Quantitative performance-based evaluation of a procedure for flexible design concept generation

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 152-163).This thesis presents an experimental methodology for objective and quantitative design procedure evaluation based on anticipated lifecycle performance of design concepts, and a procedure for flexible design concept generation. The methodology complements existing evaluation methodologies by measuring anticipated performance via efficient computer modeling techniques. The procedure, in contrast to others, stimulates flexible design concept generation by packaging a short lecture on flexibility, and a prompting ideation mechanism. Controlled collaborative experiments had participants suggest alternative solutions to a design problem under different treatment conditions. Experimental conditions used the procedure for flexibility, while control conditions relied on prior training in science and engineering only, and free undirected ideation. Measures included the quantity of flexible design concepts generated, anticipated economic performance improvements compared to a benchmark design, participants' subjective impressions of satisfaction with the process and results, and results quality assessments. Seventy-one designers divided among twenty-six teams performed the experiments involving a simplified real estate infrastructure design problem. Application of the methodology demonstrated effective and efficient evaluation of the design procedure based on anticipated performance of design concepts. The lecture and prompting mechanism significantly improved anticipated performance compared to the benchmark design, by nearly thirty-six percent. The prompting mechanism significantly improved generation of valuable flexible design concepts. Lecturing improved significantly user satisfaction with the process and results, as well as results quality assessments. Even though prompting demonstrably improved anticipated performance and concept generation, it had no effect on participants' satisfaction with the process and results - unless combined with the lecture. Also, prompting did not lead participants to expect better results quality. This demonstrates the need for thorough and rigorous procedure evaluations based both on subjective user impressions and objective quantitative measurements. A preliminary analysis suggests that the proposed experimental platform can be used to study the influence of uncertainty and flexibility related words on discussion content, although more work is necessary to fully validate the approach.by Michel-Alexandre Cardin.Ph.D

Design and management of flexible engineering systems

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2007.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-112).This thesis proposes a practical approach to defining flexible design and development strategies for maximizing the expected value of engineering systems. Specifically, the approach deals with the fact that it is generally computationally impractical to explore all the possible ways a system might be developed and operated, given the large number of possible scenarios in which the system might evolve. To make the analysis tractable within the computational resources available, it proposes that designers and program managers use a catalog of representative operating plans built from combinations of design elements and management decision rules. These are associated with a range of possible scenarios of uncertain variables that might affect the system's expected value and performance. This work develops the novel methodology introduced by (de Neufville, 2006) to guide the search for catalogs of operating plans while aiming at minimizing computational effort. It assumes a model of the engineering system is available, together with several value/performance metrics such as Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) and Value At Risk and Gain (VARG). It uses an algorithm based on statistical experiment design, Adaptive One-Factor-At-a-Time (OFAT) (Frey and Wang, 2006; Wang, 2007), to search the combinatorial space in light of system's responses to a limited set of uncertain variable scenarios.(cont.) Two case studies demonstrate the benefits of the analysis methodology. One is inspired from the development of a parking garage near the Bluewater commercial center in the United Kingdom. The other relates to the development of a real estate project in the United States. Results from case studies show improvement compared to inflexible design of engineering systems while still requiring minimal computational effort. This, together with appropriate policy recommendations, provides incentives for dissemination of the analysis methodology in industry and government. The simplicity of the methodology and use of tools already familiar to the firm and government agency alleviate political barriers to implementation. It allows designers and program managers to remain within established framework, rules, and management constraints. It favors transparent presentation and efficient application to design and management of engineering systems, thus allowing program managers to present the natural evolution of decisions to senior decision-makers.by Michel-Alexandre Cardin.S.M

Engineering Economy Module

This intensive micro-subject provides the necessary skills in Excel spreadsheet modeling for ESD.71 – Engineering Systems Analysis for Design. Its purpose is to bring entering students up to speed on some of the advanced techniques that we routinely use in analysis. It is motivated by our experience that many students only have an introductory knowledge of Excel, and thus waste a lot of time thrashing about unproductively. Many people think they know Excel, but overlook many efficient tools – such as Data Table and Goal Seek. It is also useful for a variety of other subjects