The impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states

This paper assesses the impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate change is anticipated to change the variability of water supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies have focused mainlyon water scarcity, measured in terms of mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water variability measure used here captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability over periods of 30 and 100 years. The analysis used economic and international relations data to identify incentives for international cooperation in addressing water supply variability. The authors find that small-to-moderate increases in variability create an impetus for cooperation, although large increases in variability would reduce incentives for treaty cooperation. Stronger diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation, while uneven economic power inhibits cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation across the basin riparians. The findings have policy implications in the context of preparedness for impacts of climate change on the water sector.Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Water and Industry,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Drought Management,Common Property Resource Development

Adaptation to climate extremes in developing countries : the role of education

Global climate models predict a rise in extreme weather in the next century. To better understand future interactions among adaptation costs, socioeconomic development, and climate change in developing countries, observed losses of life from floods and droughts during 1960-2003 are modeled using three determinants: weather events, income per capita, and female education. The analysis reveals countries with high female education weathered extreme weather events better than countries with equivalent income and weather conditions. In that case, one would expect resilience to increase with economic growth and improvements in education. The relationship between resilience in the face of extreme weather events and increases in female education expenditure holds when socioeconomic development continues but the climate does not change, and socioeconomic development continues with weather paths driven by"wet"and"dry"Global Climate Models. Educating young women may be one of the best climate change disaster prevention investments in addition to high social rates of return in overall sustainable development goals.Hazard Risk Management,Population Policies,Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Impacts

The Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries

Without international assistance, developing countries will adapt to climate change as best they can. Part of the cost will be absorbed by households and part by the public sector. Adaptation costs will themselves be affected by socioeconomic development, which will also be affected by climate change. Without a better understanding of these interactions, it will be difficult for climate negotiators and donor institutions to determine the appropriate levels and modes of adaptation assistance. This paper contributes by assessing the economics of adaptation to extreme weather events. We address several questions that are relevant for the international discussion: How will climate change alter the incidence of these events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically? How will future socioeconomic development, notably an increased focus on education and empowerment for women and girls, affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context?women; girls; extreme weather; education; economic development; climate change

Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Indonesia- Working Paper 280

This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demand for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, and local rainfall and terrain slope. Our econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing. We find significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall, and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, and the absence of impact for protected-area status is particularly notable. Our results strongly support the model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia’s financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful force.

Irrigated agriculture as an indicator of socio-political stability in the Wadi el Far'a, West Bank

The Wadi el Far'a catchment is a tributary of the Jordan River located entirely the West Bank in the Middle East. Increasing population in the catchment, with economic development, is likely to increase water needs in this water region. In the water management of the region, agriculture is an essential dominant component, currently amounting to 80%, total water use (Merrett, 2002). There are data that suggest that an increase in irrigated agriculture possible and desirable. First, the total irrigated area has actually decreased recent years, due probably to current geopolitical tensions (Palestinian Group cited in Beschorner, 1992). Second, there exists a 33% irrigated / land ratio (Elmusa, 1997). Third, (irrigated) agriculture is a major component the economy Allen 1999). This paper looks at the relationship between irrigated farmland and political tension, and examines the hypothesis that socio-political for a documentable increase in area of irrigated agriculture. The political boundaries and milieux delineate area of varying socio-political stability is suggested that socio-political stability promotes agricultural infrastructure, access to water, and markets needed for the investment of irrigated agriculture. A brief context of water use, land use, and agriculture in the catchment presented vis-à-vis the geopolitical situation. A variety of Remote Sensor and Geographic Information System (GIS) data are analyzed with geographic techniques to determine any significant differences in the agricultural landscape between three distinct political eras: Period I: between the first Intifada Palestinian Uprising) and the Oslo Agreement; Period II: after the Oslo Agreement up to the second Al-A qsa Intifada; and Period Ill: during the Al-A qsa Intifada to the present

Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case

Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal migration in countries such as Yemen, despite the pressures created by water scarcity. By combining data from Yemen’s latest census and a weather database as well as other geographic information, we analyze the determinants of past net internal migration rates. Next, using future climate change scenarios, we predict the potential impact of rising temperatures on future net internal migration rates. The results suggest that while climate does have an impact on net internal migration rates, this impact is limited, so that on the basis of past patterns of climate and migration, rising temperature may not have a large impact on future net internal migration

Transport Costs, Comparative Advantage, and Agricultural Development: Evidence from Jamuna Bridge in Bangladesh

This paper studies the effects of a large reduction in transport costs on agricultural development in a developing country with a focus on the interactions among comparative advantage and transport costs of a location, and transport intensity and value of a commodity. We extend the von Thunen model of land allocation to incorporate costly technology adoption and comparative advantage based on land productivity. The theoretical analysis predicts spatial non-linearity in cropland allocation, and produces deviation of observed cropping pattern from the efficient crop choices. A reduction in transport costs leads to adoption of productivity-enhancing inputs in the newly-connected region, and increases the share of land devoted to the high-value transport-intensive crop, with the strongest effect in the areas that are not too near or too far from the center and also have a higher land productivity in that crop. The empirical context of our analysis is the Jamuna bridge in Bangladesh, which opened in 1998, and reduced the transport costs from the poor hinterland in the north-west to the capital city Dhaka by more than 50 percent. Using sub-district level panel data, we implement doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design where the comparison areas come from a region which is supposed to be connected to the capital city by the proposed, but yet to be built, Padma bridge. We find that the construction of Jamuna bridge led to increased adoption of technology (fertilizer, irrigation, green-ness and cropping intensity) and reallocation of land from low-value and non-perishable crop rice to high-value crops, pulses (non-perishable) and vegetables (perishable). The evidence indicates spatial non-linearity in the effects on cropping intensity and on the reallocation of land in areas with comparative advantage in vegetable production. For cropping intensity, the magnitude of the effect is large in the intermediate distance (130-150 km) from the bridge. In areas with relatively higher vegetable productivity, land allocated to rice declined, and in particular, the land was reallocated from HYV rice to vegetables in the intermediate distance (110-150 km). This improved productive efficiency by aligning the cropping pattern more closely with comparative advantage. The bridge thus led to agricultural development through technology adoption, higher cropping intensity, and by reducing the spatial mismatch between land suitability and crop choice

