The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be

Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from this public retirement insurance. Costs are almost 12 percent of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging on this monolithic system, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and is still ongoing. This process is the topic of this paper. It has two parts. Part A describes the German pension system as it has shaped the labor market until about the year 2000. Part B describes the three staged reform process that will convert the exemplary and monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system after the year 2000 into a complex multipillar system. The paper delivers an assessment in how far these reform steps will solve the pressing problems of a prototypical pay-as-you-go system of old age provision, hopefully with lessons for other countries with similar problems.

Reforming the German Public Pension System

Chancellor Bismarck introduced public pensions in Germany more than 120 years ago. That system has expanded into one of the most generous pension systems in the world. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from it. Costs are almost 12 percent of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and reached its peak in the 2001 and 2004 reforms. The 2001 reform converted the exemplary monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system into a complex multipillar system. The 2004 reform converted the pay-as-you-go pillar into a quasi notional defined contribution (NDC) system. This paper delivers an assessment in how far these reform steps will solve the pressing pension problems in Germany.

The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be

Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from this public retirement insurance. Costs are almost 12% of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging on this monolithic system, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and is still ongoing. This paper has two parts. Part A describes the German pension system as it has shaped the labor market from 1972 until today. Part B describes the reform process, which will convert the exemplary and monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system to a complex multi-pillar system. We provide a survey of the main features of the future German retirement system introduced by the so called “Riester Reform” in 2001 and an assessment in how far this last reform step will solve the pressing problems of the German system of old age provision.

A hadronic scenario for HESS J1818-154

Aims: G15.4+0.1 is a faint supernova remnant (SNR) that has recently been associated with the gamma-ray source HESS J1818-154. We investigate a hadronic scenario for the production of the gamma-ray emission. Methods: Molecular 13CO (J=1-0) taken from the Galactic Ring Survey (GRS) and neutral hydrogen (HI) data from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey (SGPS) have been used in combination with new 1420 MHz radio continuum observations carried out with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT). Results: From the new observations and analysis of archival data we provided for the first time a reliable estimate for the distance to the SNR G15.4+0.1 and discovered molecular clouds located at the same distance. On the basis of HI absorption features, we estimate the distance to G15.4+0.1 in 4.8+/-1.0 kpc. The 13CO observations clearly show a molecular cloud about 5 arcmin in size with two bright clumps, labeled A and B, clump A positionally associated with the location of HESS J1818-154 and clump B in coincidence with the brightest northern border of the radio SNR shell. The HI absorption and the 13CO emission study indicates a possible interaction between the molecular material and the remnant. We estimate the masses and densities of the molecular gas as (1.2+/-0.5)X10^3 M_sun and (1.5+/-0.4)X10^3 cm^-3 for clump A and (3.0+/-0.7)X10^3 M_sun and (1.1+/-0.3)X10^3 cm^-3 for clump B. Calculations show that the average density of the molecular clump A is sufficient to produce the detected gamma-ray flux, thus favoring a hadronic origin for the high-energy emission.Comment: Accepted to be published in Astronomy and Astrophysics Letter

How an Unfunded Pension System looks like Defined Benefits but works like Defined Contributions: The German Pension Reform

This paper describes the German pension reform process 1992-2007 with a stress on a remark-able development: the public pay-as-you-go-financed pension system has almost silently moved from a traditional defined benefit system to a system which works in many respects like a defined contribution system. The paper combines economic with political considerations, hopefully offering a few lessons that are useful also for other countries.

A complete radio study of SNR G15.4+0.1 from new GMRT observations

The supernova remnant G15.4+0.1 is considered to be the possible counterpart of the gamma-ray source HESSJ1818-154. With the goal of getting a complete view of this remnant and understanding the nature of the gamma-ray flux, we conducted a detailed radio study that includes the search for pulsations and a model of the broadband emission for the G15.4+0.1/HESSJ1818-154 system. Low-frequency imaging at 624 MHz and pulsar observations at 624 and 1404 MHz towards G15.4+0.1 were carried out with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT). We correlated the new radio data with observations of the source at X-ray and infrared wavelengths from XMM-Newton and Herschel observatories, respectively. To characterize the neutral hydrogen medium (HI) towards G15.4+0.1, we used data from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey. We modelled the spectral energy distribution using both hadronic and leptonic scenarios. From the combination of the new GMRT observations with existing data, we derived a continuum spectral index alpha=-0.62+-0.03 for the whole remnant. The local synchrotron spectra of G15.4+0.1, calculated from the combination of the GMRT data with 330 MHz observations from the VLA, tends to be flatter in the central part of the remnant, accompanying the region where the blast wave is impinging molecular gas. No spectral index trace was found indicating the radio counterpart to the pulsar wind nebula proposed from X-ray observations. In addition, the search for radio pulsations yielded negative results. Emission at far-infrared wavelengths is observed in the region where the SNR shock is interacting with dense molecular clumps. We also identified HI features forming a shell that wraps most of the outer border of G15.4+0.1. Characteristic parameters were estimated for the shocked HI gas. We found that either a purely hadronic or leptonic model is compatible with the broadband emission known so far.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Szenarien zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen und der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland

Dieses Papier legt Projektionen zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen sowie der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland vor. Für unser vorsichtig optimistisches Szenario gehen wir von einer allmählichen Angleichung an die heutige Arbeitsmarktsituation in Dänemark aus. In diesem Fall ergibt sich ein Rückgang in der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen um etwa 2,8 Mio. auf etwa 39,4 Mio. in 2040. Inwieweit dieses Szenario realisiert wird, hängt von dem Ausmaß künftiger Arbeitsmarktreformen und den daraus resultierenden Veränderungen im Erwerbsverhalten der Bevölkerung und der Arbeitsnachfrage ab. Ohne weitere Arbeitsmarktreformen würde die Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen bis 2040 um über 9 Mio. auf 32,6 Mio. zurückgehen. Zugleich altert die Erwerbsbevölkerung. Das Durchschnittsalter wird bis zum Jahr 2040 von 40 auf knapp 42 Jahre ansteigen. Der Anteil der Erwerbspersonen im Alter 55+ wird von etwa 11% auf 20% in 2040 und 21% in 2050 steigen. In jedem Fall, auch dem günstigsten, wird sowohl die Erwerbspersonen- als auch die Erwerbstätigenanzahl künftig schrumpfen. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte dies im Auge behalten.

Zur Sozialversicherungsfreiheit der Entgeltumwandlung

Um eine Gewichtsverschiebung zwischen den einzelnen Säulen der Alterssicherung zu erreichen, wurden in den vergangenen Jahren auch die Rahmenbedingungen für die betriebliche Altersvorsorge verbessert. So wurde für Arbeitnehmer der Anspruch auf Entgeltumwandlung eingeführt, was erlaubt, Teile des Arbeitsentgelts steuer- und sozialabgabenfrei zum Aufbau einer betrieblichen Altersversorgung zu verwenden. Die Sozialabgabenfreiheit der umgewandelten Entgeltteile ist aber bis Ende 2008 befristet. Diese Befristung steht derzeit im Zentrum der rentenpolitischen Diskussion. Während die Kritiker der Aufhebung der Sozialabgabenfreiheit darin eine Bedrohung für die weiterhin erfolgreiche Verbreitung der zweiten Säule der Alterssicherung sehen, führen die Befürworter dieser Regelung die resultierenden Beitragsausfälle für die Sozialversicherungssysteme als Grund für die Abschaffung an. Ziel dieser Studie ist es, die Bedeutung der Entgeltumwandlung für die Alterssicherung zu identifizieren sowie die durch die Beitragsfreiheit entstehenden Kosten für die Sozialversicherungssysteme zu ermitteln. Der Schwerpunkt unserer Analyse liegt bei den bislang vernachlässigten Verhaltensreaktionen, die sich jedoch zur Beantwortung der Frage nach den Auswirkungen der Sozialabgabenfreiheit für die finanzielle Lage der Rentenversicherung und das Gesamtversorgungsniveau der Versicherten als entscheidend erweisen. Unsere Ergebnisse lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen. Unsere Modellrechnungen zeigen, dass eine Beibehaltung der Sozialabgabenfreiheit zu einem leicht niedrigeren Rentenversicherungsbeitragssatz und einem etwas niedrigeren aktuellen Rentenwert führt. Die Größenordnung der Effekte reduziert sich deutlich, wenn man Verhaltensreaktionen berücksichtigt. Zweitens würde eine Beibehaltung unter der plausiblen Annahme, dass die betriebliche Altersversorgung für die künftigen Rentner eine höhere Rendite erzielt als die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung, tendenziell zu einem höheren Gesamtversorgungsniveau führen. Da die Beitragsfreiheit der Entgeltumwandlung als Anreiz für die betriebliche Altersvorsorge funktioniert, erscheint diese also nach wie vor sinnvoll zur Etablierung eines Mehrsäulensystems der Alterssicherung.

A Comparative Study on the Effects of Varying Concentrations of Eggshell Tea Fertilizer on Capsicum annum (Bell Pepper)

With the increasing worldwide demand for eggs, the continuous accumulation of these poses environmental threats because of their support for microbiological action. However, the fact that eggshells have high calcium content motivated researchers to explore their potential use as fertilizer for various plant species. Despite this, most studies only focused on applying eggshell fertilizers in solid form. Meanwhile, research on boosting bell pepper production remains sparse in the Philippines despite its increasing demand. This study examined the capabilities of eggshell tea, a liquid form of eggshell fertilizer, by determining which concentration would be most effective and least effective in growing bell peppers in the Philippines. The plants were categorized into four groups with different mass/volume percentage concentrations of eggshell tea applied: 0% (EF-0), 2% (EF-2), 4.5% (EF-4.5), and 7% (EF-7). The effects of each concentration on the number of leaves, leaf surface area, height, and growth rate of the plants were analyzed accordingly. Results showed that eggshell tea was most effective on EF-4.5 while least effective on EF-7. The EF-4.5 exhibited the fastest growth and was the healthiest regarding the tested parameters, while the controlled and EF-2 groups demonstrated moderate growth. The EF-7 exhibited the slowest growth, along with leaf yellowing, damage, and curls, attributed to over-fertilization. Eggshell tea was revealed to have a generally positive effect on bell peppers; however, too much concentration could cause damaging effects as plants that did not receive any fertilizer demonstrated better results than EF-7