Modelling stress-dependent effective porosity-permeability relationships of metre-scale heterogeneous mudstones

PhD Thesis. Accompanying CD-ROM available for consultation in the Robinson Library.The importance of shales and mudstones to applied geosciences and in particular to fluid migration in sedimentary basins has never been more recognized than today. Prominent examples are conventional or unconventional petroleum systems, where shales and mudstones act as source, reservoir or cap rock, but also CO2 and nuclear waste storage or hydrogeology. Despite their importance, shales and mudstones are yet not as far well understood as sandstones or carbonate rocks. In particular, the influence of heterogeneity on fluid migration has been poorly addressed in the past, although many authors have identified and studied heterogeneities in shales and mudstones. Nevertheless, their flow properties are fairly well understood when treated as homogeneous on sample scale (centimetre-scale). Typical flow relevant heterogeneities are grain size and thus petrophysical property (e.g. porosity, permeability, capillary entry pressures) variations due to spatial lithological variation induced by primary and secondary sedimentary structures. In this study we investigate flow relevant heterogeneities of shales and mudstones on submetre scale derived from core and borehole images from an off-shore gas field in the Western Nile Delta, Egypt. Thereby, we combine latest models and published measurements of sample-scale petrophysical properties with interpretation, quantitative analyses, advanced modelling and numerical fluid flow simulation to assess the influence of shale and mudstone heterogeneity on fluid flow and hence, fluid migration, retention and mudstone seal capacity. Additionally, the set of mudstone heterogeneities used in this study has been derived from a combined visual and geostatistical interpretation of more than 500 m of mud-rich core and borehole images. As final results, we deliver stress-dependent effective porosity-permeability relationships for a broad range of shale and mudstone heterogeneities, representative model sizes and resolution as well as measures of uncertainty for each heterogeneity type. Moreover, probability density functions describing where and how these heterogeneities appear in larger scale geological units, such as seismic facies or local depositional environments, are provided. As a key result, heterogeneity and lithological variation have great influences on effective permeability and effective permeability anisotropy (Kh/Kv). Furthermore, our results indicate that mudstone heterogeneity is very common in all investigated larger scale geological units (hemipelagites, levees, channels). Modelling of fluid flow through mud-rich sedimentary basins without inclusion of these sub-metre scale heterogeneities of mudstones can therefore lead to misleading results. Thus, effective porosity-permeability (anisotropy) relationships are provided for different lithological variations and mudstone heterogeneities as a final result.Caprocks Projec

Hysteretic evolution of ice rises and ice rumples with variations in sea level

Ice rises and ice rumples are locally grounded features found in coastal Antarctica and are surrounded by otherwise freely floating ice shelves. An ice rise has an independent flow regime, whereas the flow regime of an ice rumple conforms to that of the ice shelf and merely slows the flow of ice. In both cases, local highs in the bathymetry are in contact with the ice shelf from below, thereby regulating the large-scale ice flow, with implications for the upstream continental grounding line position. This buttressing effect, paired with the suitability of ice rises as a climate archive, necessitates a better understanding of the transition between ice rise and ice rumple, their evolution in response to a change in sea level, and their dynamic interaction with the surrounding ice shelf. We investigate this behaviour using a three-dimensional full Stokes ice flow model. The simulations span end-member basal friction scenarios of almost stagnant and fully sliding ice at the ice-bed interface. We analyse the coupling with the surrounding ice shelf by comparing the deviations between the non-local full Stokes surface velocities and the local shallow ice approximation (SIA). Deviations are generally high at the ice divides and small on the lee sides. On the stoss side, where ice rise and ice shelf have opposing flow directions, deviations can be significant. Differences are negligible in the absence of basal sliding where the corresponding steady state ice rise is larger and develops a fully independent flow regime that is well described by SIA. When sea level is increased and a transition from ice rise to ice rumple is approached, the divide migration is more abrupt the higher the basal friction. In each scenario, the transition occurs after the stoss side grounding line has moved over the bed high and is positioned on a retrograde slope. We identify a hysteretic response of ice rises and ice rumples to changes in sea level, with grounded area being larger in a sea level increase scenario than in a sea level decrease scenario. This hysteresis not only shows irreversibility following an equal increase and subsequent decrease in sea level, but also has important implications for ice flow model initialisation. The initial grounded area needs to be carefully considered, as this will determine the formation of either an ice rise or an ice rumple, thereby causing different buttressing effects

Behavioral Interventions for Climate Mitigation in Developing Countries : Overview and Prospects

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MBehavioral interventions are increasingly being considered as useful complements of traditional climate-policy instruments. These interventions are so far mostly being studied and applied in high-income countries. Here, we examine their application to achieve carbon emissions reduction in low- and middle-income countries. This involves synthesizing evidence from meta-analyses and systematic reviews from developed countries and deriving general insights for developing countries. We also review evidence from primary studies in developing countries, organizing insights by major world regions. We discuss context dependence of findings, as well to what extent behavioral interventions are complementary to, and create synergies with, other policy instruments. We hope that the present overview serves as starting point to expand the currently small evidence base on climate-relevant behavioral interventions in developing countries. Suggestions are made how to move this research forward

