Assessing the Potential Strength of a Bank Capital Channel in Europe: A Principal Component Analysis

The asymmetric impact of the recent financial crisis on the European countries' real activity raised the question of the heterogeneity of the transmission channels of shocks in the euro area. In this article, we suggest an assessment of this heterogeneity based on the banks' capital channel (BCC). To this end, we follow an original and global perspective, studying the combination of several key indicators through a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Based on data collected before the beginning of the crisis, the analysis identifies Germany and Italy as the European economies a priori the most exposed to a financial shock passing through the BCC, while Finland, France or Spain would be the least exposed. The comparison of these a priori results to the post-crisis economic performance of the largest European countries supports the idea of a heterogeneous bank capital channel inside the union.

The Impact of Financial Markets Globalization on Companies Capital Structure

Insuring the assets financing was a permanent concern in the companies. The aim of the financing policy was to identify the most profitable financing sources for the company, at the lowest cost possible and correlated in time with the need of resources. The modelling of the cost of capital, as well as that of the optimal combination of various financing sources in order to obtain a cost of capital able to lead to maximizing the companies value, especially in the conditions of a durable financing are permanent challenges for scientific research. The capital structure of the companies is determined by a wide range of quantitative and qualitative factors, which can be divided in two classes: on one side, factors independents on companies decisions (the stability of the economy, the fiscal system, the monetary and capital markets), and on the other side internal factors (the size of the company, the profitability, the percent of tangible assets in total assets etc.). The accessibility of the financing sources is in present influenced by the characteristics of the credit and capital markets are characterized in present by complex phenomena such as the globalization and the adhesion of certain countries to European Union.globalization, capital structure, financial markets, fiscal system, cost of capital.

Monetary policy transmission asymmetries in a heterogeneous monetary union: a simple contractual solution

In this paper, we show that imposing linear penalties on inflation and income divergences to a common central bank could be an interesting solution to stabilization problems in a heterogeneous monetary Union. We find an “optimal contract†for monetary policy which enforces the optimal solution for maximizing Union-wide welfare. This contract may provide a good institutional response to stabilization problems raised by monetary policy transmission asymmetries, as described in De Grauwe & Senegas (2004).

Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro

Cet article propose une analyse descriptive des données macroéconomiques dans la zone euro et une étude de la transmission des politiques monétaire et budgétaire à travers une analyse SVAR. Les résultats suggèrent que, depuis la création de la zone euro, la politique monétaire a joué un rôle important aussi bien pour la stabilisation de l’inflation et de l’activité réelle, en ayant un comportement contracyclique soutenu. Au niveau agrégé, la politique budgétaire semble aussi avoir favorisé la stabilisation de l’activité réelle par des actions contracycliques (surtout après 2003). Cependant, des divergences importantes apparaissent au niveau national, mettant en cause l’efficacité de la gestion budgétaire dans l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM). L’étude de la transmission des différents chocs à l’intérieur de la zone confirme l’idée d’une certaine complémentarité entre politique monétaire commune et politiques budgétaires nationales. Elle met aussi en exergue l’hétérogénéité de la transmission des chocs au niveau national, preuve de la présence d’asymétries structurelles qui persistent dans cette région.This paper provides a descriptive analysis of macroeconomic data in the euro area and uses a SVAR approach to study the transmission of the fiscal and monetary policy in this region. The results suggest that the monetary policy has played an important role since 2000, both for the inflation and output stabilization, having a sustained counter-cyclical behavior in the euro area. If, at aggregate level, the fiscal policy also appears to have supported the output stabilization (especially after 2003), significant differences appear at the national level, casting doubt on the effectiveness of budgetary policy design in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The study on the transmission of shocks within the area confirms, in a certain extent, the complementary actions of the monetary policy and of the national fiscal policies. It also underlines the heterogeneity of the transmission of shocks at the national level, which is a proof of still persistent structural asymmetries in this area

Macroeconomic policies and national divergences in the euro area

Après dix ans de monnaie commune, les disparités régionales persistent dans la zone euro et l’activité économique a du mal à se dynamiser. Le dysfonctionnement du système de politique économique figure parmi les explications possibles de ces évolutions. Cette thèse reconsidère la conduite des politiques macroéconomiques dans une Union hétérogène, avec transmission asymétrique des chocs. Trois essais de modélisation sont développés dans ce but. Le premier étudie la politique monétaire dans un modèle à la Barro-Gordon, à l’aide d’un jeu défini entre la banque centrale et les différents agents de l’Union. Le second introduit l’interaction entre politique monétaire et budgétaire dans l’Union, afin d’assurer un environnement stable, favorable à l’activité économique. Il se situe dans un cadre néo-keynésien, modifié pour inclure certains aspects des pratiques monétaires et budgétaires de la zone euro. Enfin, un troisième essai analyse le rôle de ces politiques dans la stabilisation des chocs conjoncturels, à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE) avec asymétries financières. Les enseignements vont dans une direction commune. Une politique monétaire orientée vers la réduction des divergences nationales serait bénéfique pour l’Union, uniquement si la banque centrale est hostile simultanément aux divergences d’inflation et de revenu. L’intérêt de la banque centrale pour les seules divergences d’inflation peut être contreproductif. Les politiques nationales restent les principaux outils pour réduire les disparités. Leur conduite doit se faire dans un cadre coordonné, qui tient compte des asymétries structurelles dans l’Union. Ce serait compatible avec la conduite autonome des politiques budgétaires, suivant une stratégie commune pour la zone. L’annonce publique des règles budgétaires nationales permettrait d’améliorer la transparence des politiques et d’accroître leur efficacité.After ten years of using the common currency, national divergences in the euro area are persistent and the economic growth is slower than expected. This manuscript is focusing on the use of inappropriate economic policies as potential reason for such empirical facts. It tries to reconsider the monetary and fiscal policy definition in a heterogeneous monetary union, with asymmetric monetary transmission. Three different models were developed in this work. The first one studies the monetary policy in a Barro-Gordon traditional framework, by using a game among the central bank and the different agents of the Union. The second model appeals to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, in order to guarantee stable economic conditions. It proposes a dynamic analysis of an asymmetric monetary Union, in a neo-keynesian framework, modified to take into account an interest rate rule for the monetary policy. The last model analyzes the importance of the previously mentioned policies for stabilizing shocks, using a DSGE model. The overall conclusions suggest that a monetary policy oriented to the reduction of the national divergences would be beneficial for the Union only if the central bank is simultaneously adverse to inflation and output divergences. If the central bank is only concerned by inflation divergences, and disregards the output differentials, the monetary policy could be counterproductive. The national policies are the main means of reducing asymmetries. They should be rigorously conducted, and must take into account the structural asymmetries in the Union. The public announcement of the national fiscal rules could be a solution for increasing the policies’ transparency and for improving their efficiency

