168 research outputs found

    The Intensity of Convergence Process in the European Union

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    The objective of this research is to analyze the differences between Romania and the European Union regarding the convergence process. In this paper we were interested in determining the forecasting horizon for which Romania, in certain conditions, might have a value of GDP per capita that is closer to the average of EU (25 countries) and we obtained that 18 years are necessary for Romania to achieve the convergence compared to EU average of GDP per capita. The co-integration approach suggested that in the last 15 years there is a divergence of the Romania economic growth and the EU-25 average. This research might be developed by taking into account other measures of economic convergence

    The economic convergence in European Union based on concentration and entropy approach

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    The main objective of this study is to assess the economic convergence in European Union (EU-28) using a frequent approach in literature based on Gini coefficients, Lorernz curve and Theil’s index. On the other hand, the entropy approach is quite new in the convergence field, but the results are relevant. The assumption of economic convergence is confirmed for EU-28 in 2003-2012. According to Gini coefficient values the degree of concentration has decreased on the analyzed period, but there is an insignificant decrease in 2012 compared to 2003. The value of Theil’s index also confirmed the convergence. In the convergence analysis the increase in entropy translates into an emphasis of divergence process. In 2012 the entropy is lower than the value of entropy in 2003, the convergence being more relevant in 2012 compared to 2003

    The Unemployment Rate Forecasts Evaluation Using New Aggregated Accuracy Indicators

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    In this study, the unemployment rate forecasts for Romania were assessed using the predictions provided on the horizon 2006-2013 by three experts in forecasting or forecasters (F1, F2 and F3). The absolute and relative accuracy indicators, excepting mean relative absolute error (MRAE) indicated that F3 forecasts are the most accurate on the mentioned horizon. The high value of this indicator brought differences in accuracy hierarchy. New aggregated accuracy indicators were proposed (modified sum of summary statistics- S1, sum of relative accuracy measures- S2 and sum of percentage for directional and sign accuracy- S3). The contradictory results of S1 and S2 were solved by the method of relative distance with respect to the best forecaster that indicated F2 forecasts for unemployment rate forecasts in Romania as the best.  It is clearly that F3 outperformed the other experts as directional and sign accuracy. The Diebold-Mariano test identified F1 predictions as the less accurate, but significant accuracy differences were not found between F3 and F2 predictions

    The evolution of the Romanian insurance market after 2000

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    Considering the qualitative changes in the legislative framework, the Romania’s entrance into the European Union and the recent global economic crisis, the Romanian insurance market is analyzed by considering ten representative insurance companies. A panel autoregressive-model (PVAR) model for the ten insurance companies was constructed for the period 2004-2017. This model suggested that the indemnities paid by the insurance companies negatively affected the liquidity but with a lag of two periods after changes in indemnities. Granger causality test indicated a causal relationship from indemnities variation to gross written premium in the same period. Almost 27% of the variation in indemnities rate is explained by a shock in the rate of gross written premium

    The impact of Brexit on the UK inwards FDI

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    Considering the impact of Brexit on the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United Kingdom, contrary to previous studies from economic literature, this research focused on two proxies for FDI: FDI projects with the associated new and safeguarded jobs and FDI inflows as percent of GDP. Moreover, other methods were used to measure the Brexit impact on the FDI: a gravity model approach based on mixed-effects Poisson models and a counterfactual analysis based on differences-to-differences estimators. The main results indicated that the number of FDI projects might decrease after Brexit by 65% till 90% in 2019. A higher increase by 97% is expected to the number of new and safeguarded jobs. Even if FDI inflows in the UK significantly increased compared to the rest of OECD countries because of the EU membership, Great Britain should follow the model of Norway and Iceland after Brexit in order to avoid significant losses in the FDI inflows

    Quarterly inflation rate target and forecasts in Romania

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    oai:ojs2.jems.sciview.net:article/1In this study, we proposed some inflation rate predictions based on econometric models that performed better than the targets of the National Bank of Romania. Few econometric models (multiple regressions model and a vector-autoregression) were used to predict the quarterly inflation rate in Romania during 2000:Q1-2016:Q4. The GDP growth has a negative impact on inflation rate in Romania, an increase in logarithm of GDP with one percentage point determining a decrease in inflation logarithm with less than 0.1 units according to both proposed models. However, an increase in inflation rate in the previous period determined an increase in this variable in the current period. The inverse of unemployment rate is positively correlated with the index of prices. The causal relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate is reciprocal. In the first period the index of prices evolution is explained only by changes in this variable. The inflation rate volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, the influence decreasing insignificantly in time, not descending under 88%. More than 99% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the own volatility for all lags. The annual forecasts based on these models performed better than the targets on the horizon 2015-2016

