Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes: a comparison of 22 risk scores in primary care settings

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare the performance of risk prediction scores for CVD (i.e., coronary heart disease and stroke), and a broader definition of CVD including atrial fibrillation and heart failure (CVD+), in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Scores were identified through a literature review and were included irrespective of the type of predicted cardiovascular outcome or the inclusion of individuals with type 2 diabetes. Performance was assessed in a contemporary, representative sample of 168,871 UK-based individuals with type 2 diabetes (age ≥18 years without pre-existing CVD+). Missing observations were addressed using multiple imputation. RESULTS: We evaluated 22 scores: 13 derived in the general population and nine in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) CVD rule derived in the general population performed best for both CVD (C statistic 0.67 [95% CI 0.67, 0.67]) and CVD+ (C statistic 0.69 [95% CI 0.69, 0.70]). The C statistic of the remaining scores ranged from 0.62 to 0.67 for CVD, and from 0.64 to 0.69 for CVD+. Calibration slopes (1 indicates perfect calibration) ranged from 0.38 (95% CI 0.37, 0.39) to 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76) for CVD, and from 0.41 (95% CI 0.40, 0.42) to 0.88 (95% CI 0.86, 0.90) for CVD+. A simple recalibration process considerably improved the performance of the scores, with calibration slopes now ranging between 0.96 and 1.04 for CVD. Scores with more predictors did not outperform scores with fewer predictors: for CVD+, QRISK3 (19 variables) had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% CI 0.68, 0.69), compared with SCORE CVD (six variables) which had a C statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.69, 0.70). Scores specific to individuals with diabetes did not discriminate better than scores derived in the general population: the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) scores performed significantly worse than SCORE CVD (p value <0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CVD risk prediction scores could not accurately identify individuals with type 2 diabetes who experienced a CVD event in the 10 years of follow-up. All 22 evaluated models had a comparable and modest discriminative ability

Development of a system for man-machine experimentation

Adapting man, as an organic link, to closed loop control systems, is increasingly presenting problems to designers of systems of any nature. Performance of the human in the systems is dependent upon a multitude of recognized factors, and many as yet unknown factors and variables. In order to investigate the problem areas involved, a means of simulating real life conditions must be available. This study centers on the development of such a laboratory simulator system and its requirements. The main area of interest selected is the human operator in tracking operations. This subject area is thoroughly researched and the major problem areas are briefly discussed. The tracking areas to be simulated include pursuit and compensatory tracking tasks, multi-dimensional tracking tasks as well as environmental control criteria for the subject, the latter consisting of an environmentally controlled chamber. Facilities were selected, based upon previous tracking studies to vary some of the basic environmental conditions: illumination, sound pressure and temperature. The tracking tasks available can be varied in type of input signal display media, operator control unit as well as waveform of the input signal, operator control response function and performance data collection. Timed, random and cumulative timed data collection features are designed into the system. In addition a chart recorder facility and interface is available for obtaining a hard copy of the actual tracking performance. Complete circuit descriptions and diagrams are presented in the appendices of this thesis. Actual conclusions on data obtained with the system are not included although a large data file has already been created. Numerous experiments are suggested however, and typical machine outputs are illustrated, interpreted and discussed. Because of the magnitude of possibilities to experiment and investigate using the simulator system, it is beyond the scope of this project to provide data and subsequent conclusions or observations

Effect of statins on atrial fibrillation: collaborative meta-analysis of published and unpublished evidence from randomised controlled trials

Objective To examine whether statins can reduce the risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Meta-analysis of published and unpublished results from larger scale statin trials, with comparison of the findings against the published results from smaller scale or shorter duration studies. Data sources Medline, Embase, and Cochrane's CENTRAL up to October 2010. Unpublished data from longer term trials were obtained through contact with investigators. Study selection Randomised controlled trials comparing statin with no statin or comparing high dose versus standard dose statin; all longer term trials had at least 100 participants and at least six months' follow-up. Results In published data from 13 short term trials (4414 randomised patients, 659 events), statin treatment seemed to reduce the odds of an episode of atrial fibrillation by 39% (odds ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.74; P&lt;0.001), but there was significant heterogeneity (P&lt;0.001) between the trials. In contrast, among 22 longer term and mostly larger trials of statin versus control (105 791 randomised patients, 2535 events), statin treatment was not associated with a significant reduction in atrial fibrillation (0.95, 0.88 to 1.03; P=0.24) (P&lt;0.001 for test of difference between the two sets of trials). Seven longer term trials of more intensive versus standard statin regimens (28 964 randomised patients and 1419 events) also showed no evidence of a reduction in the risk of atrial fibrillation (1.00, 0.90 to 1.12; P=0.99). Conclusions The suggested beneficial effect of statins on atrial fibrillation from published shorter term studies is not supported by a comprehensive review of published and unpublished evidence from larger scale trials

