79 research outputs found

    Bayesian approach to Spatio-temporally Consistent Simulation of Daily Monsoon Rainfall over India

    Full text link
    Simulation of rainfall over a region for long time-sequences can be very useful for planning and policy-making, especially in India where the economy is heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall. However, such simulations should be able to preserve the known spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall over India. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are unable to do so, and various rainfall generators designed by hydrologists using stochastic processes like Gaussian Processes are also difficult to apply over the vast and highly diverse landscape of India. In this paper, we explore a series of Bayesian models based on conditional distributions of latent variables that describe weather conditions at specific locations and over the whole country. During parameter estimation from observed data, we use spatio-temporal smoothing using Markov Random Field so that the parameters learnt are spatially and temporally coherent. Also, we use a nonparametric spatial clustering based on Chinese Restaurant Process to identify homogeneous regions, which are utilized by some of the proposed models to improve spatial correlations of the simulated rainfall. The models are able to simulate daily rainfall across India for years, and can also utilize contextual information for conditional simulation. We use two datasets of different spatial resolutions over India, and focus on the period 2000-2015. We propose a large number of metrics to study the spatio-temporal properties of the simulations by the models, and compare them with the observed data to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the models

    Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, but could be Mitigated by Agricultural Development

    Get PDF
    Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high and declining per capita agricultural capacity retards progress towards Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation identify another problematic trend. Main growing season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus late 20th century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability

    The Flavoring Agent Dihydrocoumarin Reverses Epigenetic Silencing and Inhibits Sirtuin Deacetylases

    Get PDF
    Sirtuins are a family of phylogenetically conserved nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide-dependent deacetylases that have a firmly established role in aging. Using a simple Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast heterochromatic derepression assay, we tested a number of environmental chemicals to address the possibility that humans are exposed to sirtuin inhibitors. Here we show that dihydrocoumarin (DHC), a compound found in Melilotus officinalis (sweet clover) that is commonly added to food and cosmetics, disrupted heterochromatic silencing and inhibited yeast Sir2p as well as human SIRT1 deacetylase activity. DHC exposure in the human TK6 lymphoblastoid cell line also caused concentration-dependent increases in p53 acetylation and cytotoxicity. Flow cytometric analysis to detect annexin V binding to phosphatidylserine demonstrated that DHC increased apoptosis more than 3-fold over controls. Thus, DHC inhibits both yeast Sir2p and human SIRT1 deacetylases and increases p53 acetylation and apoptosis, a phenotype associated with senescence and aging. These findings demonstrate that humans are potentially exposed to epigenetic toxicants that inhibit sirtuin deacetylases

    Conflict and climate factors and the risk of child acute malnutrition among children aged 24–59 months: a comparative analysis of Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda

    Get PDF
    Acute malnutrition affects a sizeable number of young children around the world, with serious repercussions for mortality and morbidity. Among the top priorities in addressing this problem are to anticipate which children tend to be susceptible and where and when crises of high prevalence rates would be likely to arise. In this article, we highlight the potential role of conflict and climate conditions as risk factors for acute malnutrition, while also assessing other vulnerabilities at the individual- and household-levels. Existing research reflects these features selectively, whereas we incorporate all the features into the same study. The empirical analysis relies on integration of health, conflict, and environmental data at multiple scales of observation to focuses on how local conflict and climate factors relate to an individual child’s health. The centerpiece of the analysis is data from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in several different cross-sectional waves covering 2003–2016 in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. The results obtained from multi-level statistical models indicate that in Kenya and Nigeria, conflict is associated with lower weight-for-height scores among children, even after accounting for individual-level and climate factors. In Nigeria and Kenya, conflict lagged 1–3 months and occurring within the growing season tends to reduce WHZ scores. In Uganda, however, weight-for-height scores are primarily associated with individual-level and household-level conditions and demonstrate little association with conflict or climate factors. The findings are valuable to guide humanitarian policymakers and practitioners in effective and efficient targeting of attention, interventions, and resources that lessen burdens of acute malnutrition in countries prone to conflict and climate shocks

    HDAC-mediated control of ERK- and PI3K-dependent TGF-β-induced extracellular matrix-regulating genes

