A comparison of in-sample forecasting methods

In-sample forecasting is a recent continuous modification of well-known forecasting methods based on aggregated data. These aggregated methods are known as age-cohort methods in demography, economics, epidemiology and sociology and as chain ladder in non-life insurance. Data is organized in a two-way table with age and cohort as indices, but without measures of exposure. It has recently been established that such structured forecasting methods based on aggregated data can be interpreted as structured histogram estimators. Continuous in-sample forecasting transfers these classical forecasting models into a modern statistical world including smoothing methodology that is more efficient than smoothing via histograms. All in-sample forecasting estimators are collected and their performance is compared via a finite sample simulation study. All methods are extended via multiplicative bias correction. Asymptotic theory is being developed for the histogram-type method of sieves and for the multiplicatively corrected estimators. The multiplicative bias corrected estimators improve all other known in-sample forecasters in the simulation study. The density projection approach seems to have the best performance with forecasting based on survival densities being the runner-up

Quasi-elastic Charm Production In Neutrino-nucleon Scattering

A study of quasi elastic charm production in charged current neutrino-nucleon scattering is presented. A sample of about 1.3 million interactions recorded with the NOMAD detector in the CERN SPS wide band neutrino beam has been searched for quasi elastically produced charmed baryons ( L+c,Sc and S*c ). The search has been performed in two exclusive decay channels of the L+c, both including a L . Also, the semi-inclusive decay channels L+c,Sc,S *c→L+X have been studied. Kinematic selection criteria have been chosen in order to obtain samples enriched with quasi elastic charm events. Signal efficiencies and background expectations have been estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. The observed number of events in each searched channel has been found to agree with the background expectation from charged and neutral current reactions and an upper limit for the cross section has been derived. For the quasi elastic charm production cross section averaged over the neutrino energy spectrum (⟨Eν⟩) = 24.3 GeV) the upper limit has been found to be ⟨σQEC⟩ < 3.58 x 10 −40 cm2 or relative to the total charged current cross section ⟨σQEC⟩/⟨σcc⟩ < 0.22% at 95% confidence level. Assuming an energy independent cross section for neutrino energies above 15 GeV, an upper limit of σQEC < 4.0 × 10−40 cm2 (95% C. L.) has been found for the absolute cross section

Adaptation to parasites and costs of parasite resistance in mutator and nonmutator bacteria

Parasitism creates selection for resistance mechanisms in host populations and is hypothesized to promote increased host evolvability. However, the influence of these traits on host evolution when parasites are no longer present is unclear. We used experimental evolution and whole-genome sequencing of Escherichia coli to determine the effects of past and present exposure to parasitic viruses (phages) on the spread of mutator alleles, resistance, and bacterial competitive fitness. We found that mutator alleles spread rapidly during adaptation to any of four different phage species, and this pattern was even more pronounced with multiple phages present simultaneously. However, hypermutability did not detectably accelerate adaptation in the absence of phages and recovery of fitness costs associated with resistance. Several lineages evolved phage resistance through elevated mucoidy, and during subsequent evolution in phage-free conditions they rapidly reverted to nonmucoid, phage-susceptible phenotypes. Genome sequencing revealed that this phenotypic reversion was achieved by additional genetic changes rather than by genotypic reversion of the initial resistance mutations. Insertion sequence (IS) elements played a key role in both the acquisition of resistance and adaptation in the absence of parasites; unlike single nucleotide polymorphisms, IS insertions were not more frequent in mutator lineages. Our results provide a genetic explanation for rapid reversion of mucoidy, a phenotype observed in other bacterial species including human pathogens. Moreover, this demonstrates that the types of genetic change underlying adaptation to fitness costs, and consequently the impact of evolvability mechanisms such as increased point-mutation rates, depend critically on the mechanism of resistance

Bacterial pore-forming toxins: The (w)hole story?

Abstract.: Pore-forming toxins (PFTs) are the most common class of bacterial protein toxins and constitute important bacterial virulence factors. The mode of action of PFT is starting to be better understood. In contrast, little is known about the cellular response to this threat. Recent studies reveal that cells do not just swell and lyse, but are able to sense and react to pore formation, mount a defense, even repair the damaged membrane and thus survive. These responses involve a variety of signal-transduction pathways and sophisticated cellular mechanisms such as the pathway regulating lipid metabolism. In this review we discuss the different classes of bacterial PFTs and their modes of action, and provide examples of how the different bacteria use PFTs. Finally, we address the more recent field dealing with the eukaryotic cell response to PFT-induced damag

