A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves

JUNO Conceptual Design Report

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is proposed to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy using an underground liquid scintillator detector. It is located 53 km away from both Yangjiang and Taishan Nuclear Power Plants in Guangdong, China. The experimental hall, spanning more than 50 meters, is under a granite mountain of over 700 m overburden. Within six years of running, the detection of reactor antineutrinos can resolve the neutrino mass hierarchy at a confidence level of 3-4$\sigma$, and determine neutrino oscillation parameters $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, $\Delta m^2_{21}$, and $|\Delta m^2_{ee}|$ to an accuracy of better than 1%. The JUNO detector can be also used to study terrestrial and extra-terrestrial neutrinos and new physics beyond the Standard Model. The central detector contains 20,000 tons liquid scintillator with an acrylic sphere of 35 m in diameter. $\sim$17,000 508-mm diameter PMTs with high quantum efficiency provide $\sim$75% optical coverage. The current choice of the liquid scintillator is: linear alkyl benzene (LAB) as the solvent, plus PPO as the scintillation fluor and a wavelength-shifter (Bis-MSB). The number of detected photoelectrons per MeV is larger than 1,100 and the energy resolution is expected to be 3% at 1 MeV. The calibration system is designed to deploy multiple sources to cover the entire energy range of reactor antineutrinos, and to achieve a full-volume position coverage inside the detector. The veto system is used for muon detection, muon induced background study and reduction. It consists of a Water Cherenkov detector and a Top Tracker system. The readout system, the detector control system and the offline system insure efficient and stable data acquisition and processing.Comment: 328 pages, 211 figure

Conformational Altered p53 as an Early Marker of Oxidative Stress in Alzheimer's Disease

In order to study oxidative stress in peripheral cells of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, immortalized lymphocytes derived from two peculiar cohorts of patients, referring to early onset AD (EOSAD) and subjects harboured AD related mutation (ADmut), were used. Oxidative stress was evaluated measuring i) the typical oxidative markers, such as HNE Michel adducts, 3 Nitro-Tyrosine residues and protein carbonyl on protein extracts, ii) and the antioxidant capacity, following the enzymatic kinetic of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione reductase (GRD). We found that the signs of oxidative stress, measured as oxidative marker levels, were evident only in ADmut but not in EOSAD patients. However, oxidative imbalance in EOSAD as well as ADmut lymphocytes was underlined by a reduced SOD activity and GRD activity in both pathological groups in comparison with cells derived from healthy subjects. Furthermore, a redox modulated p53 protein was found conformational altered in both EOSAD and ADmut B lymphocytes in comparison with control cells. This conformational altered p53 isoform, named “unfolded p53”, was recognized by the use of two specific conformational anti-p53 antibodies. Immunoprecipitation experiments, performed with the monoclonal antibodies PAb1620 (that recognizes p53wt) and PAb240 (that is direct towards unfolded p53), and followed by the immunoblotting with anti-4-hydroxynonenal (HNE) and anti- 3-nitrotyrosine (3NT) antibodies, showed a preferential increase of nitrated tyrosine residues in unfolded p53 isoform comparing to p53 wt protein, in both ADmut and EOSAD. In addition, a correlation between unfolded p53 and SOD activity was further found. Thus this study suggests that ROS/RNS contributed to change of p53 tertiary structure and that unfolded p53 can be considered as an early marker of oxidative imbalance in these patients

Measurement of ¯νμ and νμ charged current inclusive cross sections and their ratio with the T2K off-axis near detector

We report a measurement of cross section σ(νμ+nucleus→μ−+X) and the first measurements of the cross section σ(¯νμ+nucleus→μ++X) and their ratio R(σ(¯ν)σ(ν)) at (anti) neutrino energies below 1.5 GeV. We determine the single momentum bin cross section measurements, averaged over the T2K ¯ν/ν-flux, for the detector target material (mainly carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and copper) with phase space restricted laboratory frame kinematics of θμ500  MeV/c. The results are σ(¯ν)=(0.900±0.029(stat)±0.088(syst))×10−39 and σ(ν)=(2.41±0.022(stat)±0.231(syst))×10−39 in units of cm2/nucleon and R(σ(¯ν)σ(ν))=0.373±0.012(stat)±0.015(syst)

Neutrino Physics with JUNO

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton multi-purposeunderground liquid scintillator detector, was proposed with the determinationof the neutrino mass hierarchy as a primary physics goal. It is also capable ofobserving neutrinos from terrestrial and extra-terrestrial sources, includingsupernova burst neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, geoneutrinos,atmospheric neutrinos, solar neutrinos, as well as exotic searches such asnucleon decays, dark matter, sterile neutrinos, etc. We present the physicsmotivations and the anticipated performance of the JUNO detector for variousproposed measurements. By detecting reactor antineutrinos from two power plantsat 53-km distance, JUNO will determine the neutrino mass hierarchy at a 3-4sigma significance with six years of running. The measurement of antineutrinospectrum will also lead to the precise determination of three out of the sixoscillation parameters to an accuracy of better than 1\%. Neutrino burst from atypical core-collapse supernova at 10 kpc would lead to ~5000inverse-beta-decay events and ~2000 all-flavor neutrino-proton elasticscattering events in JUNO. Detection of DSNB would provide valuable informationon the cosmic star-formation rate and the average core-collapsed neutrinoenergy spectrum. Geo-neutrinos can be detected in JUNO with a rate of ~400events per year, significantly improving the statistics of existing geoneutrinosamples. The JUNO detector is sensitive to several exotic searches, e.g. protondecay via the $p\to K^++\bar\nu$ decay channel. The JUNO detector will providea unique facility to address many outstanding crucial questions in particle andastrophysics. It holds the great potential for further advancing our quest tounderstanding the fundamental properties of neutrinos, one of the buildingblocks of our Universe

