Association between the swine production areas and the human population in Pinar del Río province, Cuba

Aim: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the association between high human population density and high pig production in the province of Pinar del Río, Cuba. Materials and Methods: Records on pig movements at the district level in Pinar del Río province from July 2010 to December 2012 were used in the study. A network analysis was carried out considering districts, as nodes, and movements of pigs between them represented the edges. The in-degree parameter was calculated using R 3.1.3 software. Graphical representation of the network was done with Gephi 0.8.2, and ArcGIS 10.2. was used for the spatial analysis to detect clusters by the Getis-Ord Gi* method and visualize maps as well. Results: Significant spatial clusters of high values (hot spots) and low values (cold spots) of in-degree were identified. A cluster of high values was located in the central area of the province, and a cluster of low values involving municipalities of the Western zone was detected. Logistic regression demonstrated that a higher human population density per district was associated (odds ratio=16.020, 95% confidence interval: 1.692-151.682, p=0.016) with areas of high pork production. Conclusion: Hot spot of swine production in Pinar del Río is associated with human densely populated districts, which may suppose a risk of spillover of pathogens able to infect animals and humans. These results can be considered in strategy planning in terms of pork production increases and improvements of sanitary, commercial, and economic policies by decision-makers

Classical Swine Fever in a Cuban Zone Intended for Eradication : Spatiotemporal Clustering and Risk Factors

Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is an endemic disease in Cuba, and an eradication strategy by zones is planned by the Official Veterinary Service. The aim of this study was to identify high-risk areas of CSF and the risk factors associated with the disease occurrence in the Pinar del Rio province, one of the prioritized areas in the eradication strategy. The outbreak occurrence at district level was analyzed through a 7-year period (2009 to 2015). A high-risk cluster (RR = 5.13, 95% CI 3.49-7.56) was detected during the last 2 years of the study period in the eastern half of the province, with 38 out of 97 districts included. The rate of CSF-affected holdings had a significant increase during 2014-2015 and seems to have occurred mainly in the high-risk cluster area. Swine population density by district (heads/km(2)) and road length (km) by district were associated with the disease outbreak occurrence. These results provide new insights into the knowledge of the epidemiology of the disease in Cuban endemic conditions and can contribute to improving the control and the eradication strategy in this situation

Descriptive epidemiology of endemic Classical Swine Fever in Cuba

In Cuba, Classical Swine Fever (CSF) has become an endemic disease since 1993 with several outbreaks each year despite the compulsory vaccination program implemented. To deepen the disease characterization is essential for improving the CSF control measures and to achieve its eradication. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of CSF occurrences in Cuba during a seven-year period within the endemic situation. Data on CSF occurrence from January 2010 to December 2016 were analyzed. The seven-year period shows a tendency of the number of affected premises to increase (r=0.31, p=0.005) over time (month). Directional distribution (1SD ellipse) indicated a great dispersion of affected premises by year across the country with a trend to a higher occurrence to the west. It was demonstrated by the negative correlation (r=-0.893, p=0.007) between the longitude of the mean center of the ellipses over the years. The Kernel density indicated that the disease was spatially distributed across the whole country, but four hot spots were found in the western (Pinar del Río and Artemisa) and eastern (Guantánamo and Holguín) regions. The clinical sign most frequently reported in affected premises was fever, followed by loss of appetite, conjunctivitis, and diarrhea. The most frequent observed clinical signs were non-specific, which complicates the disease recognition in the field. The obtained results have a practical importance for improving the efficiency of the CSF control program implemented in the country and contribute to enhance epidemiological surveillance taking into account the risk based principles

Influenza aviar. Oportunidades de mejora del sistema de vigilancia activa basado en riesgo en Cuba

El perfeccionamiento continuo de la vigilancia y el control de la influenza aviar (IA) son prioridades a nivel mundial debido a la permanencia de esta amenaza a escala global. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue identificar oportunidades de mejora en el sistema de vigilancia activa de la IA establecido en Cuba. Mediante análisis geoespacial multicriterio se mapeó con resolución de 1 km2. Adicionalmente, se tuvo en cuenta la existencia de zonas de contigüidad entre granjas avícolas (< 3 km) donde pudiera verse favorecida la difusión del agente causal en caso de introducción. Como resultado, se identificaron áreas con muy alto riesgo de ocurrencia, ya sea por exposición o difusión que, en ocasiones, se favoreció por la contigüidad entre granjas avícolas comerciales. A partir de estos hallazgos se logró refinar el criterio preexistente para la selección de granjas a ser investigadas durante la vigilancia activa, lo cual pudiera mejorar la capacidad de detección de casos positivos. La precisión y el manejo del riesgo de difusión son de gran importancia porque suele ser el principal determinante de la magnitud de la epidemia. Se concluye que existen áreas estratégicas y de marcada importancia hacia donde se deben dirigir, prioritariamente, los principales recursos para fortalecer la bioseguridad y la vigilancia encaminada a la alerta rápida

Influenza aviar. Oportunidades de mejora del sistema de vigilancia activa basado en riesgo en Cuba

El perfeccionamiento continuo de la vigilancia y el control de la influenza aviar (IA) son prioridades a nivel mundial debido a la permanencia de esta amenaza a escala global. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue identificar oportunidades de mejora en el sistema de vigilancia activa de la IA establecido en Cuba. Mediante análisis geoespacial multicriterio se mapeó con resolución de 1 km2. Adicionalmente, se tuvo en cuenta la existencia de zonas de contigüidad entre granjas avícolas (< 3 km) donde pudiera verse favorecida la difusión del agente causal en caso de introducción. Como resultado, se identificaron áreas con muy alto riesgo de ocurrencia, ya sea por exposición o difusión que, en ocasiones, se favoreció por la contigüidad entre granjas avícolas comerciales. A partir de estos hallazgos se logró refinar el criterio preexistente para la selección de granjas a ser investigadas durante la vigilancia activa, lo cual pudiera mejorar la capacidad de detección de casos positivos. La precisión y el manejo del riesgo de difusión son de gran importancia porque suele ser el principal determinante de la magnitud de la epidemia. Se concluye que existen áreas estratégicas y de marcada importancia hacia donde se deben dirigir, prioritariamente, los principales recursos para fortalecer la bioseguridad y la vigilancia encaminada a la alerta rápida