24 research outputs found

    Shapeshifter

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    Selected artwork for group exhibition. Notions of excess and limitation seem to reoccur in Babak Ghazi’s work. There are so many choices, so much freedom and free will that the options appear to have been exhausted and there is no choice at all. A proliferation of glossy adverts, Versace, Armani, Dior, present models uniformly clad in sunglasses made from fragments of Compact Discs. An early geometric Vidal Sassoon haircut, an image from a photo-shoot with Prince or Grace Jones; emblems of self-definition in Ghazi’s visual lexicon of “the theatre of the self”. The individual appears to be constructed by careful navigation along a path of options, some are ready-made; others are flat-packed or exist as a set of instructions or a variably described possibility, imagined through a creative act. Ghazi’s work frequently takes on this last category as an image of pseudo-transgression, a DIY culture skilfully articulated in terms of its alternativeness, make your own, grow your own, roll your own. In dialogue with a notion of lifestyle tending towards specialised behaviour, Ghazi’s work seems to offer the potential for engaging the viewer in the production of meaning. His sculptures may invite interaction (you can straddle a chair and see your crotch reflected in the mirror behind an image from The Joy of Sex) other works may sample symbols and objects in a hybrid fashion that offers little orientation towards one single interpretation, so that unitary meaning may shift in emphasis, enlarging the capacity to interrelate with other works. Ghazi's work owes a great deal to Pop Art and the latter's inclusion of popular material as both affirmation and critique; like that movement's best-known star, Andy Warhol, he also pushes such material close to abstraction

    The frequency, intensity, and origin of floods in Poland in the 11th–15th centuries based on documentary evidence

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    Documentary evidence is increasingly being recognized as a precious source for assessing flood records. We have used this type of proxy data to identify the occurrence of floods in Poland from the 11th to the 15th centuries. In addition, we estimated the intensity of each flood event using the best-known classifications for Europe (Barriendos and Coeur, 2004; Br´azdil et al., 2006) and assessed their origin based on modified Lambor’s (1954) criteria. The database of floods in Poland contains 166 occurrences in the study period. Most occurred in the 15th century (61.4%). Of the studied regions, Silesia and the Baltic Coast and Pomerania regions were the two most affected by flood events, each accounting for 33–34% of instances. Based on the Br´azdil et al. (2006) classification, 77 of the recorded floods are above-average or supra-regional. Also, the indexation of floods based on Barriendos and Coeur (2004) demonstrated that 99 were extraordinary flood events. Rain and its subtypes were the leading causes of floods, with 79 records (47.6%). Flood occurrence in Poland exhibited good spatial coherency with neighboring countries. The updated and most complete inventory of floods in medieval Poland that we present here with a detailed analysis of their frequency, intensity and origin, improves the existing knowledge about this phenomenon in Central Europe. The results of this study, similarly to many other previous studies, also confirm the great capacity for documentary evidence to provide valuable and reliable information about flood records for the pre-instrumental period

    An assessment of flood occurrences in Poland in the 16th century

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    Study region The contemporary area of Poland comprises six main regions: Baltic Coast and Pomerania, Masuria-Podlasie, Greater Poland, Masovia, Silesia, Lesser Poland, and three main river basins, the Vistula, the Oder, and the Baltic Coast. Study focus To fill the knowledge gap for historical floods in Poland we used documentary evidence as reliable sources to assess historical floods in Poland during the 16th century. New hydrological insights for the region This research is one of the most novel and comprehensive studies of historical floods in Europe, spanning floods in Poland registered in the 16th century. Specifically, in addition to the list of flood occurrence records, we also provide detailed information about the historical sources used (including estimations of credibility), extracted weather notes, and indexation of flood intensity and origins. The results showed that, based on documentary evidence, 294 floods occurred in Poland in the study period. Most were recorded in the Silesia region (170 floods). The intensity of floods estimated based on the Brázdil et al. (2006b) and Barriendos and Coeur (2004) classifications indicated that most belong to “above-average or supra-regional flood” and “extraordinary” categories, respectively. Classifications of the origin of floods based on Lambor (1954) revealed that the main reason for flood occurrences in Poland during the 16th century was rain and its subtypes (torrential, frontal, and long-lasting, accounting for 53% of floods)

    Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

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    Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

    Effect of Intermediate-Dose vs Standard-Dose Prophylactic Anticoagulation on Thrombotic Events, Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Treatment, or Mortality among Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: The INSPIRATION Randomized Clinical Trial

