2 research outputs found

    Evaluation de l'impact de la politique monétaire sur la volatilité des cours boursiers : Réexamen de la relation sous-jacente à court et à long terme

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    This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility in Morocco. The study is based on the analysis of monthly data covering the period from 2002 to 2020, collected from the Moroccan Central Bank (BAM) and the Casablanca Stock Exchange (BVC). The objective is to understand how the decisions of the Central Bank influence financial markets and the national economy. The analysis relies on advanced econometric methods, including tests for determining the optimal lag and cointegration. The results reveal that the monetary policy conducted by BAM has a significant impact on long-term stock market volatility. Variations in interbank interest rates, M3 money supply, private sector credit (CSP), and inflation rate (INF) are associated with sustained fluctuations in the MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange. The study also identifies the transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy influences stock markets. Changes in interbank interest rates directly impact business investment decisions, affecting profitability and stock prices. Additionally, M3 money supply and private sector credit CSP act as indirect channels by influencing economic activity and investor demand for equities.   Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stock Price Volatility, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). JEL Classification : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Paper type: Empirical research.Ce papier se penche sur l'impact de la politique monĂ©taire sur la volatilitĂ© des cours boursiers au Maroc. L'Ă©tude repose sur l'analyse de donnĂ©es mensuelles couvrant la pĂ©riode de 2002 Ă  2020, collectĂ©es auprès de la Banque centrale marocaine (BAM) et de la Bourse des valeurs de Casablanca (BVC). L'objectif est de comprendre comment les dĂ©cisions de la Banque centrale influencent les marchĂ©s financiers et l'Ă©conomie nationale. L'analyse repose sur des mĂ©thodes Ă©conomĂ©triques avancĂ©es, notamment les tests de dĂ©termination du retard optimal et de cointĂ©gration. Les rĂ©sultats rĂ©vèlent que la politique monĂ©taire exercĂ©e par la BAM a un impact significatif sur la volatilitĂ© des cours boursiers Ă  long terme. Les variations des taux d'intĂ©rĂŞt interbancaires, de la masse monĂ©taire M3, du crĂ©dit au secteur privĂ© (CSP) et du taux d'inflation (INF) sont associĂ©es Ă  des fluctuations durables de l'indice MASI de la Bourse de Casablanca. L'Ă©tude identifie Ă©galement les mĂ©canismes de transmission par lesquels la politique monĂ©taire influence les marchĂ©s boursiers. Les variations des taux d'intĂ©rĂŞt interbancaires ont un impact direct sur les dĂ©cisions d'investissement des entreprises, ce qui influe sur la rentabilitĂ© et les cours boursiers. De plus, la masse monĂ©taire M3 et le crĂ©dit au secteur privĂ© CSP agissent comme des canaux indirects en influençant l'activitĂ© Ă©conomique et la demande d'investisseurs en actions   Mots clĂ©s : Politique monĂ©taire, volatilitĂ© des prix boursiers, VECM. Classification JEL : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Type de l’article : Recherche appliquĂ©e

    Barremian intracontinental rift and Aptian Atlantic transgression in the northern boundary of the Central High Atlas (Morocco)

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    International audienceThe northern boundary of the Central High Atlas was affected by a transgression during the Aptian that reached the junction zone between the Middle and the High Atlas. In this sector (Naour-Aghbala) which corresponds to the presumed closure zone of this Aptian Atlantic marine trough, the sedimentary record reveals a strong dependence on the regional structural framework. The Barremian continental sedimentation is concentrated in an elongated W-E highly subsiding zone, limited to the south by the polyphase Aghbala-Afourer Fault Zone (AAFZ), which corresponds to the contact between the main Atlasic Belt and its northern boundary (Beni Mellal Atlas). The Aptian deposits preserve similar littoral marine characters from West to East without showing any confined facies, which could evoke the eastern limit of the gulf. On the other hand, towards the North, the Aptian layers rapidly change from marine to lagoonal then to continental facies. The paleogeographic boundary of the Aptian shoreline, oriented E-W, is locally controlled by the North El Ksiba Fault (NKF) in the North. The Aptian Atlantic transgression, closely linked to the narrow Barremian graben, shows a wide northward extension of the marine sedimentary area. The Barremian graben highlighted in the Aghbala-Naour area represents only a segment of a major east-west intracontinental rift that continued eastward with the more recent frontal thrust of the eastern Moroccan High Atlas. This faulted structure was the penetration axis of a double transgression: from the Tethys to the East and from the Atlantic Ocean to the West on the emerged Atlasic domain