A spatial approach to measure productivity spillovers of foreign affiliated firms in Turkish manufacturing industries

In this paper we aim to analyze the productivity spillovers of foreign affiliated and domestic firms in Turkish manufacturing industries. As a novelty inter-sectoral linkages are modeled through the use of spatial models. Our results indicate the existence of positive and significant productivity spillovers among the neighborhood firms. We also find that an increase in the share of foreign affiliated firms in a given industry has positive impact on the productivity level of vertically related industries. However, our results do not provide any clear evidence that domestic firms benefit from the foreign affiliated firms either operating in the same industry or in the neighborhood industries. The findings suggest that unlike the effects of foreign affiliated firms, research and development expenditures significantly contribute to the productivity levels of domestic firms. --Productivity,foreign direct investment,research and development,spatial econometrics

Relative Price Adjustment and the UK Philips Curve

We find that measures of the distribution of relative price changes are significant when included in a standard model of the UK Phillips curve based on time dependent price adjustment. Since the inclusion of these variables is not implied by this model but is implied by a state-dependent model of price adjustment or by a time-dependent model with allowance for heterogeneity among price-setters, we conclude that the familiar time-dependent model does not provide a complete account of the Phillips curve.New Keynesian Phillips curve, Relative Price Changes, Labour share

The bank lending channel in Turkey: Has it changed after the low inflation regime?

In this paper we aim to analyze the role of credit channel in the monetary transmission mechanism under different inflationary environments in Turkey covering the period 1986:1 - 2009:10. Our results suggest that traditional interest rate channel is only valid for the postinflation targeting period. This variable is also more effective monetary policy tool in terms of its impacts on economic activity in the both regimes. Credit shocks itself have significant power on economic activity and prices. However, the effect of monetary shocks on credit volume is very limited especially in the low inflation regime. --

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS IN FORECASTING TURKISH INFLATION

WOS: 000302497900005This paper analyses inflation forecasting power of artificial neural networks with alternative univariate time series models for Turkey. The forecasting accuracy of the models is compared in terms of both static and dynamic forecasts for the period between 1982:1 and 2009:12. We find that at earlier forecast horizons conventional models, especially ARFIMA and ARIMA, provide better one-step ahead forecasting performance. However, unobserved components model turns out to be the best performer in terms of dynamic forecasts. The superiority of the unobserved components model suggests that inflation in Turkey has time varying pattern and conventional models are not able to track underlying trend of inflation in the long run

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

WOS: 000323798100100In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Consumer choice and local network effects in mobile telecommunications in Turkey

WOS: 000319243000008The aim of this paper is to analyze the extent of network effects in mobile telecommunications in Turkey, and to identify other determinants of consumer choice based on consumer survey data. This study shows that there are regional disparities in the adoption of network services in Turkey, the attractiveness of the different networks varies for consumers between different regions. The results show that local network effects are significant for consumer choice. This finding means that consumers are more likely to be affected by the choices of other people within their local area than by the overall size of a network. Furthermore, local network effects also outweigh macro network effects at least in Turkey. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A META-FRONTIER APPROACH TO MEASURE PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN AFFILIATED FIRMS

WOS: 000325169300001This paper aims to evaluate the performance of foreign affiliated and domestic firms in Turkish manufacturing subsectors covering the period 1992 and 2001. Due to the heterogeneity between domestic and foreign affiliated firms in terms of technology level, we construct a meta-frontier model to measure relative efficiency and technology gap ratios (TGR's) of domestic and foreign affiliated firms. We find that technical efficiencies of foreign affiliated firms are higher than domestic firms, and display a stable pattern during the investigation period. However; technology gap ratios indicate the existence of a negative relationship between the TGR's and technical efficiency of the firms in domestic subsectors. This means that technically efficient firms are in fact using the low level of technology. However the results do not indicate any significant relationship between the technical efficiency and TGR's of foreign affiliated firms