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    Importance: Thrombotic events are commonly reported in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Limited data exist to guide the intensity of antithrombotic prophylaxis. Objective: To evaluate the effects of intermediate-dose vs standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter randomized trial with a 2 � 2 factorial design performed in 10 academic centers in Iran comparing intermediate-dose vs standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation (first hypothesis) and statin therapy vs matching placebo (second hypothesis; not reported in this article) among adult patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19. Patients were recruited between July 29, 2020, and November 19, 2020. The final follow-up date for the 30-day primary outcome was December 19, 2020. Interventions: Intermediate-dose (enoxaparin, 1 mg/kg daily) (n = 276) vs standard prophylactic anticoagulation (enoxaparin, 40 mg daily) (n = 286), with modification according to body weight and creatinine clearance. The assigned treatments were planned to be continued until completion of 30-day follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of venous or arterial thrombosis, treatment with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or mortality within 30 days, assessed in randomized patients who met the eligibility criteria and received at least 1 dose of the assigned treatment. Prespecified safety outcomes included major bleeding according to the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (type 3 or 5 definition), powered for noninferiority (a noninferiority margin of 1.8 based on odds ratio), and severe thrombocytopenia (platelet count <20 �103/µL). All outcomes were blindly adjudicated. Results: Among 600 randomized patients, 562 (93.7) were included in the primary analysis (median interquartile range age, 62 50-71 years; 237 42.2% women). The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 126 patients (45.7%) in the intermediate-dose group and 126 patients (44.1%) in the standard-dose prophylaxis group (absolute risk difference, 1.5% 95% CI,-6.6% to 9.8%; odds ratio, 1.06 95% CI, 0.76-1.48; P =.70). Major bleeding occurred in 7 patients (2.5%) in the intermediate-dose group and 4 patients (1.4%) in the standard-dose prophylaxis group (risk difference, 1.1% 1-sided 97.5% CI,-� to 3.4%; odds ratio, 1.83 1-sided 97.5% CI, 0.00-5.93), not meeting the noninferiority criteria (P for noninferiority >.99). Severe thrombocytopenia occurred only in patients assigned to the intermediate-dose group (6 vs 0 patients; risk difference, 2.2% 95% CI, 0.4%-3.8%; P =.01). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19, intermediate-dose prophylactic anticoagulation, compared with standard-dose prophylactic anticoagulation, did not result in a significant difference in the primary outcome of a composite of adjudicated venous or arterial thrombosis, treatment with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or mortality within 30 days. These results do not support the routine empirical use of intermediate-dose prophylactic anticoagulation in unselected patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04486508. © 2021 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

    Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

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    Abstract Climate change is exacerbating the risk of the occurrence of extreme weather. This study has projected the change in mean and extreme climate conditions in Central Poland during near-future (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), and far-future (2076–2100) periods under two climate-change scenarios in six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that, compared to the historical reference period (1990–2014), Central Poland will experience an increase in temperature and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century. It is expected that the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation totals will increase by 1–4.8 °C and 2–7.5%, respectively. Furthermore, it is projected that the average number of hot, very hot days and extremely hot days (Tmax > 25 °C, > 30 °C, and > 35 °C), tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C), and extremely high daily precipitation (> 10 mm, > 20 mm and > 30 mm) will also increase, while the average number of slight frost days (Tmin < 0 °C), and frost and severe frost days (Tmax < 0 °C, Tmax <  − 10 °C) will decline on average by the end of the twenty-first century. Therefore, it is essential for policymakers to take some appropriate measurements and strategies in advance to strengthen resilience to extreme climate events

    Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

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    Future changes (2015–2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more “Extremely dry” events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of “Extremely dry” months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of “Extremely wet” months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues

    Projection of future meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

    No full text
    Abstract Future changes (2015–2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more “Extremely dry” events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of “Extremely dry” months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of “Extremely wet” months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues

    A Proposed Approach towards Quantifying the Resilience of Water Systems to the Potential Climate Change in the Lali Region, Southwest Iran

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    Computing the resilience of water resources, especially groundwater, has hitherto presented difficulties. This study highlights the calculation of the resilience of water resources in the small-scale Lali region, southwest Iran, to potential climate change in the base (1961&ndash;1990) and future (2021&ndash;2050) time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Lali region is eminently suitable for comparing the resilience of alluvial groundwater (Pali aquifer), karst groundwater (Bibitarkhoun spring and the observation wells W1, W2 and W3) and surface water (Taraz-Harkesh stream). The log-normal distribution of the mean annual groundwater level and discharge rate of the water resources was initially calculated. Subsequently, different conditions from extremely dry to extremely wet were assigned to the different years for every water system. Finally, the resilience values of the water systems were quantified as a number between zero and one, such that they can be explicitly compared. The Pali alluvial aquifer demonstrated the maximum resilience, i.e., 1, to the future climate change. The Taraz-Harkesh stream, which is fed by the alluvial aquifer and the Bibitarkhoun karst spring, which is the largest spring of the Lali region, depicted average resilience of 0.79 and 0.59, respectively. Regarding the karstic observation wells, W1 being located in the recharge zone had the lowest resilience (i.e., 0.52), W3 being located in the discharge zone had the most resilience (i.e., 1) and W2 being located between W1 and W3 had an intermediate resilience (i.e., 0.60) to future climate change
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