Updated T2K measurements of muon neutrino and antineutrino disappearance using 1.5 x 10(21) protons on target

We report measurements by the T2K experiment of the parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^{2}_{32}$ governing the disappearance of muon neutrinos and antineutrinos in the three flavor neutrino oscillation model. Utilizing the ability of the experiment to run with either a mainly neutrino or a mainly antineutrino beam, the parameters are measured separately for neutrinos and antineutrinos. Using $7.482 \times 10^{20}$ POT in neutrino running mode and $7.471 \times 10^{20}$ POT in antineutrino mode, T2K obtained, $\sin^{2}(\theta_{23})=0.51^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$ and $\Delta m^{2}_{32} = 2.53^{+0.15}_{-0.13} \times 10^{-3}$eV$^{2}$/c$^{4}$ for neutrinos, and $\sin^{2}({\overline{\theta}}_{23})=0.42^{+0.25}_{-0.07}$ and ${\Delta\overline{m}^2}_{32} = 2.55^{+0.33}_{-0.27} \times 10^{-3}$eV$^{2}$/c$^{4}$ for antineutrinos (assuming normal mass ordering). No significant differences between the values of the parameters describing the disappearance of muon neutrinos and antineutrinos were observed.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure

Measurement of double-differential muon neutrino charged-current interactions on C8 H8 without pions in the final state using the T2K off-axis beam

We report the measurement of muon neutrino charged-current interactions on carbon without pions in the final state at the T2K beam energy using 5.734×1020 protons on target. For the first time the measurement is reported as a flux-integrated, double-differential cross section in muon kinematic variables (cosθμ, pμ), without correcting for events where a pion is produced and then absorbed by final state interactions. Two analyses are performed with different selections, background evaluations and cross-section extraction methods to demonstrate the robustness of the results against biases due to model-dependent assumptions. The measurements compare favorably with recent models which include nucleon-nucleon correlations but, given the present precision, the measurement does not distinguish among the available models. The data also agree with Monte Carlo simulations which use effective parameters that are tuned to external data to describe the nuclear effects. The total cross section in the full phase space is σ=(0.417±0.047(syst)±0.005(stat))×10-38 cm2 nucleon-1 and the cross section integrated in the region of phase space with largest efficiency and best signal-over-background ratio (cosθμ>0.6 and pμ>200 MeV) is σ=(0.202±0.036(syst)±0.003(stat))×10-38 cm2 nucleon-1

Measurement of Muon Antineutrino Oscillations with an Accelerator-Produced Off-Axis Beam.

T2K reports its first measurements of the parameters governing the disappearance of ν[over ¯]_{μ} in an off-axis beam due to flavor change induced by neutrino oscillations. The quasimonochromatic ν[over ¯]_{μ} beam, produced with a peak energy of 0.6 GeV at J-PARC, is observed at the far detector Super-Kamiokande, 295 km away, where the ν[over ¯]_{μ} survival probability is expected to be minimal. Using a data set corresponding to 4.01×10^{20} protons on target, 34 fully contained μ-like events were observed. The best-fit oscillation parameters are sin^{2}(θ[over ¯]_{23})=0.45 and |Δm[over ¯]_{32}^{2}|=2.51×10^{-3}  eV^{2} with 68% confidence intervals of 0.38-0.64 and 2.26-2.80×10^{-3}  eV^{2}, respectively. These results are in agreement with existing antineutrino parameter measurements and also with the ν_{μ} disappearance parameters measured by T2K

First measurement of the muon neutrino charged current single pion production cross section on water with the T2K near detector

The T2K off-axis near detector, ND280, is used to make the first differential cross section measurements of muon neutrino charged current single positive pion production on a water target at energies ∼0.8 GeV. The differential measurements are presented as a function of the muon and pion kinematics, in the restricted phase space defined by pπþ > 200 MeV=c, pμ > 200 MeV=c, cosðθπþ Þ > 0.3 and cosðθμÞ > 0.3. The total flux integrated νμ charged current single positive pion production cross section on water in the restricted phase space is measured to be hσiϕ ¼ 4.25 0.48ðstatÞ 1.56ðsystÞ × 10−40 cm2=nucleon. The total cross section is consistent with the NEUT prediction (5.03 × 10−40 cm2=nucleon) and 2σ lower than the GENIE prediction (7.68 × 10−40 cm2=nucleon). The differential cross sections are in good agreement with the NEUT generator. The GENIE simulation reproduces well the shapes of the distributions, but overestimates the overall cross section normalization