CP Violation in \tau ->\nu\pi K_S and D->\pi K_S: The Importance of K_S-K_L Interference

The $B$-factories have measured CP asymmetries in the $\tau\to\pi K_S\nu$ and $D\to K_S\pi$ modes. The $K_S$ state is identified by its decay to two pions at a time that is close to the $K_S$ lifetime. Within the Standard Model and many of its extensions, the asymmetries in these modes come from CP violation in $K^0-\bar{K}^0$ mixing. We emphasize that the interference between the amplitudes of intermediate $K_S$ and $K_L$ is as important as the pure $K_S$ amplitude. Consequently, the measured asymmetries depend on the times over which the relevant decay rates are integrated and on features of the experiment.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Systematic quantitative overviews of the literature to determine the value of diagnostic tests for predicting acute appendicitis: study protocol

BACKGROUND: Suspected acute appendicitis is the most frequent cause for emergency operations in visceral surgery worldwide. In approximately twenty percent of all cases however, the diagnosis is incorrect and patients undergo surgery without having acute appendicitis. Operations of bland appendices put patients at risk and entail a serious waste of resources. Several highly accurate tests have been introduced to diagnose acute appendicitis. The false positive rate however, has not changed over the last twenty years. Given the variation that exists in both practice and research, the uncertainty regarding the quality of the underlying evidence, there is a clear need for comprehensive, systematic and quantitative overviews of the diagnostic value of the various tests purported to be predictive of acute appendicitis. METHODS: Literature will be identified searching general bibliographic databases (MEDLINE and EMBASE), specialist computer databases (DARE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, conference proceedings, MEDION, SCISEARCH, BIOSIS) without language restrictions. We will contact experts and the manufacturers of tests. Hand-searching will complete our searches. Identified articles will be selected according to populations, tests, outcomes and study design. Papers meeting the selection criteria will be appraised to rate their methodological quality. Analysis will include exploration of heterogeneity in results. We will conduct meta-analyses to generate summary estimates of test accuracy measures and summary ROC curves where appropriate. If meta-analysis is considered to be inappropriate, we will describe the identified evidence in the context of appraised quality. DISCUSSION: These reviews should lead to formulation of recommendations for current practice and future research

Long term stability and infectivity of herpesviruses in water

For viruses to utilize environmental vectors (hard surfaces, soil, water) for transmission, physical and chemical stability is a prerequisite. There are many factors including pH, salinity, temperature, and turbidity that are known to contribute to the ability of viruses to persist in water. Equine herpesvirus type-1 (EHV-1) is a pathogenic alphaherpesvirus associated with domestic horses and wild equids. EHV-1 and recombinants of EHV-1 and EHV-9 are able to cause infections in non-equid animal species, particularly in captive settings. Many of the captive non-equid mammals are not naturally sympatric with equids and do not share enclosures, however, in many cases water sources may overlap. Similarly, in the wild, equids encounter many species at waterholes in times of seasonal drought. Therefore, we hypothesized that EHV-1 is stable in water and that water may act as a vector for EHV-1. In order to establish the conditions promoting or hindering EHV-1 longevity, infectivity and genomic stability in water; we exposed EHV-1 to varied water environments (pH, salinity, temperature, and turbidity) in controlled experiments over 21 days. The presence and infectivity of the virus was confirmed by both qPCR and cell culture experiments. Our results show that EHV-1 remains stable and infectious under many conditions in water for up to three weeks

Modification of Escherichia coli-bacteriophage interactions by surfactants and antibiotics in vitro

Although experiments indicate that the abiotic environment plays an important role in bacterial interactions with their parasitic viruses (bacteriophages or phages), it is not yet clear how exposure to compounds present in nature alters the impact of phages on bacterial growth and evolution. To address this question, we exposed Escherichia coli K12 MG1655, in combination with three lytic phages, to various substances that natural and clinical microbial populations are likely to encounter: bile salts (present in mammalian gastrointestinal tracts), sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, a common surfactant in cleaning and hygiene products) and four antibiotics (present at variable concentrations in natural and clinical environments). Our results show that bile salts and SDS can reduce the detrimental effect of phages on bacterial growth. In some cases these compounds completely mitigated any negative effects of phages on bacterial growth and consequently bacteria did not evolve resistance to phages in these conditions. The proportional effects of phages were unaffected by antibiotics in most combinations, excepting three cases of phage-drug synergy. These results suggest that accounting for interactions between phages and environmental factors such as surfactants and antibiotics will improve understanding of both bacterial growth and resistance evolution to phages in vivo and in nature