Uncertainty and Reasonable Assurance: Why We Need to Teach Regulators to Focus on Uncertainty in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

The rationality of regulatory decisions is inextricably linked to an explicit representation of the uncertainty underlying scientific predictions. The level of coverage of uncertainty in training programs on risk assessment and risk management developed by the EPA is examined in light of the above thesis. Using the EPA's Office Of Drinking Water's Workshops on Assessment and Management of Drinking Water Contamination (EPA, 1988) as an example, concepts for formalizing consideration of uncertainty are presented. A case study on the risks from radon in drinking water is developed to illustrate the recommended level of coverage of uncertainty in EPA training programs.Master of Science in Public Healt

Evaluation of a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial of a Package of Community-Based Maternal and Newborn Interventions in Mirzapur, Bangladesh

To evaluate a delivery strategy for newborn interventions in rural Bangladesh.A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Mirzapur, Bangladesh. Twelve unions were randomized to intervention or comparison arm. All women of reproductive age were eligible to participate. In the intervention arm, community health workers identified pregnant women; made two antenatal home visits to promote birth and newborn care preparedness; made four postnatal home visits to negotiate preventive care practices and to assess newborns for illness; and referred sick neonates to a hospital and facilitated compliance. Primary outcome measures were antenatal and immediate newborn care behaviours, knowledge of danger signs, care seeking for neonatal complications, and neonatal mortality.A total of 4616 and 5241 live births were recorded from 9987 and 11153 participants in the intervention and comparison arm, respectively. High coverage of antenatal (91% visited twice) and postnatal (69% visited on days 0 or 1) home visitations was achieved. Indicators of care practices and knowledge of maternal and neonatal danger signs improved. Adjusted mortality hazard ratio in the intervention arm, compared to the comparison arm, was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.80-1.30) at baseline and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.68-1.12) at endline. Primary causes of death were birth asphyxia (49%) and prematurity (26%). No adverse events associated with interventions were reported.Lack of evidence for mortality impact despite high program coverage and quality assurance of implementation, and improvements in targeted newborn care practices suggests the intervention did not adequately address risk factors for mortality. The level and cause-structure of neonatal mortality in the local population must be considered in developing interventions. Programs must ensure skilled care during childbirth, including management of birth asphyxia and prematurity, and curative postnatal care during the first two days of life, in addition to essential newborn care and infection prevention and management.Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00198627

Bayesian approach to determining penetrance of pathogenic SDH variants.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, determining penetrance required large observational cohort studies. Data from the Exome Aggregate Consortium (ExAC) allows a Bayesian approach to calculate penetrance, in that population frequencies of pathogenic germline variants should be inversely proportional to their penetrance for disease. We tested this hypothesis using data from two cohorts for succinate dehydrogenase subunits A, B and C (SDHA-C) genetic variants associated with hereditary pheochromocytoma/paraganglioma (PC/PGL). METHODS: Two cohorts were 575 unrelated Australian subjects and 1240 unrelated UK subjects, respectively, with PC/PGL in whom genetic testing had been performed. Penetrance of pathogenic SDHA-C variants was calculated by comparing allelic frequencies in cases versus controls from ExAC (removing those variants contributed by The Cancer Genome Atlas). RESULTS: Pathogenic SDHA-C variants were identified in 106 subjects (18.4%) in cohort 1 and 317 subjects (25.6%) in cohort 2. Of 94 different pathogenic variants from both cohorts (seven in SDHA, 75 in SDHB and 12 in SDHC), 13 are reported in ExAC (two in SDHA, nine in SDHB and two in SDHC) accounting for 21% of subjects with SDHA-C variants. Combining data from both cohorts, estimated lifetime disease penetrance was 22.0% (95% CI 15.2% to 30.9%) for SDHB variants, 8.3% (95% CI 3.5% to 18.5%) for SDHC variants and 1.7% (95% CI 0.8% to 3.8%) for SDHA variants. CONCLUSION: Pathogenic variants in SDHB are more penetrant than those in SDHC and SDHA. Our findings have important implications for counselling and surveillance of subjects carrying these pathogenic variants

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

A Scalable System for Production of Functional Pancreatic Progenitors from Human Embryonic Stem Cells

Development of a human embryonic stem cell (hESC)-based therapy for type 1 diabetes will require the translation of proof-of-principle concepts into a scalable, controlled, and regulated cell manufacturing process. We have previously demonstrated that hESC can be directed to differentiate into pancreatic progenitors that mature into functional glucose-responsive, insulin-secreting cells in vivo. In this study we describe hESC expansion and banking methods and a suspension-based differentiation system, which together underpin an integrated scalable manufacturing process for producing pancreatic progenitors. This system has been optimized for the CyT49 cell line. Accordingly, qualified large-scale single-cell master and working cGMP cell banks of CyT49 have been generated to provide a virtually unlimited starting resource for manufacturing. Upon thaw from these banks, we expanded CyT49 for two weeks in an adherent culture format that achieves 50–100 fold expansion per week. Undifferentiated CyT49 were then aggregated into clusters in dynamic rotational suspension culture, followed by differentiation en masse for two weeks with a four-stage protocol. Numerous scaled differentiation runs generated reproducible and defined population compositions highly enriched for pancreatic cell lineages, as shown by examining mRNA expression at each stage of differentiation and flow cytometry of the final population. Islet-like tissue containing glucose-responsive, insulin-secreting cells was generated upon implantation into mice. By four- to five-months post-engraftment, mature neo-pancreatic tissue was sufficient to protect against streptozotocin (STZ)-induced hyperglycemia. In summary, we have developed a tractable manufacturing process for the generation of functional pancreatic progenitors from hESC on a scale amenable to clinical entry