Embedded point of care randomisation for evaluating comparative effectiveness questions: PROSPECTOR-critical care feasibility study protocol

INTRODUCTION: Many routinely administered treatments lack evidence as to their effectiveness. When treatments lack evidence, patients receive varying care based on the preferences of clinicians. Standard randomised controlled trials are unsuited to comparisons of different routine treatment strategies, and there remains little economic incentive for change.Integrating clinical trial infrastructure into electronic health record systems offers the potential for routine treatment comparisons at scale, through reduced trial costs. To date, embedded trials have automated data collection, participant identification and eligibility screening, but randomisation and consent remain manual and therefore costly tasks.This study will investigate the feasibility of using computer prompts to allow flexible randomisation at the point of clinical decision making. It will compare the effectiveness of two prompt designs through the lens of a candidate research question-comparing liberal or restrictive magnesium supplementation practices for critical care patients. It will also explore the acceptability of two consent models for conducting comparative effectiveness research. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a single centre, mixed-methods feasibility study, aiming to recruit 50 patients undergoing elective surgery requiring postoperative critical care admission. Participants will be randomised to either 'Nudge' or 'Preference' designs of electronic point-of-care randomisation prompt, and liberal or restrictive magnesium supplementation.We will judge feasibility through a combination of study outcomes. The primary outcome will be the proportion of prompts displayed resulting in successful randomisation events (compliance with the allocated magnesium strategy). Secondary outcomes will evaluate the acceptability of both prompt designs to clinicians and ascertain the acceptability of pre-emptive and opt-out consent models to patients. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by Riverside Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 21/LO/0785) and will be published on completion. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05149820

Echocardiographic Deformation Imaging for Early Detection of Genetic Cardiomyopathies: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Clinical screening of the relatives of patients with genetic cardiomyopathies is challenging, as they often lack detectable cardiac abnormalities at presentation. Life-threatening adverse events can already occur in these early stages of disease, so sensitive tools to reveal the earliest signs of disease are needed. The utility of echocardiographic deformation imaging for early detection has been explored for this population in multiple studies but has not been broadly implemented in clinical practice. The authors discuss contemporary evidence on the utility of deformation imaging in relatives of patients with genetic cardiomyopathies. The available body of data shows that deformation imaging reveals early disease-specific abnormalities in dilated cardiomyopathy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. Deformation imaging seems promising to enhance the screening and follow-up protocols in relatives, and the authors propose measures to accelerate its implementation in clinical care

A head-to-head comparison of speckle tracking echocardiography and feature tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in right ventricular deformation

Aims: Speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) and feature tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (FT-CMR) are advanced imaging techniques which are both used for quantification of global and regional myocardial strain. Direct comparisons of STE and FT-CMR regarding right ventricular (RV) strain analysis are limited. We aimed to study clinical performance, correlation and agreement of RV strain by these techniques, using arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) as a model for RV disease. // Methods and results: We enrolled 110 subjects, including 34 patients with definite ARVC, 30 preclinical relatives of ARVC patients, and 46 healthy control subjects. Global and regional RV longitudinal peak strain (PS) were measured by STE and FT-CMR. Both modalities showed reduced strain values in ARVC patients compared to ARVC relatives (STE global PS: P < 0.001; FT-CMR global PS: P < 0.001) and reduced strain values in ARVC relatives compared to healthy control subjects (STE global PS: P = 0.042; FT-CMR global PS: P = 0.084). There was a moderate, albeit significant correlation between RV strain values obtained by STE and FT-CMR [global PS r = 0.578 (95% confidence interval 0.427–0.697), P < 0.001]. Agreement between the techniques was weak (limits of agreement for global PS: ±11.8%). Correlation and agreement both deteriorated when regional strain was studied. // Conclusion: RV STE and FT-CMR show a similar trend within the spectrum of ARVC and have significant correlation, but inter-modality agreement is weak. STE and FT-CMR may therefore both individually have added value for assessment of RV function, but RV PS values obtained by these techniques currently cannot be used interchangeably in clinical practice

