The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being associated with weak and deteriorating fundamentals, cannot be explained by these macroeconomic factors alone. Estimating a univariate Markovswitching model, this paper shows that shifts in agents' beliefs did indeed also play a crucial role.Currency crises, Self-fulfilling speculation, Markov-switching models

Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.Currency Crisis, Early Warning Systems

External Debt in Post-Conflict Countries

In the development literature, there exists no systematic study of external borrowing in post-conflict countries. We address this gap by analyzing statistical and case study evidence from three African countries. We find that many war-affected countries face rising debt arrears and deteriorating relations with creditors. Rebuilding trust between lenders and borrowers is hence a crucial but often slow process. Furthermore, donors to war-affected African countries have been slow to grant exceptional debt relief based odious debt or on financial requirements. Debt relief for post-conflict reconstruction should embrace a more forward-looking and more generous conditionality.

The Baltic States: No End to the Crisis in Sight

The global financial crisis and the dramatic slump in private capital flows associated with it has particularly affected the economies of the Baltic countries. The real gross domestic product decreased in the first half of 2009 in Latvia by 18.8 percent, in Estonia by 15.7 percent and in Lithuania by 11 percent. In the run-up to the current crisis, these countries had a high percentage of bank-related capital inflows that was mostly used for the financing of very high current account deficits. Currently, due to their fixed currency exchange systems and due to the lack of a possibility to create fiscal momentum, the Baltic countries only have limited economic scope of action. The situation of the public budgets is particularly tense in Latvia. Early warning indicators point to an imminent currency crisis in Latvia. A devaluation would improve the competitiveness of the country, but due to the high amount of credits given in foreign currencies, it would lead to large-scale domestic credit failures. A strong devaluation could also have negative effects on the two other Baltic countries. The example of the Baltic States shows how problematic a development strategy that is based on a high degree of foreign capital inflows actually is.Baltic countries, Currency crisis

Sexually Transmitted Disease Education and Effects on Condom Use in College Students

In the United States, nearly 50% of the sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) reported each year occur in adolescents and young adults ages 15-24. An IRB approved, exploratory mix method research study was conducted in a California Community College to investigate participants\u27 opinions on STD education tools, effectiveness, and to rank preferred instructional methods used in 51h-12\u27h grades. One hundred and thirteen students participated and reported use of variety of educational tools with the lecture technique selected by almost 80% surveyed. Demonstration of condom application had highest percent ranked as number one for the preferred educational tool; yet had the least percent reported as used in STD education. Incorporation of student\u27s preferred educational tools with the Behavior Change Model can promote self-efficacy and healthy lifestyle choices. Healthcare providers and educators have an opportunity to identify and overcome obstacles that hinder use of tools that provide effective STD education

Navigating Multiple Worlds: A Grounded Theory of Latina Students' Identity as Latina First-Generation College Students

The purpose of this study was to explore Latina students' identity as Latina first-generation college students. Constructivist grounded theory (Charmaz, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006) was used to explore two research questions: (a) For Latina students who are the first in their family to go to college, what is their understanding of being a Latina first-generation college student? (b) What strengths do Latina first-generation college students associate with being a Latina first-generation college student? A grounded theory of Latina students' identity as Latina first-generation college students was an outcome of this study. Two interviews were conducted with 12 Latina first-generation college students enrolled at the University of Maryland. Participants were considered first-generation college students if their parents' educational background did not exceed high school in the U.S. or some postsecondary education outside of the U.S., and if a sibling had not preceded them in attending college. Participants were racially/ethnically diverse, with the majority of students identifying as Central and South American. The metaphor, navigating multiple worlds, particularly the Family Environment and the University Environment, describes the negotiation of experiences that inform Latina students' identity as Latina first-generation college students. Core identities of Race/Ethnicity, Gender, Role as College Student, and Role within Family represent multiple and intersecting dimensions salient to Latina students' identity as Latina first-generation college students. Latina first-generation college students negotiated Latino/a Values and Expectations, "American" Values and Expectations, College and Family Responsibilities, Pioneering Higher Education, Responsibility to Give Back to Family and Latino/a Community, and Pressure and Pride. Living at the intersection of multiple worlds, including experiences as "the first" to attend an institution of higher education and engaging both in Latino/a culture and in "American" culture, contributed to the pressure that Latina first-generation college students experience. Latina students also received support from these distinct environments that enabled the participants to engage in culturally and educationally distinct worlds. Participants associated six strengths with being Latina first-generation college students: Family, Latino/a Culture, Spanish Language/Being Bilingual, Determination, Support Network - Prior to College and During College, and Sense of Responsibility to Help Others. This study has implications for research, theory, and practice

Intrauterine Zn deficiency favors thyrotropin-releasing hormone-increasing effects on thyrotropin serum levels and induces subclinical hypothyroidism in weaned rats

Individuals who consume a diet deficient in zinc (Zn-deficient) develop alterations in hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis function, i.e., a low metabolic rate and cold insensitivity. Although those disturbances are related to primary hypothyroidism, intrauterine or postnatal Zn-deficient adults have an increased thyrotropin (TSH) concentration, but unchanged thyroid hormone (TH) levels and decreased body weight. This does not support the view that the hypothyroidism develops due to a low Zn intake. In addition, intrauterine or postnatal Zn-deficiency in weaned and adult rats reduces the activity of pyroglutamyl aminopeptidase II (PPII) in the medial-basal hypothalamus (MBH). PPII is an enzyme that degrades thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH). This hypothalamic peptide stimulates its receptor in adenohypophysis, thereby increasing TSH release. We analyzed whether earlier low TH is responsible for the high TSH levels reported in adults, or if TRH release is enhanced by Zn deficiency at weaning. Dams were fed a 2 ppm Zn-deficient diet in the period from one week prior to gestation and up to three weeks after delivery. We found a high release of hypothalamic TRH, which along with reduced MBH PPII activity, increased TSH levels in Zn-deficient pups independently of changes in TH concentration. We found that primary hypothyroidism did not develop in intrauterine Zn-deficient weaned rats and we confirmed that metal deficiency enhances TSH levels since early-life, favoring subclinical hypothyroidism development which remains into adulthood

Decoherence as attenuation of mesoscopic echoes in a spin-chain channel

An initial local excitation in a confined quantum system evolves exploring the whole system, returning to the initial position as a mesoscopic echo at the Heisenberg time. We consider a two weakly coupled spin chains, a spin ladder, where one is a quantum channel while the other represents an environment. We quantify decoherence in the quantum channel through the attenuation of the mesoscopic echoes. We evaluate decoherence rates for different ratios between sources of amplitude fluctuation and dephasing in the inter-chain interaction Hamiltonian. The many-body dynamics is seen as a one-body evolution with a decoherence rate given by the Fermi golden rule.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure