47 research outputs found
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Challenges to the Future of European Single Market in Natural Gas
Recent gas price dynamics in Europe shows convergence to the extent that locational price differentials approached transport tariffs and hence arbitrage was largely saturated â it is a sign of a well-functioning pan-European gas wholesale market. We employ a transaction cost economics framework to understand how we got to where we are in terms of the evolution of the gas industry structure in Europe and its institutional setup. The move towards a single market in gas, which is still ongoing, has allowed European gas consumers to benefit from transparently set, market-based wholesale prices as well as from increased market competition between suppliers. However, as the gas market in Europe matures and with the increased penetration of renewable energy generation in the electricity sector as well as overall decarbonization of the energy sector in Europe, the gas market and its current regulatory regime face a number of challenges. Addressing these challenges may require an update to the current market design and possibly drastic reforms to tariff setting in the gas transport market
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The Cost of Improving Gas Supply Security in the Baltic States
The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) are three amongst the smallest gas markets in Europe. They import all the gas they consume from Russia, with whom they have difficult political relationships. A disruption of their supply from Russia, whatever the cause, would have severe consequences as a large share of their peak winter consumption could not be replaced by alternative gas or other fuels. The three governments want to invest in improving gas supply security and the European Commission pushes in the same direction. But what should they do? We present an assessment of the cost of various national and regional options â dual-fuel for heat plants and CHPs; strategic gas storage; strategic LNG terminals â to increase gas supply security. The cost is calculated over thirty years for different scenarios of supply disruptions. Uncertainty in commodity prices and interest rates is taken into account through Monte Carlo simulations. We draw the policy conclusions, taking into account the regional political context
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A Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch Model of the GB Electricity Market â Formulation and Application to Hydro Pumped Storage
We present a well calibrated unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the GB electricity market and applied it to the economic analysis of the four existing hydro pumped storage (PS) stations in GB. We found that with more wind on the system PS arbitrage revenue increases: with every percentage point (p.p) increase in wind capacity the total PS arbitrage profit increases by 0.21 p.p.. However, under a range of wind capacity, the PSâ modelled revenue from price arbitrage is not enough to cover their ongoing fixed costs. Analysing the 2015-18 GB balancing and ancillary services data suggests that PS stations were not active in managing transmission constraints and in fact about 60% of constraint payments went to gas-fired units. However, the PS stations are active in provision of ancillary services such as fast reserve, response and other reserve services with a combined market share of at least 30% in 2018. Stacking up the modelled revenue from price arbitrage with the 2018 balancing and ancillary services revenues against the ongoing fixed costs suggests that the four existing PS stations are profitable. Most of the revenue comes from balancing and ancillary services markets â about 75% â whereas only 25% comes from price arbitrage. However, the revenues will not be enough to cover capex and opex of a new 600 MW PS station. The gap in financing will have to come from balancing and ancillary services market opportunities and less so from purely price arbitrage. Finally, we found that the marginal contribution of most of the existing PS stations to gas and coal plant profitability is negative, while from the system point of view, PS stations do contribute to minimizing the total operating cost
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Market power and long-term gas contracts: the case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets
We explore a major European competition decision, the 2012-18 Gazprom case, using a global gas market simulation model. We find that access to LNG markets alone is insufficient to counterbalance Gazpromâs strategic behaviour; central and eastern Europe (CEE) needs to be well interconnected with bidirectional flow capability. âSwap dealsâ created by the decision facilitate CEE market integration, while limiting Gazpromâs potential market power. Such deals may increase the diversity of contracted gas and number of market players, but do not improve physical supply diversity. In the next five years, swap deals could marginally impact negatively the utilization of strategic assets in CEE, but since Gazpromâs commitments expire by mid-2026, utilization of these strategic assets may fall considerably, especially if Gazprom withholds supplies. As an unintended consequence, CEE markets may disintegrate from the rest of Europe. Avoiding such outcomes will require further gas market reforms, particularly, market design for gas transportation
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A Portfolio approach to wind and solar deployment in Australia
We develop a new framework that can be used to analyse interactions between solar and wind generation using a Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory (MPT) framework. We use this framework to understand the role of electricity transmission integrating a high shar
The case of 100% electrification of domestic heat in Great Britain
