29 research outputs found

    Targeting in development Projects: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned

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    These set of slides were presented at the BEP Seminar "Targeting in Development Projects: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned" held last Oct. 2, 2023 in Cairo, Egyp

    Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

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    Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. In this paper, we combine per capita GDP growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. We find that the pandemic has increased poverty in Africa by 1.5-1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. We also find that countries affected by Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. We review social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, we highlight important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. We finally draw important lessons related to the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic

    Poverty and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

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    Key messages The pandemic increased poverty in Africa by less than expected, approximately 1.5-1.7 percentage points in 2020. Countries affected by Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) experienced the greatest increases in poverty. An emerging literature establishes that social protection programs in Africa during the pandemic had positive impacts and was generally pro-poor, suggesting a key cushion-ing role played by the expansion of social protection on trends in poverty. However, delivering shock-responsive social protection in Africa continues to face im-portant challenges related to targeting, coverage, timeliness, and financing. Early targeting analyses for some countries during the pandemic show that targeting was broadly progressive in some countries and regressive in some other countries

    WP1: Innovations in partnerships, policies and platforms for the efficient, inclusive and climate resilient transformation of agrifood systems

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    From Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa (F2R-CWANA) WP1: Innovations in partnerships, policies and platforms for the efficient, inclusive and climate resilient transformation of agrifood systems Inception Workshop – Morocco May 17, 202

    Egypt’s Takaful Cash Transfer Program: Impacts and recommendations from the second round evaluation

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    Egypt’s national cash transfer program, Takaful, and its sister program Karama covered 17 million poor beneficiaries as of 2022, about 16 percent of the Egyptian population. Takaful was designed in 2015 as a conditional cash transfer program providing income support targeted to the most vulnerable, namely poor families with children under age 18. As one of the largest programs — both in absolute terms and in terms of share of the population covered — in the wave of national cash transfer programs spreading across Africa, as well as an innovator among countries in the Middle East, Egypt’s experience has the potential to serve as a model for these regions. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Solidarity, conducted a first-round evaluation of the program in 2017 to estimate its effects on household well-being (Breisinger et al. 2018). That evaluation found large positive impacts on several outcomes, most notably, household consumption. The second-round evaluation, conducted in 2022, found a shift toward greater investment in physical and human capital among program beneficiaries. This brief summarizes the main findings from that second-round evaluation, noting differences from the first evaluation results and providing key recommendations

    Impact evaluation report: Egypt’s forsa graduation program

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    Forsa, which means “Opportunity” in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the program aims to graduate beneficiaries of the national cash transfer program, the Takaful & Karama Program (TKP), to economic self-reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or sustainable economic enterprises. The 2021 World Bank Economic Inclusion report (Andrews et al. 2021) highlights a recent increase globally in such graduation or economic inclusion programs, which now reaches around 92 million beneficiaries from 20 million households across more than 75 countries. This rapid growth has necessitated an increasing demand for evidence on best practices in graduation program implementation. The newly designed Forsa program is based on the graduation approach, but with innovations drawing from theories of behavioral economics as well as creating a network of active youth volunteers for economic empowerment to reduce costs compared to the standard BRAC-inspired model. Forsa also expands the graduation model to include the option of wage-employment, rather than only focusing on self-employment. Evidence on the impact of job training programs linked to wage employment on both job retention and future earnings is mixed (McKenzie 2017), although most such programs do not include cash assistance. This impact evaluation of the Forsa program in Egypt is intended to contribute to the global evidence on effective graduation program design as well as provide immediate policy-relevant guidance for the Ministry of Social Solidarity. The impact evaluation will measure the degree to which Forsa is successful at increasing household consumption and will investigate which participant groups and program features demonstrate the greatest improvements in household welfare and economic activity

    The Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses

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    This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade

    Forsa pilot evaluation baseline survey results

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    The Forsa program, launched in 2021 by the Egyptian Ministry of Social Solidarity has been designed as a graduation program targeted to current beneficiaries of the Takaful cash transfer program. To understand how well Forsa supports household income generation and to better understand the beneficiary household characteristics which may relate to program success, the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Solidarity is running a randomized control trial of the pilot Forsa program (see IFPRI MENA Regional Program Policy Note 21 for more details on the program and evaluation design). A baseline household survey collected in January-February 2022 provides a detailed picture of the eligible households in the targeted communities, including the employment situation and work-related skills of the household members intending to participate in Forsa. The household survey data was collected in the eight governorates of the pilot: Beni-Suef, Sharqia, Qalyoubia, Luxor, Fayoum, Menia, Souhag, and Assuit. 24 households Forsa-eligible households were surveyed in each of 323 communities: 16 households from the pool of current Takaful beneficiaries and 8 from the pool of Takaful rejected applicants. The final sample size was 7,752 households. Each household was asked whether they were willing to enroll in Forsa and, if so, which household member would participate in the trainings. 83% of sampled eligible households indicated willingness to enroll in Forsa. The large majority of these (77%) indicated a preference for the self-employment track

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to further exacerbate the food insecurity emergency in Yemen

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    The Russia-Ukraine conflict has roiled agricultural markets, particularly the wheat market, which has seen prices rise by 30% since Russia invaded on February 24. This post focuses on the impacts of the crisis on Yemen, whose poverty, civil war, and dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine make it uniquely vulnerable to the current market and supply disruptions. Yemen’s civil war has ravaged the country since 2015, and lately serious impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened its already precarious food security situation. The prevalence of undernourishment, as measured by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), exceeds 45%, and more than half of the population relies on some type of in-kind food assistance.Non-PRIFPRI4; Food Security PortalDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Polic

    Addressing the food crisis in Yemen: The private sector’s key role amid local conflict and global market disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war

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    The Yemen conflict, underway since early 2015, has led to an ongoing, unprecedented humanitarian emergency. Food needs far exceed current consumption levels, with 3.5 million pregnant or breastfeeding women and children under age five suffering from acute malnutrition and up to 19 million people affected by food insecurity in 2022. Since February 2022, meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global supplies of grains and other key agricultural products and driven global food prices higher. Yemen depends heavily on grain imports to feed a population long teetering on the edge of famine. Maintaining wheat flowing into the country and wheat products reaching consumers through private sector importers, processors, and distributors is a critical puzzle piece for managing food security.Non-PRIFPRI4; Food Security PortalDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Polic
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