    Get PDF
    Histone deacetylases (HDACs) regulate the acetylation of histones in the control of gene expression. Many non-histone proteins are also targeted for acetylation, including TGF-ß signalling pathway components such as Smad2, Smad3 and Smad7. Our studies in mouse C3H10T1/2 fibroblasts suggested that a number of TGF-ß-induced genes that regulate matrix turnover are selectively regulated by HDACs. Blockade of HDAC activity with trichostatin A (TSA) abrogated the induction of a disintegrin and metalloproteinase 12 (Adam12) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (Timp-1) genes by TGF-ß, whereas plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (Pai-1) expression was unaffected. Analysis of the activation of cell signalling pathways demonstrated that TGF-ß induced robust ERK and PI3K activation with delayed kinetics compared to the phosphorylation of Smads. The TGF-ß induction of Adam12 and Timp-1 was dependent on such non-Smad signalling pathways and, importantly, HDAC inhibitors completely blocked their activation without affecting Smad signalling. Analysis of TGF-ß-induced Adam12 and Timp-1 expression and ERK/PI3K signalling in the presence of semi-selective HDAC inhibitors valproic acid, MS-275 and apicidin implicated a role for class I HDACs. Furthermore, depletion of HDAC3 by RNA interference significantly down-regulated TGF-ß-induced Adam12 and Timp-1 expression without modulating Pai-1 expression. Correlating with the effect of HDAC inhibitors, depletion of HDAC3 also blocked the activation of ERK and PI3K by TGF-ß. Collectively, these data confirm that HDACs, and in particular HDAC3, are required for activation of the ERK and PI3K signalling pathways by TGF-ß and for the subsequent gene induction dependent on these signalling pathways

    The majority of autosomal recessive nanophthalmos and posterior microphthalmia can be attributed to biallelic sequence and structural variants in MFRP and PRSS56

    Get PDF
    This study aimed to genetically and clinically characterize a unique cohort of 25 individuals from 21 unrelated families with autosomal recessive nanophthalmos (NNO) and posterior microphthalmia (MCOP) from diferent ethnicities. An ophthalmological assessment in all families was followed by targeted MFRP and PRSS56 testing in 20 families and whole-genome sequencing in one family. Three families underwent homozygosity mapping using SNP arrays. Eight distinct MFRP mutations were found in 10/21 families (47.6%), fve of which are novel including a deletion spanning the 5′ untranslated region and the frst coding part of exon 1. Most cases harbored homozygous mutations (8/10), while a compound heterozygous and a monoallelic genotype were identifed in the remaining ones (2/10). Six distinct PRSS56 mutations were found in 9/21 (42.9%) families, three of which are novel. Similarly, homozygous mutations were found in all but one, leaving 2/21 families (9.5%) without a molecular diagnosis. Clinically, all patients had reduced visual acuity, hyperopia, short axial length and crowded optic discs. Retinitis pigmentosa was observed in 5/10 (50%) of the MFRP group, papillomacular folds in 12/19 (63.2%) of MCOP and in 3/6 (50%) of NNO cases. A considerable phenotypic variability was observed, with no clear genotype-phenotype correlations. Overall, our study represents the largest NNO and MCOP cohort reported to date and provides a genetic diagnosis in 19/21 families (90.5%), including the frst MFRP genomic rearrangement, ofering opportunities for gene-based therapies in MFRP-associated disease. Finally, our study underscores the importance of sequence and copy number analysis of the MFRP and PRSS56 genes in MCOP and NNO

    The effects of knock-down resistance mutations and alternative splicing on voltage-gated sodium channels in Musca domestica and Drosophila melanogaster

    Get PDF
    © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Voltage-gated sodium channels (VGSCs) are a major target site for the action of pyrethroid insecticides and resistance to pyrethroids has been ascribed to mutations in the VGSC gene. VGSCs in insects are encoded by only one gene and their structural and functional diversity results from posttranscriptional modification, particularly, alternative splicing. Using whole cell patch clamping of neurons from pyrethroid susceptible (wild-type) and resistant strains (s-kdr) of housefly, Musca domestica, we have shown that the V50 for activation and steady state inactivation of sodium currents (INa+) is significantly depolarised in s-kdr neurons compared with wild-type and that 10 nM deltamethrin significantly hyperpolarised both of these parameters in the neurons from susceptible but not s-kdr houseflies. Similarly, tail currents were more sensitive to deltamethrin in wild-type neurons (EC15 14.5 nM) than s-kdr (EC15 133 nM). We also found that in both strains, INa+ are of two types: a strongly inactivating (to 6.8% of peak) current, and a more persistent (to 17.1% of peak) current. Analysis of tail currents showed that the persistent current in both strains (wild-type EC15 5.84 nM) was more sensitive to deltamethrin than was the inactivating type (wild-type EC15 35.1 nM). It has been shown previously, that the presence of exon l in the Drosophila melanogaster VGSC gives rise to a more persistent INa+ than does the alternative splice variant containing exon k and we used PCR with housefly head cDNA to confirm the presence of the housefly orthologues of splice variants k and l. Their effect on deltamethrin sensitivity was determined by examining INa+ in Xenopus oocytes expressing either the k or l variants of the Drosophila para VGSC. Analysis of tail currents, in the presence of various concentrations of deltamethrin, showed that the l splice variant was significantly more sensitive (EC50 42 nM) than the k splice variant (EC50 866 nM). We conclude that in addition to the presence of point mutations, target site resistance to pyrethroids may involve the differential expression of splice variants

    Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

    Get PDF
    As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013