Unlike power sector decarbonisation, there has been little progress made on heat, which is currently the biggest energy consumer in the UK, accounting for 45% of total energy consumption in 2019, and almost 40% of UK GHG emissions. Given the UKâs legally binding commitment to "Net-Zero" by 2050, decarbonising heat is becoming urgent and currently one of the main pathways involves its electrification. Here, we present a spatially-explicit optimisation model that investigates the implications of electrifying heat on the operation of the power sector. Using hourly historical gas demand data, we conclude that the domestic peak heat demand is almost 50% lower than widely-cited values. A 100% electrification pathway can be achieved with only a 1.3-fold increase in generation capacity compared to a power-only decarbonisation scenario, but only, by leveraging the role of thermal energy storage technologies without which a further 40% increase would be needed
Mutations in KEOPS-Complex Genes Cause Nephrotic Syndrome with Primary Microcephaly
Galloway-Mowat syndrome (GAMOS) is an autosomal-recessive disease characterized by the combination of early-onset nephrotic syndrome (SRNS) and microcephaly with brain anomalies. Here we identified recessive mutations in OSGEP, TP53RK, TPRKB, and LAGE3, genes encoding the four subunits of the KEOPS complex, in 37 individuals from 32 families with GAMOS. CRISPR-Cas9 knockout in zebrafish and mice recapitulated the human phenotype of primary microcephaly and resulted in early lethality. Knockdown of OSGEP, TP53RK, or TPRKB inhibited cell proliferation, which human mutations did not rescue. Furthermore, knockdown of these genes impaired protein translation, caused endoplasmic reticulum stress, activated DNA-damage-response signaling, and ultimately induced apoptosis. Knockdown of OSGEP or TP53RK induced defects in the actin cytoskeleton and decreased the migration rate of human podocytes, an established intermediate phenotype of SRNS. We thus identified four new monogenic causes of GAMOS, describe a link between KEOPS function and human disease, and delineate potential pathogenic mechanisms
Shared genetic risk between eating disorder- and substance-use-related phenotypes:Evidence from genome-wide association studies
First published: 16 February 202
A large-scale genome-wide association study meta-analysis of cannabis use disorder
Summary Background Variation in liability to cannabis use disorder has a strong genetic component (estimated twin and family heritability about 50â70%) and is associated with negative outcomes, including increased risk of psychopathology. The aim of the study was to conduct a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify novel genetic variants associated with cannabis use disorder. Methods To conduct this GWAS meta-analysis of cannabis use disorder and identify associations with genetic loci, we used samples from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Substance Use Disorders working group, iPSYCH, and deCODE (20â916 case samples, 363â116 control samples in total), contrasting cannabis use disorder cases with controls. To examine the genetic overlap between cannabis use disorder and 22 traits of interest (chosen because of previously published phenotypic correlations [eg, psychiatric disorders] or hypothesised associations [eg, chronotype] with cannabis use disorder), we used linkage disequilibrium score regression to calculate genetic correlations. Findings We identified two genome-wide significant loci: a novel chromosome 7 locus (FOXP2, lead single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] rs7783012; odds ratio [OR] 1·11, 95% CI 1·07â1·15, p=1·84âĂâ10â9) and the previously identified chromosome 8 locus (near CHRNA2 and EPHX2, lead SNP rs4732724; OR 0·89, 95% CI 0·86â0·93, p=6·46âĂâ10â9). Cannabis use disorder and cannabis use were genetically correlated (rg 0·50, p=1·50âĂâ10â21), but they showed significantly different genetic correlations with 12 of the 22 traits we tested, suggesting at least partially different genetic underpinnings of cannabis use and cannabis use disorder. Cannabis use disorder was positively genetically correlated with other psychopathology, including ADHD, major depression, and schizophrenia. Interpretation These findings support the theory that cannabis use disorder has shared genetic liability with other psychopathology, and there is a distinction between genetic liability to cannabis use and cannabis use disorder. Funding National Institute of Mental Health; National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; National Institute on Drug Abuse; Center for Genomics and Personalized Medicine and the Centre for Integrative Sequencing; The European Commission, Horizon 2020; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Health Research Council of New Zealand; National Institute on Aging; Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium; UK Research and Innovation Medical Research Council (UKRI MRC); The Brain & Behavior Research Foundation; National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA); National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering; National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia; Tobacco-Related Disease Research Program of the University of California; Families for Borderline Personality Disorder Research (Beth and Rob Elliott) 2018 NARSAD Young Investigator Grant; The National Child Health Research Foundation (Cure Kids); The Canterbury Medical Research Foundation; The New Zealand Lottery Grants Board; The University of Otago; The Carney Centre for Pharmacogenomics; The James Hume Bequest Fund; National Institutes of Health: Genes, Environment and Health Initiative; National Institutes of Health; National Cancer Institute; The William T Grant Foundation; Australian Research Council; The Virginia Tobacco Settlement Foundation; The VISN 1 and VISN 4 Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Centers of the US Department of Veterans Affairs; The 5th Framework Programme (FP-5) GenomEUtwin Project; The Lundbeck Foundation; NIH-funded Shared Instrumentation Grant S10RR025141; Clinical Translational Sciences Award grants; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of General Medical Sciences.Peer reviewe