Fiscal Policy and the Cost of External Finance to Firms

This study has two objectives. First, it analyzes the influence of corporate income taxes on the cost of external finance to firms in imperfect financial markets, and second, it evaluates the transmission of monetary and tax shocks in this framework. A model is proposed providing evidence on two opposite effects of corporate tax on a firm's external financing cost: a positive effect is induced by the traditional tax shield channel, while a negative effect comes from the firm's balance sheet channel. The dominance of one of these effects depends on firms' financial health. In a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the presence of taxes amplifies the macroeconomic reaction of the real variables to monetary shocks, thus amplifying the financial accelerator role of the firm's balance sheet. As in the case of monetary shocks, the balance sheet channel acts equally in the model as an accelerator for the transmission of tax shocks.corporate tax, external finance premium, financial accelerator, imperfect credit market, investment decision of firms,

Politiques macroéconomiques et disparités régionales dans la zone Euro

After ten years of using the common currency, national divergences in the euro area are persistent and the economic growth is slower than expected. This manuscript is focusing on the use of inappropriate economic policies as potential reason for such empirical facts. It tries to reconsider the monetary and fiscal policy definition in a heterogeneous monetary union, with asymmetric monetary transmission. Three different models were developed in this work. The first one studies the monetary policy in a Barro-Gordon traditional framework, by using a game among the central bank and the different agents of the Union. The second model appeals to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, in order to guarantee stable economic conditions. It proposes a dynamic analysis of an asymmetric monetary Union, in a neo-keynesian framework, modified to take into account an interest rate rule for the monetary policy. The last model analyzes the importance of the previously mentioned policies for stabilizing shocks, using a DSGE model. The overall conclusions suggest that a monetary policy oriented to the reduction of the national divergences would be beneficial for the Union only if the central bank is simultaneously adverse to inflation and output divergences. If the central bank is only concerned by inflation divergences, and disregards the output differentials, the monetary policy could be counterproductive. The national policies are the main means of reducing asymmetries. They should be rigorously conducted, and must take into account the structural asymmetries in the Union. The public announcement of the national fiscal rules could be a solution for increasing the policies’ transparency and for improving their efficiency.Après dix ans de monnaie commune, les disparités régionales persistent dans la zone euro et l’activité économique a du mal à se dynamiser. Le dysfonctionnement du système de politique économique figure parmi les explications possibles de ces évolutions. Cette thèse reconsidère la conduite des politiques macroéconomiques dans une Union hétérogène, avec transmission asymétrique des chocs. Trois essais de modélisation sont développés dans ce but. Le premier étudie la politique monétaire dans un modèle à la Barro-Gordon, à l’aide d’un jeu défini entre la banque centrale et les différents agents de l’Union. Le second introduit l’interaction entre politique monétaire et budgétaire dans l’Union, afin d’assurer un environnement stable, favorable à l’activité économique. Il se situe dans un cadre néo-keynésien, modifié pour inclure certains aspects des pratiques monétaires et budgétaires de la zone euro. Enfin, un troisième essai analyse le rôle de ces politiques dans la stabilisation des chocs conjoncturels, à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE) avec asymétries financières. Les enseignements vont dans une direction commune. Une politique monétaire orientée vers la réduction des divergences nationales serait bénéfique pour l’Union, uniquement si la banque centrale est hostile simultanément aux divergences d’inflation et de revenu. L’intérêt de la banque centrale pour les seules divergences d’inflation peut être contreproductif. Les politiques nationales restent les principaux outils pour réduire les disparités. Leur conduite doit se faire dans un cadre coordonné, qui tient compte des asymétries structurelles dans l’Union. Ce serait compatible avec la conduite autonome des politiques budgétaires, suivant une stratégie commune pour la zone. L’annonce publique des règles budgétaires nationales permettrait d’améliorer la transparence des politiques et d’accroître leur efficacité

Taylor Rule in a Policy-Mix Analysis for Open Heterogeneous Monetary Unions

The paper studies, at a purely theoretical level, the monetary-fiscal policy-mix in an open currency union with asymmetric monetary transmission, where the central bank follows an interest rate Taylor rule. It shows that under the optimal monetary policy regime, the fiscal policy can stimulate the output without any impact on inflation. However, if the monetary rule deviates from the optimum, a stabilization bias appears. It can be reduced by a tighter monetary policy, but the heterogeneous monetary transmission produces asymmetric national reactions to shocks. For asymmetric fiscal shocks, output divergences can increase permanently and only a union-wide fiscal strategy accounting for national structural asymmetries can avoid them.