19 research outputs found

    Evaluation of Total Column Water Vapour Products from Satellite Observations and Reanalyses within the GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment

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    Since 2011 the Global Energy and Water cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) Water Vapor Assessment (G-VAP) has provided performance analyses for state-of-the-art reanalysis and satellite water vapour products to the GEWEX Data and Analysis Panel (GDAP) and the user community in general. A significant component of the work undertaken by G-VAP is to characterise the quality and uncertainty of these water vapour records to; i) ensure full exploitation and ii) avoid incorrect use or interpretation of results. This study presents results from the second phase of G-VAP, where we have extended and expanded our analysis of Total Column Water Vapour (TCWV) from phase 1, in conjunction with updating the G-VAP archive. For version 2 of the archive, we consider 28 freely available and mature satellite and reanalysis data products, remapped to a regular longitude-latitude grid of 2 • × 2 • , and on monthly time steps between January 1979 and December 2019. We first analysed all records for a 'common' short period of five years (2005-2009), focusing on variability (spatial & seasonal) and deviation from the ensemble mean. We observed that clear-sky daytime-only satellite products were generally drier than the ensemble mean, and seasonal variability/disparity in several regions up to 12 kg/m 2 related to original spatial resolution and temporal sampling. For 11 of the 28 data records, further analysis was undertaken between 1988-2014. Within this 'long period', key results show i) trends between-1.18±0.68 to 3.82±3.94 kg/m 2 /decade and-0.39±0.27 to 1.24±0.85 kg/m 2 /decade were found over ice-free global oceans and land surfaces respectively, and ii) regression coefficients of TWCV against surface temperatures of 6.17±0.24 to 27.02±0.51 %/K over oceans (using sea surface temperature) and 3.00±0.17 to 7.77±0.16 %/K over land (using surface air temperature). It is important to note that trends estimated within G-VAP are used to identify issues in the data records rather than analyse climate change. Additionally, breakpoints have been identified and characterised for both land and ocean surfaces within this period. Finally, we present a spatial analysis of correlations to six climate indices within the 'long period', highlighting regional areas of significant positive and negative correlation and the level of agreement among records

    Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures

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    In this study, we detect and track extratropical cyclones using 6-hourly mean sea level pressure data taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) over the period 1951–2015 and compare them with those in the Interim and fifth generation of ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2018. Three indices were employed to characterize cyclone activity, including cyclone count, cyclone intensity, and a cyclone activity index (CAI) that combines the count and intensity. The results show that the cyclone indices in the three datasets have comparable annual climatologies and seasonal evolution over the northern extratropical land and ocean in recent decades. Based on the cyclone indices over the period 1951–2010 in 80 ensemble members of 20CRv3, cyclone count and intensity are negatively correlated in winter and tend to be positively and weakly correlated in summer. The interannual CAI variability is dominated by the cyclone count variability. Regional mean cyclone activity can be well represented using the ensemble average cyclone index. We then examined the linkage of the cyclone activity in 20CRv3 and observed cold and warm extremes over Eurasia and North America over the period 1951–2010. In winter, the principal components of interannual cold and warm extreme anomalies are more correlated with the regional mean cyclone count index over Eurasia, while they are more correlated with the cyclone intensity index over North America. The temperature anomalies associated with the regional and ensemble mean cyclone count index explain about 10% (20%) of interannual cold (warm) extreme variances averaged over Eurasia. The temperature anomalies associated with the mean cyclone intensity explain about 10% of interannual cold and warm extreme variances over North America. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with cyclone activity and the induced temperature advection drive temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America. In summer, circulation and thermal advection anomalies associated with cyclone activity are weak over the two continents. Hence, that season’s relationship between cyclone activity and extreme temperature variability is weak

    Meteorological data rescue: citizen science lessons learned from Southern Weather Discovery

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    Daily weather reconstructions (called "reanalyses") can help improve our understanding of meteorology and long-term climate changes. Adding undigitized historical weather observations to the datasets that underpin reanalyses is desirable; however, time requirements to capture those data from a range of archives is usually limited. Southern Weather Discovery is a citizen science data rescue project that recovered tabulated handwritten meteorological observations from ship log books and land-based stations spanning New Zealand, the Southern Ocean, and Antarctica. We describe the Zooniverse-hosted Southern Weather Discovery campaign, highlight promotion tactics, and replicate keying levels needed to obtain 100% complete transcribed datasets with minimal type 1 and type 2 transcription errors. Rescued weather observations can augment optical character recognition (OCR) text recognition libraries. Closer links between citizen science data rescue and OCR-based scientific data capture will accelerate weather reconstruction improvements, which can be harnessed to mitigate impacts on communities and infrastructure from weather extremes

    Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability

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    International audienceEuropean flood frequency and intensity change on a multidecadal scale. Floods were more frequent in the 19th (central Europe) and early 20th century (western Europe) than during the mid-20th century and again more frequent since the 1970s. The causes of this variability are not well understood and the relation to climate change is unclear. Palaeoclimate studies from the northern Alps suggest that past flood-rich periods coincided with cold periods. In contrast, some studies suggest that more floods might occur in a future, warming world. Here we address the contribution of atmospheric circulation and of warming to multidecadal flood variability. For this, we use long series of annual peak streamflow, daily weather data, reanalyses, and reconstructions. We show that both changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture content affected multidecadal changes of annual peak streamflow in central and western Europe over the past two centuries. We find that during the 19th and early 20th century, atmospheric circulation changes led to high peak values of moisture flux convergence. The circulation was more conducive to strong and long-lasting precipitation events than in the mid-20th century. These changes are also partly reflected in the seasonal mean circulation and reproduced in atmospheric model simulations, pointing to a possible role of oceanic variability. For the period after 1980, increasing moisture content in a warming atmosphere led to extremely high moisture flux convergence. Thus, the main atmospheric driver of flood variability changed from atmospheric circulation variability to water vapour increase.La fréquence et l'intensité des inondations en Europe changent à une échelle multidécennale. Les inondations étaient plus fréquentes au 19ème (Europe centrale) et au début du 20ème siècle (Europe occidentale) qu'au milieu du 20ème siècle et à nouveau plus fréquentes depuis les années 1970. Les causes de cette variabilité ne sont pas bien comprises et la relation avec le changement climatique n'est pas claire. Les études paléoclimatiques menées dans les Alpes du Nord suggèrent que les périodes passées riches en inondations coïncidaient avec des périodes froides. En revanche, certaines études suggèrent que davantage d'inondations pourraient se produire dans un monde futur en réchauffement. Nous abordons ici la contribution de la circulation atmosphérique et du réchauffement à la variabilité multidécennale des inondations. Pour cela, nous utilisons de longues séries de débit maximal annuel, des données météorologiques quotidiennes, des réanalyses et des reconstructions climatiques. Nous montrons que les changements de la circulation atmosphérique et du contenu en humidité ont affecté les changements multidécennaux du débit maximal annuel en Europe centrale et occidentale au cours des deux derniers siècles. Nous constatons qu'au cours du 19ème et du début du 20ème siècle, les changements de la circulation atmosphérique ont conduit à des valeurs de pointe élevées de convergence du flux d'humidité. La circulation était plus propice à des événements de précipitations forts et durables qu'au milieu du 20e siècle. Ces changements se reflètent également en partie dans la circulation moyenne saisonnière et sont reproduits dans les simulations des modèles atmosphériques, ce qui indique un rôle possible de la variabilité océanique. Pour la période après 1980, l'augmentation de la teneur en humidité dans une atmosphère qui se réchauffe a conduit à une convergence extrêmement élevée des flux d'humidité. Ainsi, le principal moteur atmosphérique de la variabilité des crues est passé de la variabilité de la circulation atmosphérique à l'augmentation de la vapeur d'eau

    An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3

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    The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a ‘‘best estimate’’ of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.The research work of R. Przybylak and P. Wyszynski was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland (Grants DEC-2012/07/B/ST10/04002 and 2015/19/B/ST10/02933)

    Merulinic acid C overcomes gentamicin resistance in Enterococcus faecium

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    International audienceEnterococci are gram-positive, widespread nosocomial pathogens that in recent years have developed resistance to various commonly employed antibiotics. Since finding new infection-control agents based on secondary metabolites from organisms has proved successful for decades, natural products are potentially useful sources of compounds with activity against enterococci. Herein are reported the results of a natural product library screening based on a whole-cell assay against a gram-positive model organism, which led to the isolation of a series of anacardic acids identified by analysis of their spectroscopic data and by chemical derivatizations. Merulinic acid C was identified as the most active anacardic acid derivative obtained against antibiotic-resistant enterococci. Fluorescence microscopy analyses showed that merulinic acid C targets the bacterial membrane without affecting the peptidoglycan and causes rapid cellular ATP leakage from cells. Merulinic acid C was shown to be synergistic with gentamicin against Enterococcus faecium, indicating that this compound could inspire the development of new antibiotic combinations effective against drug-resistant pathogens

