Ethiopia’s Investment Prospects: A Sectoral Overview*

Ethiopia is in the midst of a sustained growth surge that is becoming increasingly broadbased, building on major improvements in educational attainment, improved health outcomes, and infrastructure capacity in terms of access to power, transportation and telecommunications. The Government’s Growth and Transformation Plan sets ambitious targets for further improvements in these areas, together with significant reforms aiming to improve trade logistics, by rolling-out the authorized economic operator program across export-oriented industry parks and improving the main export corridor to Djibouti. This industrialization push coincides with global trends that provide Ethiopia an opportunity to integrate its economy into the modern “Made in the World” production system, including by attracting labor-intensive production, which is leaving China and other East Asian economies due to their rising wage rates. This paper considers Ethiopia’s prospects to succeed in this endeavor. It reviews overall economic management and performance indicators and provides a horizontal overview of the investment framework. It then summarizes the investment prospects in several major sectors of the economy, in light of Ethiopia’s emerging capacities and global developments: agriculture, mining, oil & gas, economic infrastructure, manufacturing, and selected services, including health and tourism. Keywords: Ethiopia, investment, growth and transformation pla

Financing Ethiopia’s Development: Confronting the Gap between Ambition and Means

Ethiopia set out – and in large measure achieved – a very ambitious program of economic and social development under its Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP-I).The scale of public sector involvement was very large: for the five-year Plan period, it called for budgetary government spending and public enterprise off-budget spending of 41% of GDP, more than half of which was to come from budgetary resources. As Ethiopia prepares for the second version of its GTP (GTP-II), it must confront a fiscal numbers problem: Ethiopia’s tax share of GDP under GTP-I reached only the 12%-13%level, and revenue flows from official international assistance are shrinking. This paper dissects the financing challenge that Ethiopia must meet to achieve its goal of becoming a middle income country. It concludes that only export-led manufacturing in a context of a major expansion of the number of active formal enterprises coupled with best practice performance in all other areas related to revenue generation will square the circle of Ethiopia’s development financing challenge.Keywords: Ethiopia, Development Financing, Resource Mobilization, Tax, Private Sector Developmen

The Reimposition of Capital Punishment in New Jersey: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion

After Furman v. Georgia held that state statutes that allow for the imposition of the death penalty in an arbitrary and capricious manner violate the Constitution, the states were forced to rewrite their capital punishment statutes. New Jersey adopted a new statute in 1982. Despite the attempt of the New Jersey legislature to comply with the mandate of Furman, application of the statute has resulted in clear and significant discrepancies in the treatment of potentially capital defendants based on the race of the victim, the county of jurisdiction, and the race of the defendant. This article details a large study of all homicide defendants (other than those charged with vehicular manslaughter) where the death occurred after the effective date of the New Jersey statute. To determine whether the imposition of death was unconstitutionally arbitrary, the study examined both legal and extralegal factors that might predict whether the defendant would be sentenced to death. Unlike many previous studies reviewed by the article, which only compared defendants charged with crimes punishable by death, this study looked at the entire pool of potential homicide defendants. By separating case processing into discrete stages, the study shows the enormous role that prosecutorial discretion plays in determining whether a defendant receives a death sentence. While the facts of the case would have allowed the prosecutor to seek the death penalty in 404 cases, only 94 of those cases were brought to capital trial. This system of selecting defendants for capital prosecution has constitutional implications

Estimation in a Competing Risks Proportional Hazards Model Under Length-biased Sampling With Censoring

International audienceWhat population does the sample represent? The answer to this question is of crucial importance when estimating a survivor function in duration studies. As is well-known, in a stationary population, survival data obtained from a cross-sectional sample taken from the population at time $t_0$ represents not the target density $f(t)$ but its length-biased version proportional to $tf(t)$, for $t>0$. The problem of estimating survivor function from such length-biased samples becomes more complex, and interesting, in presence of competing risks and censoring. This paper lays out a sampling scheme related to a mixed Poisson process and develops nonparametric estimators of the survivor function of the target population assuming that the two independent competing risks have proportional hazards. Two cases are considered: with and without independent consoring before length biased sampling. In each case, the weak convergence of the process generated by the proposed estimator is proved. A well-known study of the duration in power for political leaders is used to illustrate our results. Finally, a simulation study is carried out in order to assess the finite sample behaviour of our estimators