    O regionalnim konvergencijskim klubovima u Europskoj uniji

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    The goal of this research is to present the concept of convergence club within the European Union members, starting from the hypothesis that an overall convergence cannot be identified because of the high output disparities between countries and between regions. For the analysis, the concept has been used as a method of regression based on a convergence test that supposes an innovative decomposition of the GDP per capita and enables the endogenous determination of convergence clubs. In order to achieve the objective, the paper undertakes an empirical analysis of GDP per capita convergence for EU 28 members and for 272 regions corresponding to NUTS2 level. The results of the analysis show that at national level, during 1995 – 2012 there are significant differences between foundation members and CEEC economies, while at regional level five convergence clubs were identified. The basic conclusion is that in the conditions of lack of convergence between EU-28 countries, the identification of convergence clubs helps the European Union in reducing the economic disparities across European regions.Cilj ovog istraživanja je predstaviti koncept konvergencijskog kluba unutar članica Europske unije, počevši od pretpostavke da se ukupna konvergencija ne može prepoznati zbog visokih izlaznih razlika između zemalja i između regija. Za analizu se taj koncept koristi kao metoda regresije koja se temelji na konvergencijskom testu koji pretpostavlja inovativnu dekompoziciju BDP po stanovniku što omogućuje endogeno određivanje konvergencije klubova. Da bi se postigao cilj, u radu se provodi empirijska analiza konvergencije BDP-a po stanovniku za članice EU-28 i za 272 regije koje odgovaraju NUTS2 razini. Rezultati analize pokazuju da na nacionalnoj razini, tijekom 1995. – 2012. postoje značajne razlike između država članica osnivača i SIE gospodarstava, a na regionalnoj razini je utvrđeno pet konvergencijskih klubova. Temeljni zaključak je da u uvjetima nedostatka konvergencije zemalja EU-28, identificiranje konvergencijskih klubova pomaže Europskoj uniji u smanjenju ekonomskih razlika diljem europskih regija

    The status of immigrants on Italian labour market in the context of economic decline: Evidence from survey, macroeconomic and big data

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    Considering the impact of economic crisis on Italian labour market, the aim of this paper is to analyse the status of immigrants from Italy in the labour field using more sources of data: survey data from the research “Case study of Labour Force Survey”, macroeconomic data from official statistics of Eurostat and big data associated to Internet queries on Google. Survey analysis for the 20 regions in Italy confirmed the foreign women advantage of finding a job better than foreign men. The decline in the GDP at regional level affected the immigrants, but their searches for jobs on the Internet were significant in explaining the status of immigrants on labour market. The data at national level used in estimating Bayesian generalized ridge regression suggested that the number of unemployed immigrants from Italy since 2008 is explained by changes in risk of poverty or social exclusion, exports of goods and services, housing cost overburden rate, inflation and tax rate on low wage earners and adult participation in learning

    Odnos između ekonomskog rasta i izravnih stranih investicija u vrijeme ekonomske krize u Europskoj uniji

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    The goal of this research is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment inflows in the European Union (EU-28) in the period of the recent economic crisis. Panel data approach and Bayesian techniques are employed to solve the problem of a short set of data (2008–2014). The panel data approaches (panel vector-autoregressive model and Bayesian random effect models) identified a reciprocal and positive relationship between FDI and economic growth in EU-28 starting with 2008. The individual approach based on Bayesian linear regressions identified this tendency as being specific for most of the EU-28 countries. However, there are some countries for which higher FDI did not generate economic growth and some countries where higher GDP did not attract more FDI and FDI did not bring economic growth. According to cluster analysis, the disparities among countries regarding the FDI distribution according to GDP growth and GDP rate distribution according to FDI diminished in 2014 compared to 2008. The basic conclusion is that on overall in the European Union there was a reciprocal relationship between economic growth and FDI since the beginning of the crisis with a tendency of reducing disparities between countries in attracting FDI.Cilj ovog istraživanja je ispitati odnos između ekonomskog rasta i priljeva izravnih stranih investicija (ISI) u Europskoj uniji (EU-28) u razdoblju nedavne gospodarske krize. Panel analize podataka i Bayesove tehnike koriste se za rješavanje problema malog skupa podataka (u razdoblju između 2008. i 2014.). Panel analize podataka (panel vektorski auto-regresijski model i Bayesovi modeli slučajnih učinaka) potvrđuju recipročno pozitivan odnos između ISI-a i gospodarskog rasta u EU-28, počevši s 2008. godinom. Individualni pristup temeljen na Bayesovoj linearnoj regresiji ukazuje na tu tendenciju specifičnu za većinu zemalja EU-28. Međutim, u nekim zemljama viši ISI nije generirao gospodarski rast, u nekim zemljama viši BDP nije privukao veća izravna ulaganja, kao što u nekim zemljama veći ISI nije donio veći gospodarski rast. Prema klaster analizi, u 2014. godini u usporedbi s 2008. godinom smanjena je nejednakost među zemljama u svezi raspodijele ISI-a u odnosu na stopu rasta BDP-a i stopa raspodjele BDP-a u odnosu na ISI. Iz navedenog proizlazi temeljni zaključak da je u Europskoj uniji sveukupan odnos recipročan između gospodarskog rasta i privlačenja izravnih stranih investicija
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