    Uncertainties in Ocean Latent Heat Flux Variations over Recent Decades in Satellite-Based Estimates and Reduced Observation Reanalyses

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    Four state-of-the-art satellite-based estimates of ocean surface latent heat fluxes (LHFs) extending over three decades are analyzed, focusing on the interannual variability and trends of near-global averages and regional patterns. Detailed intercomparisons are made with other datasets including 1) reduced observation reanalyses (RedObs) whose exclusion of satellite data renders them an important independent diagnostic tool; 2) a moisture budget residual LHF estimate using reanalysis moisture transport, atmospheric storage, and satellite precipitation; 3) the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5); 4) Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) singlesensor passive microwave and scatterometer wind speed retrievals; and 5) several sea surface temperature (SST) datasets. Large disparities remain in near-global satellite LHF trends and their regional expression over the 1990–2010 period, during which time the interdecadal Pacific oscillation changed sign. The budget residual diagnostics support the smaller RedObs LHF trends. The satellites, ERA5, and RedObs are reasonably consistent in identifying contributions by the 10-m wind speed variations to the LHF trend patterns. However, contributions by the near-surface vertical humidity gradient from satellites and ERA5 trend upward in time with respect to the RedObs ensemble and show less agreement in trend patterns. Problems with wind speed retrievals from Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder satellite sensors, excessive upward trends in trends in Optimal Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST AVHRR-Only) data used in most satellite LHF estimates, and uncertainties associated with poor satellite coverage before the mid-1990s are noted. Possibly erroneous trends are also identified in ERA5 LHF associated with the onset of scatterometer wind data assimilation in the early 1990s

    Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system

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    Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields

    Assimilating Lagrangian data for parameter estimation in a multiple-inlet system

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    © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ocean Modelling 113 (2017): 131-144, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.001.Numerical models of ocean circulation often depend on parameters that must be tuned to match either results from laboratory experiments or field observations. This study demonstrates that an initial, suboptimal estimate of a parameter in a model of a small bay can be improved by assimilating observations of trajectories of passive drifters. The parameter of interest is the Manning's n coefficient of friction in a small inlet of the bay, which had been tuned to match velocity observations from 2011. In 2013, the geometry of the inlet had changed, and the friction parameter was no longer optimal. Results from synthetic experiments demonstrate that assimilation of drifter trajectories improves the estimate of n, both when the drifters are located in the same region as the parameter of interest and when the drifters are located in a different region of the bay. Real drifter trajectories from field experiments in 2013 also are assimilated, and results are compared with velocity observations. When the real drifters are located away from the region of interest, the results depend on the time interval (with respect to the full available trajectories) over which assimilation is performed. When the drifters are in the same region as the parameter of interest, the value of n estimated with assimilation yields improved estimates of velocity throughout the bay.This work was supported by: Department of Defense Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) [grant N000141110087], administered by the Office of Naval Research; the National Science Foundation (NSF); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); NOAA's Climate Program Office; the Department of Energy's Office for Science (BER); and the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Research & Development)

    Assimilating Lagrangian data for parameter estimation in a multiple-inlet system

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    Numerical models of ocean circulation often depend on parameters that must be tuned to match either results from laboratory experiments or field observations. This study demonstrates that an initial, suboptimal estimate of a parameter in a model of a small bay can be improved by assimilating observations of trajectories of passive drifters. The parameter of interest is the Manning's n coefficient of friction in a small inlet of the bay, which had been tuned to match velocity observations from 2011. In 2013, the geometry of the inlet had changed, and the friction parameter was no longer optimal. Results from synthetic experiments demonstrate that assimilation of drifter trajectories improves the estimate of n, both when the drifters are located in the same region as the parameter of interest and when the drifters are located in a different region of the bay. Real drifter trajectories from field experiments in 2013 also are assimilated, and results are compared with velocity observations. When the real drifters are located away from the region of interest, the results depend on the time interval (with respect to the full available trajectories) over which assimilation is performed. When the drifters are in the same region as the parameter of interest, the value of n estimated with assimilation yields improved estimates of velocity throughout the bay.This work was supported by: Department of Defense Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) [grant N000141110087], administered by the Office of Naval Research; the National Science Foundation (NSF); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); NOAA's Climate Program Office; the Department of Energy's Office for Science (BER); and the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Research & Development)
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