Transport Costs, Comparative Advantage, and Agricultural Development: Evidence from Jamuna Bridge in Bangladesh

This paper studies the effects of a large reduction in transport costs on agricultural development in a developing country with a focus on the interactions among comparative advantage and transport costs of a location, and transport intensity and value of a commodity. We extend the von Thunen model of land allocation to incorporate costly technology adoption and comparative advantage based on land productivity. The theoretical analysis predicts spatial non-linearity in cropland allocation, and produces deviation of observed cropping pattern from the efficient crop choices. A reduction in transport costs leads to adoption of productivity-enhancing inputs in the newly-connected region, and increases the share of land devoted to the high-value transport-intensive crop, with the strongest effect in the areas that are not too near or too far from the center and also have a higher land productivity in that crop. The empirical context of our analysis is the Jamuna bridge in Bangladesh, which opened in 1998, and reduced the transport costs from the poor hinterland in the north-west to the capital city Dhaka by more than 50 percent. Using sub-district level panel data, we implement doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design where the comparison areas come from a region which is supposed to be connected to the capital city by the proposed, but yet to be built, Padma bridge. We find that the construction of Jamuna bridge led to increased adoption of technology (fertilizer, irrigation, green-ness and cropping intensity) and reallocation of land from low-value and non-perishable crop rice to high-value crops, pulses (non-perishable) and vegetables (perishable). The evidence indicates spatial non-linearity in the effects on cropping intensity and on the reallocation of land in areas with comparative advantage in vegetable production. For cropping intensity, the magnitude of the effect is large in the intermediate distance (130-150 km) from the bridge. In areas with relatively higher vegetable productivity, land allocated to rice declined, and in particular, the land was reallocated from HYV rice to vegetables in the intermediate distance (110-150 km). This improved productive efficiency by aligning the cropping pattern more closely with comparative advantage. The bridge thus led to agricultural development through technology adoption, higher cropping intensity, and by reducing the spatial mismatch between land suitability and crop choice

Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa

In response to rising inequality following decades of trade liberalization, many countries are adopting trade restrictions. Can temporary trade restrictions have long-lasting effects on spatial distribution of employment and resource allocation? To analyze this, we exploit the civil war in Cote d'Ivoire (2002-2007) that disrupted access to world market for two neighboring land-locked countries: Mali and Burkina Faso. The Ivorian war forced rerouting of trade from the Abidjan route to the non-Abidjan routes. We build a general equilibrium model where a subsistence-based autarkic hinterland coexists with an integrated segment, and there are two alternative routes to the international market. A trade shock to one route affects resource allocation in both routes by shifting spatial margins of market integration and sectoral specialization. The effects are heterogeneous depending on the pre-war market access of a location. The empirical analysis takes advantage of panel data and estimates the effects on structural change in employment in non-Abidjan route using a triple difference design with location fixed effect. The areas that remain in autarkic equilibrium both before and after the trade shock provide plausible estimates of the changes arising from long-term factors unrelated to the trade shock. The estimates show that the temporary trade shock created divergence between the Abidjan and non-Abidjan routes with accelerated structural change in favor of manufacturing and services employment in the non-Abidjan route. We find evidence of persistence in the effects through higher sunk investment in built-up density, agglomeration through concentration of skilled labor, and more public investment in complementary inputs such as electricity infrastructure (measured by night-lights density)

Bridge to Bigpush or Backwash? Market Integration, Reallocation, and Productivity Effects of Jamuna Bridge in Bangladesh

This paper uses a quasi-experimental study of a major bridge construction in Bangladesh to understand the effects of a large reduction in trade costs on the pattern of structural change and agricultural productivity. We develop a spatial general equilibrium model with a core and two hinterlands at the opposite sides separated by rivers and allow for productivity gains through agglomeration in both agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The model yields insights different from the standard core-periphery and trade models:(i) the newly connected hinterland may experience higher population density and agricultural productivity despite significant de-industrialization, (ii) even with increased specialization in agriculture, the share of agricultural employment may decline when inter-regional trade requires local services (e.g. processing and trading), and (iii) the strongest effects on employment structure are felt not necessarily in the areas next to the bridge but in the areas that move out of autarky as a result of the bridge. In empirical estimation, we use doubly robust estimators in a difference-in-difference design where the comparison hinterland comes from a region which was supposed to be connected to the core (capital city) by the proposed, but not yet constructed, Padma bridge due to idiosyncratic political factors. In the short run, we find significant labor reallocation from agriculture to services in the connected hinterland, but no perceptible effects on the employment share of manufacturing, population density, and night-lights. In the long run, the labor share of manufacturing declines in the treatment hinterland and increases in the core, consistent with the de-industrialization effect emphasized in core-periphery models. However, there are significant positive effects on population density, night light luminosity and agricultural yields in the treatment hinterland which contradict backwash effects of the bridge. The effects of the bridge on intersectoral labor allocation are spatially heterogeneous, with relatively weak effects in the areas close to the bridge