Identification and mapping real-world data sources for heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, and atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Transparent and robust real-world evidence sources are increasingly important for global health, including cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to identify global real-world data (RWD) sources for heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of publications with RWD pertaining to HF, ACS, and AF (2010-2018), generating a list of unique data sources. Metadata were extracted based on the source type (e.g. electronic health records, genomics, clinical data), study design, population size, clinical characteristics, follow-up duration, outcomes, and assessment of data availability for future studies and linkage. RESULTS: Overall, 11,889 publications were retrieved for HF, 10,729 for ACS, and 6,262 for AF. From these, 322 (HF), 287 (ACS), and 220 (AF) data sources were selected for detailed review. Majority of data sources had near complete data on demographic variables (HF: 94%, ACS: 99%, and AF: 100%) and considerable data on comorbidities (HF: 77%, ACS: 93%, and AF: 97%). The least reported data categories were drug codes (HF, ACS, and AF: 10%) and caregiver involvement (HF: 6%, ACS: 1%, and AF: 1%). Only a minority of data sources provided information on access to data for other researchers (11%) or whether data could be linked to other data sources to maximize clinical impact (20%). The list and metadata for the RWD sources are publicly available at www.escardio.org/bigdata. CONCLUSIONS: This review has created a comprehensive resource of cardiovascular data sources, providing new avenues to improve future real-world research and to achieve better patient outcomes

Persistently elevated levels of sST2 after acute coronary syndrome are associated with recurrent cardiac events

Purpose Higher soluble ST2 (sST2) levels at admission are associated with adverse outcome in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We studied the dynamics of sST2 over time in post-ACS patients prior to a recurrent ACS or cardiac death. Methods We used the BIOMArCS case cohort, consisting of 187 patients who underwent serial blood sampling during one-year follow-up post-ACS. sST2 was batch-wise quantified after completion of follow-up in a median of 8 (IQR: 5-11) samples per patient. Joint modelling was used to investigate the association between longitudinally measured sST2 and the endpoint, adjusted for gender, GRACE risk score and history of cardiovascular diseases. Results Median age was 64 years and 79% were men. The 36 endpoint patients had systematically higher sST2 levels than those that remained endpoint free (mean value 29.6 ng/ml versus 33.7 ng/ml, p-value 0.052). The adjusted hazard ratio for the endpoint per standard deviation increase of sST2 was 1.64 (95% confidence interval: 1.09-2.34; p = 0.019) at any time point. We could not identify a steady or sudden increase of sST2 in the run-up to the combined endpoint. Conclusion Asymptomatic post-ACS patients with persistently higher sST2 levels are at higher risk of recurrent ACS or cardiac death during one-year follow-up

Early Mechanical Alterations in Phospholamban Mutation Carriers: Identifying Subclinical Disease Before Onset of Symptoms

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore echocardiographic characteristics of phospholamban (PLN) p.Arg14del mutation carriers to investigate whether structural and/or functional abnormalities could be identified before onset of symptoms. BACKGROUND: Carriers of the genetic PLN p.Arg14del mutation may develop arrhythmogenic and/or dilated cardiomyopathy. Overt disease is preceded by a pre-symptomatic phase of variable length in which disease expression seems to be absent. METHODS: PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers with an available echocardiogram were included. Mutation carriers were classified as pre-symptomatic if they had no history of ventricular arrhythmias (VAs), a premature ventricular complex count of <500/24 h, and a left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction of ≥45%. In addition, we included 70 control subjects with similar age and sex distribution as the pre-symptomatic mutation carriers. Comprehensive echocardiographic analysis (including deformation imaging) was performed. RESULTS: The final study population consisted of 281 PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers, 139 of whom were classified as pre-symptomatic. In comparison to control subjects, pre-symptomatic mutation carriers had lower global longitudinal strain and higher LV mechanical dispersion (both p < 0.001). In addition, post-systolic shortening (PSS) in the LV apex was observed in 43 pre-symptomatic mutation carriers (31%) and in none of the control subjects. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range: 2.1 to 5.6 years) in 104 pre-symptomatic mutation carriers, nonsustained VA occurred in 13 (13%). Presence of apical PSS was the strongest echocardiographic predictor of VA (multivariable hazards ratio: 5.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37 to 19.08; p = 0.015), which resulted in a negative predictive value of 96% (95% CI: 89% to 98%) and a positive predictive value of 29% (95% CI: 21% to 40%). CONCLUSIONS: Global and regional LV mechanical alterations in PLN p.Arg14del mutation carriers precede arrhythmic symptoms and overt structural disease. Pre-symptomatic mutation carriers with normal deformation patterns in the apex are at low risk of developing VA within 3 years, whereas mutation carriers with apical PSS appear to be at higher risk

Cardiovascular Risk Associated with Interactions among Polymorphisms in Genes from the Renin-Angiotensin, Bradykinin, and Fibrinolytic Systems

Vascular fibrinolytic balance is maintained primarily by interplay of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1). Previous research has shown that polymorphisms in genes from the renin-angiotensin (RA), bradykinin, and fibrinolytic systems affect plasma concentrations of both t-PA and PAI-1 through a set of gene-gene interactions. In the present study, we extend this finding by exploring the effects of polymorphisms in genes from these systems on incident cardiovascular disease, explicitly examining two-way interactions in a large population-based study