protection and utilization and limited knowledge about wild animal trade value chains present challenges for zoonotic disease risk assessment and monitoring, and affect the completeness of mandates and enforcement. A coordinated and collaborative mechanism among different departments is required for the effective monitoring and management of disease emergence and transmission risks in the animal value chains. Moreover, pathogen surveillance among wild animal hosts and human populations outside of the routine monitoring system will fill the data gaps and improve our understanding of future emerging zoonotic threats to achieve disease prevention. The findings and recommendations will advance One Health collaboration across government and non-government stakeholders to optimize monitoring and surveillance, risk management, and emergency responses to known and novel zoonotic threats, and support COVID-19 recovery efforts

Author correction : a global database for metacommunity ecology, integrating species, traits, environment and space

Correction to: Scientific Data https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0344-7, published online 08 January 202

Author correction : a global database for metacommunity ecology, integrating species, traits, environment and space

Correction to: Scientific Data https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0344-7, published online 08 January 202

Simulating complex social behaviour with the genetic action tree kernel

The concept of genetic action trees combines action trees with genetic algorithms. In this paper, we create a multi-agent simulation on the base of this concept and provide the interested reader with a software package to apply genetic action trees in a multi-agent simulation to simulate complex social behaviour. An example model is introduced to conduct a feasibility study with the described method. We find that our library can be used to simulate the behaviour of agents in a complex setting and observe a convergence to a global optimum in spite of the absence of stable states

Moderators, Mediators, and Other Predictors of Risperidone Response in Children with Autistic Disorder and Irritability

Objective/Background: The National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Research Units on Pediatric Psychopharmacology (RUPP) Autism Network found an effect size of d = 1.2 in favor of risperidone on the main outcome measure in an 8-week double-blind, placebo-controlled trial for irritabilityin autistic disorder. This paper explores moderators and mediators of this effect. Method: Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses were conducted with suspected moderators and mediators entered into the regression equations. MacArthur Foundation Network subgroup guidelines were followed in the evaluation of the results. Results: Only baseline severity moderated treatment response: Higher severity showed greater improvement for risperidone but not for placebo. Weight gain mediated treatment response negatively: Those who gained more weight improved less with risperidone and more with placebo. Compliance correlated with outcome for risperidone but not placebo. Higher dose correlated with worse outcome for placebo, but not risperidone. Of nonspecific predictors, parent education, family income, and low baseline prolactin positively predicted outcome; anxiety, bipolar symptoms, oppositional-defiant symptoms, stereotypy, and hyperactivity negatively predicted outcome. Risperidone moderated the effect of change in 5'-nucleotidase, a marker of zinc status, for which decrease was associated with improvement only with risperidone, not with placebo. Conclusion: The benefit–risk ratio of risperidone is better with greater symptom severity. Risperidone can be individually titrated to optimal dosage for excellent response in the majority of children. Weight gain is not necessary for risperidone benefit and may even detract from it. Socioeconomic advantage, low prolactin, and absence of co-morbid problems non-specifically predict better outcome. Mineral interactions with risperidone deserve further study