Justify your alpha

Benjamin et al. proposed changing the conventional “statistical significance” threshold (i.e.,the alpha level) from p ≤ .05 to p ≤ .005 for all novel claims with relatively low prior odds. They provided two arguments for why lowering the significance threshold would “immediately improve the reproducibility of scientific research.” First, a p-value near .05provides weak evidence for the alternative hypothesis. Second, under certain assumptions, an alpha of .05 leads to high false positive report probabilities (FPRP2 ; the probability that a significant finding is a false positive

Clinical Utility of Random Anti–Tumor Necrosis Factor Drug–Level Testing and Measurement of Antidrug Antibodies on the Long-Term Treatment Response in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective: To investigate whether antidrug antibodies and/or drug non-trough levels predict the long-term treatment response in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with adalimumab or etanercept and to identify factors influencing antidrug antibody and drug levels to optimize future treatment decisions.  Methods: A total of 331 patients from an observational prospective cohort were selected (160 patients treated with adalimumab and 171 treated with etanercept). Antidrug antibody levels were measured by radioimmunoassay, and drug levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 835 serial serum samples obtained 3, 6, and 12 months after initiation of therapy. The association between antidrug antibodies and drug non-trough levels and the treatment response (change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints) was evaluated.  Results: Among patients who completed 12 months of followup, antidrug antibodies were detected in 24.8% of those receiving adalimumab (31 of 125) and in none of those receiving etanercept. At 3 months, antidrug antibody formation and low adalimumab levels were significant predictors of no response according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria at 12 months (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.57, 0.85]). Antidrug antibody–positive patients received lower median dosages of methotrexate compared with antidrug antibody–negative patients (15 mg/week versus 20 mg/week; P = 0.01) and had a longer disease duration (14.0 versus 7.7 years; P = 0.03). The adalimumab level was the best predictor of change in the DAS28 at 12 months, after adjustment for confounders (regression coefficient 0.060 [95% CI 0.015, 0.10], P = 0.009). Etanercept levels were associated with the EULAR response at 12 months (regression coefficient 0.088 [95% CI 0.019, 0.16], P = 0.012); however, this difference was not significant after adjustment. A body mass index of ≥30 kg/m2 and poor adherence were associated with lower drug levels.  Conclusion: Pharmacologic testing in anti–tumor necrosis factor–treated patients is clinically useful even in the absence of trough levels. At 3 months, antidrug antibodies and low adalimumab levels are significant predictors of no response according to the EULAR criteria at 12 months

Homologous recombination DNA repair defects in PALB2- associated breast cancers

Abstract: Mono-allelic germline pathogenic variants in the Partner And Localizer of BRCA2 (PALB2) gene predispose to a high-risk of breast cancer development, consistent with the role of PALB2 in homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair. Here, we sought to define the repertoire of somatic genetic alterations in PALB2-associated breast cancers (BCs), and whether PALB2-associated BCs display bi-allelic inactivation of PALB2 and/or genomic features of HR-deficiency (HRD). Twenty-four breast cancer patients with pathogenic PALB2 germline mutations were analyzed by whole-exome sequencing (WES, n = 16) or targeted capture massively parallel sequencing (410 cancer genes, n = 8). Somatic genetic alterations, loss of heterozygosity (LOH) of the PALB2 wild-type allele, large-scale state transitions (LSTs) and mutational signatures were defined. PALB2-associated BCs were found to be heterogeneous at the genetic level, with PIK3CA (29%), PALB2 (21%), TP53 (21%), and NOTCH3 (17%) being the genes most frequently affected by somatic mutations. Bi-allelic PALB2 inactivation was found in 16 of the 24 cases (67%), either through LOH (n = 11) or second somatic mutations (n = 5) of the wild-type allele. High LST scores were found in all 12 PALB2-associated BCs with bi-allelic PALB2 inactivation sequenced by WES, of which eight displayed the HRD-related mutational signature 3. In addition, bi-allelic inactivation of PALB2 was significantly associated with high LST scores. Our findings suggest that the identification of bi-allelic PALB2 inactivation in PALB2-associated BCs is required for the personalization of HR-directed therapies, such as platinum salts and/or PARP inhibitors, as the vast majority of PALB2-associated BCs without PALB2 bi-allelic inactivation lack genomic features of HRD

Screening ethnically diverse human embryonic stem cells identifies a chromosome 20 minimal amplicon conferring growth advantage

The International Stem Cell Initiative analyzed 125 human embryonic stem (ES) cell lines and 11 induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell lines, from 38 laboratories worldwide, for genetic changes occurring during culture. Most lines were analyzed at an early and late passage. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis revealed that they included representatives of most major ethnic groups. Most lines remained karyotypically normal, but there was a progressive tendency to acquire changes on prolonged culture, commonly affecting chromosomes 1, 12, 17 and 20. DNA methylation patterns changed haphazardly with no link to time in culture. Structural variants, determined from the SNP arrays, also appeared sporadically. No common variants related to culture were observed on chromosomes 1, 12 and 17, but a minimal amplicon in chromosome 20q11.21, including three genes expressed in human ES cells, ID1, BCL2L1 and HM13, occurred in >20% of the lines. Of these genes, BCL2L1 is a strong candidate for driving culture adaptation of ES cells