Mitochondrial Reactive Oxygen Species Are Obligatory Signals for Glucose-Induced Insulin Secretion

OBJECTIVE—Insulin secretion involves complex events in which the mitochondria play a pivotal role in the generation of signals that couple glucose detection to insulin secretion. Studies on the mitochondrial generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) generally focus on chronic nutrient exposure. Here, we investigate whether transient mitochondrial ROS production linked to glucose-induced increased respiration might act as a signal for monitoring insulin secretion

Predictability and controlling factors of overpressure in the North Alpine Foreland Basin, SE Germany: an interdisciplinary post-drill analysis of the Geretsried GEN-1 deep geothermal well

The North Alpine Foreland Basin in SE Germany is Germany’s most active deep geothermal province. However, in its southern and eastern part the basin is considerably overpressured, which is a significant challenge for drilling deep geothermal wells. In this study, we combine drilling data and velocity-based pore pressure analyses with 3D basin modeling to assess the predictability and controlling factors of overpressure in the sub-regional context (area of 80 km × 50 km) around the Geretsried GEN-1 well, a deep geothermal exploration well in the southern part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in SE Germany. Drilling data and velocity-based pore pressure analyses indicate overpressure maxima in the Lower Oligocene (Rupelian and Schoeneck Formation) and up to mild overpressure in the Upper Oligocene (Chattian) and Upper Cretaceous, except for the hydrostatically pressured northwestern part of the study area. 3D basin modeling calibrated to four hydrocarbon wells surrounding the Geretsried GEN-1 well demonstrates the dominating role of disequilibrium compaction and low permeability units related to overpressure generation in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. However, secondary overpressure generation mechanisms are likely contributing. Also, the impact of Upper Cretaceous shales, which are eroded in the northwestern part of the study area, on overpressure maintenance is investigated. The calibrated basin model is tested against the drilling history and velocity (VSP) data-based pore pressure estimate of the Geretsried GEN-1 well and reveals that pore pressure prediction is generally possible using 3D basin modeling in the North Alpine Foreland Basin, but should be improved with more detailed analysis of lateral drainage systems and facies variations in the future. The results of the study are of relevance to future well planning and drilling as well as to geomechanical modeling of subsurface stresses and deep geothermal production in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. © 2020, The Author(s)

Evolution of Derwael Ice Rise in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, over the last millennia

Ice rises situated in the ice-shelf belt around Antarctica have a spatially confined flow regime with local ice divides. Beneath the divides, ice stratigraphy often develops arches with amplitudes that record the divide's horizontal residence time andsurface elevation changes. To investigate the evolution of Derwael Ice Rise, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, we combine radar and GPS data from three consecutive surveys, with a two-dimensional, full Stokes, thermomechanically-coupled, transient ice-flow model. We find that the surface mass balance (SMB) is higher on the upwind and lower on the downwind slopes. Near the crest, the SMB is anomalously low and causes arches to form in the shallow stratigraphy, observable by radar. In deeper ice, arches are consequently imprinted by both SMB and ice rheology (Raymond effect). The data show how arch amplitudes decrease as along-ridge slope increases, emphasizing that the lateral positioning of radar cross-sections is important for the arch interpretation. Using the model with three rheologies (isotropic with n = 3,4.5 and anisotropic with n = 3), we show that Derwael Ice Rise is close to steady-state, but is best explained using ice anisotropy and moderate thinning. Our preferred, albeit notunique, scenario suggests that the ice divide has existed for at least 5000 years and lowered at approximately 0.03 m a−1 over the last 3400 years. Independent of the specific thinning scenario, our modeling suggests that Derwael Ice Rise has exhibited a local flow regime at least since the Mid-Holocene

The Low-Code Phenomenon: Mapping the Intellectual Structure of Research

The term low-code has been closely associated with simplifying and accelerating software development. Driven by the idea that low-code can help to meet the increased digitalization demands, the low-code phenomenon is rising in academia and industry. This resulted in an immense increase in publications on low-code, posing the question of what research streams characterize the low-code literature. Conducting bibliometric analysis on 725 articles, we unpack the intellectual structure of low-code literature and uncover how it relates to other research fields. Our contribution is to clarify the conceptual understanding of low-code by identifying six research streams, namely, origins of low-code within software engineering (SE), low-code as an enabler for emerging SE trends, workplace transformation, establishing low-code methodologies, understanding low-code adoption and leveraging low-code for digital transformation. We conclude with future research directions that still need to be explored within the low-code literature

Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAcord transformatiu CRUE-CSICPublic support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time